slimboyfat

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Posts by slimboyfat

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  20

  The only man in the room - Kennedy 1962

  by slimboyfat in

  1. social
  2. current

  in the current situation, it’s worth listening to this podcast about nuclear near misses.

  the cuban missile crisis was only one example, but is worth considering.

  in 1962 the united states and russia went eyeball to eyeball over russia’s military base in cuba.

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  slimboyfat

  The Soviet leaders had already delegated the use of nuclear weapons to local command in 1962. So in effect they had already chosen the nuclear option. It was pure luck that one officer refused to agree to the use of nuclear torpedoes. .

  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vasily_Arkhipov
  

  So I don’t know where this idea “there would have been no nuclear war” comes from. As a general statement of belief that it’s simply “incredible” somehow, it’s a very dangerous attitude, because extreme vigilance and caution is required if we are to have any hope of avoiding it long term. Complacency is disaster.

  The idea that “Russia know they can’t win” has little to do with it. There are many reasons a human could convince themselves that a nuclear strike isn’t completely insane. It’s the kind of topic that can tie even the most rational of people in a logical mess. Note that even the pacifist Bertrand Russell briefly advocated a first strike against Russia because he worked himself into such a state that he concluded it might be the least worst option. The idea that Putin isn’t capable of making gross miscalculations is contradicted by the invasion of Ukraine itself. Plus if Putin is given no longer way out then, no matter how bad the odds, he may opt for a strike. In fact a good journalist, with god sources, reports soberly that those around Putin think it’s currently the plan. This is an extremely perilous situation we’re in.

  titch thanks for the correction on RFK being the Attorney General.
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  20

  The only man in the room - Kennedy 1962

  by slimboyfat in

  1. social
  2. current

  in the current situation, it’s worth listening to this podcast about nuclear near misses.

  the cuban missile crisis was only one example, but is worth considering.

  in 1962 the united states and russia went eyeball to eyeball over russia’s military base in cuba.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  slimboyfat

  Vlad Vexler says the clans around Putin who are positioning themselves for power are more radical than Putin himself and that in some ways Putin’s threat of using nuclear weapons was intended to appease those who would go further at this moment. That is a terrifying analysis, if true, because not even the deposition of Putin offers any solace. There may truly no longer be any viable way out of this horrendous situation. The best chance we have might still be along the lines suggested by Yanis Varoufakis: immediate withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine in exchange for the guaranteed permanent neutrality of Ukraine and removal of NATO troops from Eastern Europe. This is certainly far from ideal, and far from what the west wants, but western leaders really need to consider carefully that it may be much better than the alternatives, which are too awful to contemplate, but we must contemplate and face with realism and pragmatism.
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  20

  The only man in the room - Kennedy 1962

  by slimboyfat in

  1. social
  2. current

  in the current situation, it’s worth listening to this podcast about nuclear near misses.

  the cuban missile crisis was only one example, but is worth considering.

  in 1962 the united states and russia went eyeball to eyeball over russia’s military base in cuba.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  slimboyfat

  Putin believes in spheres of influence for great powers. He would prefer that Ukraine was part of Russia but a separate Ukraine that was aligned with Russia would have been acceptable, just as he finds the political situation in Belarus acceptable. (However that ship has sailed for Ukraine now, unfortunately) What Putin, and many Russians too, find unacceptable is a Ukraine which is aligned with the west, because he finds the idea of a military base so close to Moscow intolerable. (In this context Vlad explains, with many examples, that Putin is completely obsessed with the speed of nuclear weapons in particular)

  I have no special insight on the feelings of the Russian people. I find the explanation of a Vlad Vexler informative because he grew up in Russia, understands Russian, follows developments in Russia closely, and is a political scientist/philosopher by training. He gives a fuller explanation of the situation in Russia in the video below, including what Russian people think, and the limited ability to curtail Putin. His explanation of the trembling of Russia’s security chief before Putin was particularly incisive—and terrifying for its implications for Putin’s intentions and the inability of those around him to alter his course.

  https://youtu.be/ZwU13-4SakE
  
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  20

  The only man in the room - Kennedy 1962

  by slimboyfat in

  1. social
  2. current

  in the current situation, it’s worth listening to this podcast about nuclear near misses.

  the cuban missile crisis was only one example, but is worth considering.

  in 1962 the united states and russia went eyeball to eyeball over russia’s military base in cuba.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  slimboyfat

  The interview in this video with prize winning journalist Christo Grozev is the most frightening interview I’ve ever seen. Putin is talking privately about using tactical nuclear weapons against a NATO country if the war in Ukraine goes badly. (As I am sure you have noticed, the war is going badly)

  https://youtu.be/Jyni1VYT_hI
  
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  46

  Where will the war in Ukraine lead to?

  by Kosonen in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  there has been comments in the news recently that the war in ukraine could be the beginning to the world war three.. i would not be surprised if it is.

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  the bible says a time will come when the peace will be taken from the earth.. revelation 6:4 another came out, a fiery-colored horse, and it was granted to the one seated on it to take peace away from the earth so that they should slaughter one another, and he was given a great sword.. have you heard what possibly this war in ukraine could lead to?.

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  slimboyfat

  Humans have only had the ability to destroy themselves completely since the early 1950s. Would God allow humans to destroy the species? That is a somewhat new question. Best not to test it.
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  20

  The only man in the room - Kennedy 1962

  by slimboyfat in

  1. social
  2. current

  in the current situation, it’s worth listening to this podcast about nuclear near misses.

  the cuban missile crisis was only one example, but is worth considering.

  in 1962 the united states and russia went eyeball to eyeball over russia’s military base in cuba.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  slimboyfat

  In the current situation, it’s worth listening to this podcast about nuclear near misses. The Cuban missile crisis was only one example, but is worth considering.

  In 1962 the United States and Russia went eyeball to eyeball over Russia’s military base in Cuba. The whole world held its breath. At the last minute, before a scheduled US invasion, an offer arrived from Moscow: remove your base from Turkey and we will remove our troops from Cuba. Kennedy called a meeting of all the senior decision makers. Everyone in the room said it was a terrible deal, there was no way the Unites States should accept it. John Kennedy’s own brother, the Secretary of State, opposed the deal. The invasion of Cuba should go ahead. JFK listened to everyone speak in turn and at the end of the meeting he decided to accept the deal. He was the only man in the room in favour of accepting the deal, but he stuck to his decision and avoided a nuclear war.

  What even the President didn’t realise at the time was that nuclear missiles were already in Cuba and ready to be used. Local Russian commanders had been given authority to use nuclear weapons if they came under attack. If the United States had invaded as planned it would almost certainly have resulted in nuclear war, and during this period scenarios for retaliation on each side involved complete destruction of both countries, and most likely, the rest of the world. If any other person in the room had been President that day in 1962 it would have been game over for humanity.

  Let’s hope we have leaders ready to make the right call today, to accept an unpopular resolution, to be the only man in the room.

  https://youtu.be/Y_rH0L9r7wM
  
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  46

  Where will the war in Ukraine lead to?

  by Kosonen in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  there has been comments in the news recently that the war in ukraine could be the beginning to the world war three.. i would not be surprised if it is.

  .

  the bible says a time will come when the peace will be taken from the earth.. revelation 6:4 another came out, a fiery-colored horse, and it was granted to the one seated on it to take peace away from the earth so that they should slaughter one another, and he was given a great sword.. have you heard what possibly this war in ukraine could lead to?.

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  2. 
  3. 
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  slimboyfat

  You mean Revelation 16 not 6, and yes it is a very concerning situation, because world leaders are not talking in a way that indicates they appreciate the gravity of the situation. Instead of pursuing a resolution and a settlement they are daily increasing the pressure and offering Russia no way out. This is a recipe for complete disaster if it continues. It’s as if they think that making an example of Russia is more important that saving humanity. This is insane, no matter how you look at it, because the dead don’t learn any lessons.
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  27

  "Somebody" needs to do "Something!"

  by Terry in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  it's always unjustifiable for a country to attack another country without having first been attacked itself.. the nuremberg trials at the end of wwii made this clear.. more vividly too: following orders as a patriotic duty is never secondary to the pangs of your personal conscience.. .

  worst of all, hypocrisy destroys credibility when you.

  criticize other countries for doing what you have done.. .

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  slimboyfat

  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_support_for_Iraq_during_the_Iran–Iraq_War
  
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  27

  "Somebody" needs to do "Something!"

  by Terry in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  it's always unjustifiable for a country to attack another country without having first been attacked itself.. the nuremberg trials at the end of wwii made this clear.. more vividly too: following orders as a patriotic duty is never secondary to the pangs of your personal conscience.. .

  worst of all, hypocrisy destroys credibility when you.

  criticize other countries for doing what you have done.. .

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  slimboyfat

  I guess you are referring to the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990. Probably not the Iraqi invasion of Iran in 1980 that was heavily supported by the US.

  There is no equivalence between Ukraine and Iraq in the sense that what the west did to Iraq was much much worse, and Iraq posed no threat to us. That’s not to “defend” Russia, it’s to point out rank hypocrisy.
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  27

  "Somebody" needs to do "Something!"

  by Terry in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  it's always unjustifiable for a country to attack another country without having first been attacked itself.. the nuremberg trials at the end of wwii made this clear.. more vividly too: following orders as a patriotic duty is never secondary to the pangs of your personal conscience.. .

  worst of all, hypocrisy destroys credibility when you.

  criticize other countries for doing what you have done.. .

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  2. 
  3. 
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  slimboyfat

  redvip2000

  The US used the same excuses for invading Iraq in 2003. They claimed Iraq was developing nuclear weapons just as Putin claimed Ukraine was developing nuclear weapons. And the US claimed theirs was a humanitarian mission just as Putin claims it is a humanitarian mission to save Russians in Ukraine. Russia is undoubtedly committing war crimes in Ukraine, but unfortunately the west has no moral authority because they have done worse in Iraq and are supporting worse in Yemen.

  A big difference between the Iraq war and the current war in Ukraine is the scale and brutality. Because Russia has a long way to go before reaching the 1 million Iraqis killed in the 2003 war of aggression. Nothing in Ukraine has yet reached the wanton destruction of Fallujah or the systematic brutality of Abu Ghraib. I hope the war in Ukraine never reaches the same levels of depravity and suffering as the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fallujah_during_the_Iraq_War#U.S._operations_in_Fallujah

  I hope all those guilty of war crimes are brought to justice. However the US has a specific law to prevent any US leader ever facing charges of war crimes at the international court. Clearly they believe international law should not apply to them.

  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Service-Members'_Protection_Act