Economist article on JWs in Mexico - 5 years old now , but still relevant:It might be the law of diminishing returns... but they managed to get crazy numbers in the 80's... even with hundreds of thousands of witnesses there were still thousands coming in... I really think that there are other factors that have slowed down the work. The Economist article is cute... talks about two states and thinks that the situation applies to the rest of Mexico... hahaha
http://www.economist.com/node/21551091
Maybe any relative decline is just the law of diminishing returns. Only a small percentage of people will ever be attracted into a religion like JWs ( which , let's face it , if you weren't brought up into it & brainwashed as a child , very few people would be interested ). As the Economist article indicates , JWs are competing with Pentecostal groups , Mormons etc for the basic recruits ( mainly ex-Catholics). Many of these competing religions are more attractive in terms of lifestyle etc.
ILoveTTATT2
JoinedPosts by ILoveTTATT2
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10 Graphs that show that the Watchtower is in trouble in Mexico
by ILoveTTATT2 inmexico is by far the country where the witnesses have had the most success in the entire world.
almost any statistic except the total amount of witnesses shows that mexico is where the witnesses have had the wildest success in the world.proportional to population, the witnesses in mexico are double, or nearly triple, what they are in the us or brazil.but there is "trouble in paradise".
if mexico falls, pretty much the whole watchtower falls.which is why it is so important to have jwfacts translated to spanish.i made an analysis and things are looking bad in mexico... if trends continue, mexico will become just like the 1st-world countries.here is the first graph:maximum publisher % increase:.
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ILoveTTATT2
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10 Graphs that show that the Watchtower is in trouble in Mexico
by ILoveTTATT2 inmexico is by far the country where the witnesses have had the most success in the entire world.
almost any statistic except the total amount of witnesses shows that mexico is where the witnesses have had the wildest success in the world.proportional to population, the witnesses in mexico are double, or nearly triple, what they are in the us or brazil.but there is "trouble in paradise".
if mexico falls, pretty much the whole watchtower falls.which is why it is so important to have jwfacts translated to spanish.i made an analysis and things are looking bad in mexico... if trends continue, mexico will become just like the 1st-world countries.here is the first graph:maximum publisher % increase:.
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ILoveTTATT2
Maybe in membership numbers, that is sort of true. However, Watchtower is essentially a business, and that means wealthy USA with its 1.2 million is by far the most important "Land". That being said, the borg is proportionaly more of a blight on the people of Mexico than virtually any country in the world.
Your comment is correct. In membership numbers, the numbers are pretty much driven, worldwide, by what happens in Mexico. Answer to 1st question: Yes, Mexico is becoming more secular, AND it's also becoming less Catholic. People are becoming agnostic/atheist or they're going to non-catholic groups. Answer to 2nd question: I don't know that yet, but I have statistical data from 2000 and 2010 from the Mexican Government. I will check it out.
First question: I was wondering whether Mexico becoming any less overwhelmingly Catholic, which may partially explain the flattening growth. My reason for asking is that I have noticed that the borg's success in any particular country seems to be directly proportional to how "Christian" a country is. Countries where there is a high proportion of the polulation professing Christianity seem to have the most JWs. Countries where the proportion of Christians are dropping seem to have had lower JW growth.
Second question: Does anyone know if JWs in Mexico are getting older on average (as statistical data shows they are in Aust and USA)? -
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10 Graphs that show that the Watchtower is in trouble in Mexico
by ILoveTTATT2 inmexico is by far the country where the witnesses have had the most success in the entire world.
almost any statistic except the total amount of witnesses shows that mexico is where the witnesses have had the wildest success in the world.proportional to population, the witnesses in mexico are double, or nearly triple, what they are in the us or brazil.but there is "trouble in paradise".
if mexico falls, pretty much the whole watchtower falls.which is why it is so important to have jwfacts translated to spanish.i made an analysis and things are looking bad in mexico... if trends continue, mexico will become just like the 1st-world countries.here is the first graph:maximum publisher % increase:.
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ILoveTTATT2
Then a lot of brothers from Spanish congs moved to English congs, the problem was that those who moved were not the best brothers of Spanish congs: undesirable ones, rich, faders, naughty ones, double life, etc. English congs were labeled as debauchees congs by Spanish congs. Also, a lot of problems raised between elders of Spanish congs and English congs, because the way of doing and following the Org procedures (English brothers are more attached to the procedures and more liberal than Spanish ones).
Hammer Head: Meet nail. So true. Everything in this paragraph is so true.
If you were rich, wanted to party, etc... you went to the English. There were lots of paradigms in the English, however. There were the uber dubs AND the double lifers at the same time, the super liberal elders AND the ones that followed the book...A lot of my waking up happened because of a super liberal elder...
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10 Graphs that show that the Watchtower is in trouble in Mexico
by ILoveTTATT2 inmexico is by far the country where the witnesses have had the most success in the entire world.
almost any statistic except the total amount of witnesses shows that mexico is where the witnesses have had the wildest success in the world.proportional to population, the witnesses in mexico are double, or nearly triple, what they are in the us or brazil.but there is "trouble in paradise".
if mexico falls, pretty much the whole watchtower falls.which is why it is so important to have jwfacts translated to spanish.i made an analysis and things are looking bad in mexico... if trends continue, mexico will become just like the 1st-world countries.here is the first graph:maximum publisher % increase:.
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ILoveTTATT2
However this graph shows how wildly successful the Watchtower has been in Mexico:
They've grown 100x in 60 years, and 1000x in 70 years: -
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10 Graphs that show that the Watchtower is in trouble in Mexico
by ILoveTTATT2 inmexico is by far the country where the witnesses have had the most success in the entire world.
almost any statistic except the total amount of witnesses shows that mexico is where the witnesses have had the wildest success in the world.proportional to population, the witnesses in mexico are double, or nearly triple, what they are in the us or brazil.but there is "trouble in paradise".
if mexico falls, pretty much the whole watchtower falls.which is why it is so important to have jwfacts translated to spanish.i made an analysis and things are looking bad in mexico... if trends continue, mexico will become just like the 1st-world countries.here is the first graph:maximum publisher % increase:.
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ILoveTTATT2
LOL Heather... I am the one doing the translation.
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10 Graphs that show that the Watchtower is in trouble in Mexico
by ILoveTTATT2 inmexico is by far the country where the witnesses have had the most success in the entire world.
almost any statistic except the total amount of witnesses shows that mexico is where the witnesses have had the wildest success in the world.proportional to population, the witnesses in mexico are double, or nearly triple, what they are in the us or brazil.but there is "trouble in paradise".
if mexico falls, pretty much the whole watchtower falls.which is why it is so important to have jwfacts translated to spanish.i made an analysis and things are looking bad in mexico... if trends continue, mexico will become just like the 1st-world countries.here is the first graph:maximum publisher % increase:.
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ILoveTTATT2
Mexico is the biggest growth driver for the Watchtower. A loss in Mexico could easily cancel out the gains in most other countries. For example, in just two years they have 80,000 less Bible Studies... that loss is very hard to recover from even counting many other countries...In what sense does "Mexico falling" cause the "whole Watchtower to fall"?
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10 Graphs that show that the Watchtower is in trouble in Mexico
by ILoveTTATT2 inmexico is by far the country where the witnesses have had the most success in the entire world.
almost any statistic except the total amount of witnesses shows that mexico is where the witnesses have had the wildest success in the world.proportional to population, the witnesses in mexico are double, or nearly triple, what they are in the us or brazil.but there is "trouble in paradise".
if mexico falls, pretty much the whole watchtower falls.which is why it is so important to have jwfacts translated to spanish.i made an analysis and things are looking bad in mexico... if trends continue, mexico will become just like the 1st-world countries.here is the first graph:maximum publisher % increase:.
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ILoveTTATT2
I can imagine the retired English-only JW's are such a minority. Most probably could go to Spanish language congregations. They might even like going to Spanish if they don't speak the language, just sitting there like bumps on a log as usual, but with a language-barrier excuse.
Several statements there that I want to correct: 1) They asked all non-native English speakers to leave, but the native English speakers could stay... so that would mean that most English congregations would either close completely or be left entirely with retired American/Canadian/Australian JW's. 2) The retired JW's in Mexico have a lot of money. They contributed way more than most Spanish only congregations. Definitely were living the life: Beach front homes, retired, rock star treatment in the congregations, lots of studies and preaching.... and then to Starbucks... and then back home in the beach... barbecue... beer... repeat.
If they close English-only, it's a money thing. The retired JW's probably give minimal amounts to keep the congregation expenses at bay, but not much toward the worldwide work. -
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10 Graphs that show that the Watchtower is in trouble in Mexico
by ILoveTTATT2 inmexico is by far the country where the witnesses have had the most success in the entire world.
almost any statistic except the total amount of witnesses shows that mexico is where the witnesses have had the wildest success in the world.proportional to population, the witnesses in mexico are double, or nearly triple, what they are in the us or brazil.but there is "trouble in paradise".
if mexico falls, pretty much the whole watchtower falls.which is why it is so important to have jwfacts translated to spanish.i made an analysis and things are looking bad in mexico... if trends continue, mexico will become just like the 1st-world countries.here is the first graph:maximum publisher % increase:.
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ILoveTTATT2
Wonder why they told English speaking non natives to leave?
I don't know, but I am guessing power struggles in Bethel in Mexico. Someone big there probably hated the English speaking witnesses, considered them snobs, considered them as "stealing" the publishers from the Spanish speaking side. -
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10 Graphs that show that the Watchtower is in trouble in Mexico
by ILoveTTATT2 inmexico is by far the country where the witnesses have had the most success in the entire world.
almost any statistic except the total amount of witnesses shows that mexico is where the witnesses have had the wildest success in the world.proportional to population, the witnesses in mexico are double, or nearly triple, what they are in the us or brazil.but there is "trouble in paradise".
if mexico falls, pretty much the whole watchtower falls.which is why it is so important to have jwfacts translated to spanish.i made an analysis and things are looking bad in mexico... if trends continue, mexico will become just like the 1st-world countries.here is the first graph:maximum publisher % increase:.
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ILoveTTATT2
I will venture that two factors related to the decline of the WT in that country are the migration to USA (which counts for the little bit of increase in the USA) and the control of the cartels in certain regions of the country where it has become really dangerous to operate witness style.
Sorry Hecce but there is no data to support that statement... Witnesses have grown in every state, even in states with lots of cartel violence. Plus, if that were the case, we would see a decrease starting in 2006... all of the trends show that growth in the witnesses in Mexico has to do with things in the witness world... except for the internet which is a major non-witness world variable that really affects them. -
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10 Graphs that show that the Watchtower is in trouble in Mexico
by ILoveTTATT2 inmexico is by far the country where the witnesses have had the most success in the entire world.
almost any statistic except the total amount of witnesses shows that mexico is where the witnesses have had the wildest success in the world.proportional to population, the witnesses in mexico are double, or nearly triple, what they are in the us or brazil.but there is "trouble in paradise".
if mexico falls, pretty much the whole watchtower falls.which is why it is so important to have jwfacts translated to spanish.i made an analysis and things are looking bad in mexico... if trends continue, mexico will become just like the 1st-world countries.here is the first graph:maximum publisher % increase:.
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ILoveTTATT2
Mexico is by far the country where the witnesses have had the most success in the entire world. Almost any statistic except the total amount of witnesses shows that Mexico is where the witnesses have had the wildest success in the world.
Proportional to population, the witnesses in Mexico are double, or nearly triple, what they are in the US or Brazil.
But there is "trouble in paradise". If Mexico falls, pretty much the whole Watchtower falls.
Which is why it is so important to have jwfacts translated to Spanish.
I made an analysis and things are looking bad in Mexico... if trends continue, Mexico will become just like the 1st-world countries.
Here is the first graph:
Maximum Publisher % increase:Notice that this statistic has an obvious downward trend since the peak in 1983. It had a major dip after 1975... but it's interesting to note that 2015's number was worse off than even post-1975.
Second statistic:
Average Publisher % Growth:In this one they're not yet as bad as post 1975, but there is a definite downward trend... the numbers have been getting smaller for three years in a row: 2014, 2015, 2016. Exclude 2013 and the numbers have gotten smaller since 2009.
The third statistic is baptisms. This one is harder to interpret, but the trend is clearly downwards... in 2016, they went under 20,000 baptisms... the first time since 1989! They have been falling very quickly... 2015 and 2016 have seen steep declines.Fourth statistic:
Hours per baptism.
This one is absolutely brutal. It is even worse than the world average, worse than the US numbers!
It is 12 times harder to get one baptism now than it was when it was easiest in 1975. In 1975, a mere 970 hours and they got one more... now... it's nearly 12,000 hours. This number is triple what it was in the year 2000. This shows that people are investigating on the internet before they become witnesses... and they just don't.Fifth Statistic: Bible Studies
They've had a clear decline in the past couple of years... It seems like this number is severely affected by dates... there are declines post 1975, post the generation change, and post 2014.6th Statistic: Conversion Rate. This is the percentage of Bible Studies in a given year that get baptized.
Another brutal statistic, with record low in 2016 and record high previous to 1975. Again, note that this number is worse than post-1975...7th: I read in another post here that when we start to see congregations shutting down, that's when the Watchtower is in trouble. Well... They had the largest dip ever in 2014... But I think it was because they were stupid and said they were going to shut down a lot of the English congregations in Mexico.... very stupid thing to do. The English speaking JW's in Mexico were mostly retired folks... they were driving a lot of the growth!
8th: Memorial attendance:
They rarely have dips... but they've had the largest dip ever in 2015... The problem is more obvious in the next graph.
9th: Memorial attendance % growth:Clearly, they're on a downward trend... possibly slipping into negative territory being common.
10th: Hours preached. Again, dates make an impact on this statistic....So in conclusion, things are looking bad for Mexico... the crown jewel of the Watchtower.
I believe there are four elements that have affected the statistics severely since 2013:
1) The proliferation on Facebook of exJW pages in Spanish since 2013, and the translation of jwfacts into Spanish starting in 2013.
2) The decline of the English congregations in Mexico. They sent out a letter asking all non-native English speakers to leave the English congregations, and that now the preaching in English was only to be done to native English speakers...
3) The psychological importance of 2014... 100 years after 1914.
4) The cart witnessing is impressively inefficient. Witnesses are barely preaching door to door now, which works much better than the cart witnessing. If they get used to it... there might not be a going back to door to door.
What do you think?