Yes, zero reasoning is happening, but that doesn’t matter. What matters is outcomes. A computer can beat you at chess, solve protein folding that has eluded the best efforts of scientists for decades, and it can write more persuasive copy than any human can, and all the while zero reasoning is happening, only number crunching. Machines are not becoming conscious they are becoming capable, and their capability is increasing at an exponential rate. If it seems like they have a long way yet to go then remember that an exponential curve is already half way to a destination when only a tiny fraction of the ground has been covered. The story goes that it took scientist years to map just 1% of the human genome and despondent backers thought it would never be competed in their lifetimes. Somebody who knows how exponential progress work responded: “1% alread? Then you’re almost done!” And it was completed shortly after.
GPT2 produced incoherent strings of words
GPT4 is already passing the Turing test of output that humans find difficult to distinguish from a human being
What will GPT5 and 6 and 7 be like?
The world is going to change radically beyond recognition within a very short period of time.
https://youtu.be/eD5GlCIS0sA?si=lchgY4xd7khmZ8P4