slimboyfat

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Posts by slimboyfat

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  117

  2017 Yearbook released

  by bohm in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i saw this on reddit:.

  https://www.reddit.com/r/exjw/comments/5mlgsm/2017_yearbook_of_jehovahs_witnesses/.

  overall the numbers are better than last year (1.8% growth compared to 1.5% last year -- as i predicted ;-) ) with an increase in all major figures including 1300 more congregations (i assume this is not physical kingdom halls?).

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  slimboyfat

  The average for Japan in those years are not the figures you give.
• 
  117

  2017 Yearbook released

  by bohm in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i saw this on reddit:.

  https://www.reddit.com/r/exjw/comments/5mlgsm/2017_yearbook_of_jehovahs_witnesses/.

  overall the numbers are better than last year (1.8% growth compared to 1.5% last year -- as i predicted ;-) ) with an increase in all major figures including 1300 more congregations (i assume this is not physical kingdom halls?).

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  slimboyfat

  The reduction in branch staff is a huge statistic - a 24% drop in one year! This must be unprecedented.

  Plus the reduction in spending on travelling overseers, missionaries and special pioneers, a massive 10% drop. I wonder how they managed that, considering it must be difficult to reduce the number of COs, and there can't be an awful lot of missionaries and special pioneers. Did they get rid of special pioneers? (After promising to look after retired COs in this way?) Or did they reduce the amount of money they give individual COs, special pioneers and missionaries.
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  117

  2017 Yearbook released

  by bohm in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i saw this on reddit:.

  https://www.reddit.com/r/exjw/comments/5mlgsm/2017_yearbook_of_jehovahs_witnesses/.

  overall the numbers are better than last year (1.8% growth compared to 1.5% last year -- as i predicted ;-) ) with an increase in all major figures including 1300 more congregations (i assume this is not physical kingdom halls?).

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  slimboyfat

  berryjerry those figures don't look right.

  For example Japan decreased from 214,523 (2015) to 213,818 (2016) in terms of average publishers and from 215,216 (2015) to 214,173 (2016) in terms of peak publishers.

  You seem to be comparing peak and average rather than different years in this instance. Some others looks wrong too at a quick glance.

  I think the real figures are a bit worse than in your table.
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  57

  Will Donald Trump Be Impeached Before His Term Ends?

  by Brokeback Watchtower in

  1. social
  2. current

  i'm thinking his willful failure to be briefed by the cia about russian election tampering and not understanding diplomatic protocall.

  making off handed statements without proper research about the mater.

  he's an outsider when it comes to running the government that will make big mistakes at every turn because he seems clueless when it comes to running a government.. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/michael-moore-predicts-trump-impeach-resign_us_58261464e4b0c4b63b0c6dee.

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  slimboyfat

  Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?

  Personally I'd feel safer for the fate of humanity if he was impeached before his term even begins!
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  117

  2017 Yearbook released

  by bohm in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i saw this on reddit:.

  https://www.reddit.com/r/exjw/comments/5mlgsm/2017_yearbook_of_jehovahs_witnesses/.

  overall the numbers are better than last year (1.8% growth compared to 1.5% last year -- as i predicted ;-) ) with an increase in all major figures including 1300 more congregations (i assume this is not physical kingdom halls?).

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  slimboyfat

  No doubt there is growth in the Congo, but it's not possible to tell if the figure for last year was accurate, or the figure for this year, or neither. So in terms of global growth it's probably best to ignore it at the moment because inclusion very likely creates a false impression of the global trend.

  Another thing about the Congo: it is a country which has had significant independent "Watchtower" movements in the past. I don't know if these are still active, but it is possible that the definition of a JW adherent is slightly more fluid in this region than we are accustomed to elsewhere, such that congregations may be moved inside or outside the organisational umbrella from one year to the next. If so it is possible that a large increase in any given year represents reconnection of the official Watchtower organisation with pre-existing independent congregations.
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  117

  2017 Yearbook released

  by bohm in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i saw this on reddit:.

  https://www.reddit.com/r/exjw/comments/5mlgsm/2017_yearbook_of_jehovahs_witnesses/.

  overall the numbers are better than last year (1.8% growth compared to 1.5% last year -- as i predicted ;-) ) with an increase in all major figures including 1300 more congregations (i assume this is not physical kingdom halls?).

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  slimboyfat

  If the publisher figure for the Democratic Repblic of Congo was the result of migration across borders it should be easy to spot where around 38,000 publishers have been lost from a neighbouring country. I can't see any indication of that.

  It seems to me they have got issues with data collection for the Congo and therefore absolute figures and fluctuations are not reliable for this country. I would argue that removing the figure from the total might therefore give a more accurate picture of global growth. If so, worldwide growth this year is slightly down on last year.
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  117

  2017 Yearbook released

  by bohm in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i saw this on reddit:.

  https://www.reddit.com/r/exjw/comments/5mlgsm/2017_yearbook_of_jehovahs_witnesses/.

  overall the numbers are better than last year (1.8% growth compared to 1.5% last year -- as i predicted ;-) ) with an increase in all major figures including 1300 more congregations (i assume this is not physical kingdom halls?).

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  slimboyfat

  bohm I have made the argument elsewhere that congregation number is the best measure of growth or decline that there is for JWs (or religions generally) for a number of reasons:

  1. Unlike almost every other figure, it cannot easily be faked. Congregation names, locations, and meeting times are publicly listed. If they claimed more congregations than actually exist they would get caught.

  2. Definitions of everything change over time: publisher (15 minutes), pioneer (how many hours?), Bible Study (door step study, family study?), making diachronic analysis sometimes difficult. Among all the data that are collected there is a good argument to be made that the definition of a "congregation" is among the more stable.

  3. Another way of looking at the issue is that growth or decline involves slightly more than simply number of adherents. There is the component of commitment and enthusiasm to consider. And the number of congregations captures this slightly better than the pure publisher number. Because it takes commitment to form and maintain a congregation and to fulfill all the duties associated with a congregation. If the number of congregations begins to decline before the publisher number declines (as is often the case in various countries) this tells us something important and is indicative of "decline" in a broader sense, I would suggest.

  4. The countries that are showing real decline show that decline most severely in the number of congregations. Take Japan for example that has declined by around 3 or 4% in terms of publishers, but by over 20% in terms of number of congregations. That's a huge indication of decline that is somewhat masked by the publisher figure.

  5. Plus, and this is one of the best reasons for focussing on congregation number in my view, it makes JW figures easily comparable with other religions. It is easy to get bogged down comparing JWs with other religions such as Mormons or Baptists or whatever, because they have wildly different concepts of: adherents, members, publishers and so on. But the concept of a "congregation" is common to all and remarkably similar. Mormon claims to have more members than JWs in the UK, for example, are belied by the fact that they have fewer than half the number of congregations. Plus over time, no organisation that is truly growing will decrease in terms of number of congregations.

  Quite simply congregation number is the best measure of growth across time and in comparison with other religious groups.
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  117

  2017 Yearbook released

  by bohm in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i saw this on reddit:.

  https://www.reddit.com/r/exjw/comments/5mlgsm/2017_yearbook_of_jehovahs_witnesses/.

  overall the numbers are better than last year (1.8% growth compared to 1.5% last year -- as i predicted ;-) ) with an increase in all major figures including 1300 more congregations (i assume this is not physical kingdom halls?).

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  3. 
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  slimboyfat

  There's something very strange going on in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Last year they decreased by 2% and this year they they increased by 22%, meaning that this one country adds 38,000 publishers to the overall increase for the year.

  If we remove the Democratic Republic of Congo from the overall figures, growth for last year would still have been 1.5% but the increase for this year would have been just 1.3% instead of 1.8%.

  If you ignore the Republic of Congo the overall figures don't look very good. In particular it is very interesting to note that the number of congregations is beginning to decrease in a number of countries. In my opinion this is the most significant development and it is the key number to keep an eye on for decline.

  The peak publisher figure for the United States is down slightly from last year. Plus the number of congregations is down in the United States. Is that the first time ever there has been a decrease in congregations in the United States?
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  36

  An interesting reasoning for the existence of God (from JW public talk)

  by anointed1 in

  1. watchtower
  2. beliefs

  i was on an official tour last week to another part of my country.

  on my way to the hotel, i noticed sign-board of jw kingdom hall.

  i thought i would attend sunday meeting as i knew no one would recognize me.. seeing “a new-comer” in the audience, public speaker adapted his material making it especially appealing to me.

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  slimboyfat

  That's an interesting rule. Does it apply to theists who are Nobel prize winning physicists too?

  Antony Hewish "The ghostly presence of virtual particles defies rational common sense and is non-intuitive for those unacquainted with physics. Religious belief in God, and Christian belief... may seem strange to common-sense thinking. But when the most elementary physical things behave in this way, we should be prepared to accept that the deepest aspects of our existence go beyond our common-sense understanding."
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  73

  The con is completed - comments from the US branch's LDC chief

  by sir82 in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  recently attended a special assembly day.. guest speaker was thomas chicky, a member of the us branch committee and the head of the us ldc (which has replaced the rbcs).. the last talk of the day is scheduled for an hour.

  it was the usual boring mumbo-jumbo.

  he appeared to have blasted through his hour-long outline in just about 45 minutes, so he "treated" us to informal comments on recent developments.. he commented on the new wt complex in fishkill ny.. then he dropped the bomb (well, to anyone with ears and at least 2 functioning synapses).. the following is not a word for quote, but presents the gist of his comments:.

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  slimboyfat

  It don't think the mystery is so great. Lett explained it in simple terms: "we have more money going out than we have coming in brothers". In that situation you need to sell assets and cut costs to survive financially. It's not a question of "what are they going to do with all the money". The cutbacks and begging for donations are all about keeping afloat.

  In many ways it's been a long time coming. They've been living on borrowed time since they stopped charging for literature in the 1990s. The displacement of print media, the crash of 2008, the abuse claims, declining recruitment, and aging staff have all exacerbated the problem.

  What will they do when they run out of assets to sell? Can they cut costs enough to make the religion sustainable long term?