A New Scientific Discovery About J.W.'s

by Mindchild 33 Replies latest jw friends

• 

  AlanF

  What an amazing set of scientific findings you've presented, mindchild! You and your colleagues may well be awarded a Nobel Prize!

  For larc, spectral analysis is a technique often used to analyze data in order to determine whether periodicities exist. It can determine a lot more besides, but that's the basic idea.

  To give a simple illustration, suppose you wanted to analyze tree ring growth data for a few hundred years to see if you could find any periodicities in growth, which would in turn imply periodicities in climate. You measure the width of growth rings on thousands of trees going back as far as you like, average the results and then plot the average width versus time on an x-y graph. You'll see a squiggly line with humps and dips, but most likely won't see much more than a faint trace of periodicity. Spectral analysis lets you extract the individual periodicities and gives you information about the magnitude of each periodicity in your data. In this case, most likely the strongest periodicity would be at some multiple of the period of the sunspot cycle, i.e., 11 years. Scientists have done this and actually found the strongest period at 22 years.

  The term "spectral analysis" comes from the "spectrum" of light, i.e., white light is made up of many frequencies all munged together into the normal ROYGBIV spectrum. When a prism splits light into its various frequencies (colors), it's doing a kind of spectral analysis. More sophisticated equipment can measure the intensity of each color. Light from the sun and stars contains not only a huge number of low-intensity frequencies that make up almost a continuum, but many particularly intense frequencies, or nulls at a frequency, that represent emission or absorption of light at those frequencies by a particular molecule. If you've ever viewed pictures of spectra from the sun or stars, you'll have seen those emission or absorption lines.

  Mathematically, any set of data can be analyzed to see the "frequencies" (or equivalently, the periods) inherent in the data. This is done via the technique called "Fourier analysis", which breaks data down into a set of sine waves of various magnitudes, frequencies and phases. In the case of measured data, computer programs exist to do this. The set of extracted sine waves is called the spectrum of the data. If you simply add up all of the extracted sine waves, you get back the shape of the original data curve.

  "Least squares" is another set of mathematical techniques that allows one to find the best fit to a predetermined curve of a set of "noisy" data. Once could use this, for example, to find the best fit sine wave to a set of data that look something like a noisy sine wave. I'm not familiar with details of the "least squares spectrum" technique described by our esteemed mindchild, but I imagine it would combine these two techniques to yield a "most probable" spectrum.

  Hope this helps.

  AlanF
• 

  mustang

  Interesting. I would suppose that the JW’s were picked because you had ‘been there’. But, on second thought, they happen to be one religion that has an obsession with numeric icons???. That does make it convenient, doesn’t it? A good and practical choice.

  But I’m with Larc on this; that is about other influences. He brought up 1975:

  “Are there any confounding variables? One I can think of, is the excitement over 1975 which caused a great increase in activity, followed by a drop-off in 1976.”

  For instance, you mentioned Japan as being ‘on the geomagnetic equator’ & therefore being of a high incidence, relative to the USA. Incidentally the USA, being the JW origin, has traditionally held high numbers, probably due to the greater central activity of the headquarters. However, currently, the Japanese seem to be on the decline. Please check w/ the local Japanese correspondent, Duggan/JWD, I believe. He has posted on this in some detail, though not recently.

  I would call this a ‘confounding variable’. Also, it looks like there is some other ‘prophecy integrity’ problems and potential scandalous matters coming to the fore this year and for the past several years. These would seem to be a ‘headwind’ to your current ‘tailwind’ effect. This might have the effect of indicating a ‘plateau’ now and a steeper fall later, relative to the trends you had mentioned previously.

  It has been noted that the WTS is a well-oiled Business engine, their Engineering efficiency is adequate but not the best and that they are highly proficient with the Legal Beagles.

  Business & Engineering wise, they could be hurt by the changing scenery with the Internet. And book publishing could take a backseat to such forms of modern endeavor as WTS would not endorse or utilize.

  While motivational psychology is probably more important to the JW’s than the Bible actually is, it must be remembered that they ultimately are up against their ability to ‘throw the dice’ and call the shots on the ‘god business’. A few bad calls here will wipe out all the positive pulls that motivational psychology can ever add to their progress. Of course, their Legal squad will seek to enhance those deficiencies.

  A ‘mainstreaming’ effort in the endgame might save the day for them. In that event, their uniqueness would go away and the numbers would stabilize or even come back up.

  I see that Alan is all set to do a Fourier analysis for you, Larc. Since Alan has probably built a Spectrum Analyzer, you are in good hands, LOL.

  Mustang

  PS. Mindchild, I will email you w/ something of a similar nature, but totally 'off topic' to this board.

  PS#2.
  DISCLAIMER #2:

  Anything that I write on this posting (and prior posting's on this site and the previous H2O’s) is (or was) intended as an expression of both personal Religious Freedom and Freedom of Speech, as guaranteed in the 1st Amendment to the Constitution of the United States, as the "free exercise", as well as "freedom of speech" clauses.
• 

  Abaddon

  Watch ya Skipper!

  How's it hanging?

  I've read the extract you've sent me a while back.

  Have they found corresponding correlations in other whacko's, er, I mean religions yet?

  All the best

  G
• 

  Moxy

  this is a fascinating follow-up to the 'god spot' studies mentioned. this is not as loony as it probably sounds at first either. one should not get the impression that you could look at publisher and hour numbers and visibly see a rise and fall every 21 years. this is a subtle influence seen using the mathematical analysis described above by alanf. extrapolating from the years mentioned, i gather that these were periods of hi or lo magnetic influence on religious activities:

  2002-2005 hi
  1991-1994 lo
  1981-1984 hi
  1970-1973 lo
  1960-1963 hi
  1949-1951 lo
  1939-1941 hi
  1928-1930 lo
  1918-1920 hi (JW rebirth)
  1907-1909 lo
  1897-1899 hi
  1886-1888 lo
  1876-1878 hi (WT founded)

  some interesting comparisons can be made if i indeed have gotten this right. the fact that the early 70's being a low period is supported by unaltered statistics of high JW growth during this time makes the conclusions compelling, altho i would really like to see this paper myself.

  thanks for the post

  mox
• 

  larc

  Alan,

  Thank you for your explaination. I figured it was something like that.

  MindChild,

  Since this is a complex subject, is there something in print that we can read? If this was a presented paper, I think you should get it accepted in a peer reviewed journal before going to the popular press. It would give you more credibility and it would insure that your final conclusions were free of error.

  Methodological notes: I seems to me tha when you go from a least squares fit to spectral analysis, you are increasing the possibility that your increase in correlation is to chance flucuations as opposed to real differences, especially with a data set of only 50 cases.

  As far as confounding variables, have you thought of using multiple correlation to determine if these other variables increase the explained variance? Also, why don't you go back and collect data from the 1940's to increase your sample size.

  I have to come back to one question that you did not answer. What is the actual size of the correlation?
• 

  Mindchild

  Hello Again Lark,

  A few brief replies to your questions. First, as to your questions about spectral analysis, Alan F. below did a excellent job in explaining the basics so I won’t expand on this. Regarding geomagnetic vs. electromagnetic effects, we are essentially talking about the same thing. In the electromagnetic spectrum, there are extremely long radio waves which are known as ULFR (ultra low frequency radiation) that instead of being measured in cycles per second as we do with most electromagnetic waves, are measured in seconds or even minutes per cycle. These very long radio waves are generally known as geomagnetic pulsations as they are created by the very large magnetosphere of our planet. A similar type of radiation is the ultra low frequency radio waves used in communicating with submarines under the surface of the sea.

  When I mentioned a 300% difference, I was talking about monthly publisher averages for different countries. Typically northern latitude countries see publisher hours somewhere around 10 hours a month, whereas some countries around the geomagnetic equator see over 30 hours a month of preaching activity.

  The proximity of the geomagnetic equator and the geographical equator are somewhat similar and in the same general region but it does not follow lines of latitude and is only grossly approximate. Furthermore, the geomagnetic lines of force vary with time over decades along with geomagnetic field strength (generally decreasing in intensity globally).

  Yes, there has been some experimental work done already in scientific labs around the world. I personally have built and done some experimental work myself with a device that artificially produces such geomagnetic pulsations and the results were somewhat disturbing, because of the very strong effect it had on me. It disrupted my sleep/wake cycle for weeks, and gave me an effect very similar to that of a mild amphetamine overdose. More controlled and regulated experiments have been conducted and some amazing results are pouring in. Low frequency EM pulsing of the brain is now being used in helping people overcome depression without drugs. Some investigators have produced visual hallucinations of a religious nature using time varying magnetic fields. Some of the normal and healthy test subjects report seeing Jesus or angels and talking to God. There is also information coming in showing that some frequencies of ULFR are having strong negative effects in biological systems, causing or amplifying disease. In short, there is a wealth of experimental and analytical work being done with both human and animal studies in experimental and epidemiological studies. Only time will tell if these prove to have value.

  Skipper

  P.S. The visual imagery and imagination found in Biblical writings may well have been due in part to neural stimulation of human brains by geomagnetic influences. There is growing archeological evidence that ancient cultures roughly followed the sunspot cycle in periods of creativity. Julian Janes, in his seminal book, “The Origin of Consciousness and the Breakdown of the Bicameral Mind” suggests a plausible evolutionary scenario by which religious visions became incorporated into Biblical script. I find this much more interesting than the Watch Tower explanation which is full of magical thinking and gross fantasy in terms of providing explanations for past events.
• 

  Deacon

  . http://www.2012.com.au/SchumannResonance.html
• 

  noidea

  After reading this post I have made a scientific discovery of my own. I am way too blonde.
  I was told that if I read my watchtower & awake magazines that I would understand this stuff. OK, so I didn't read them.
  I'll just pretend I understood it.
  Great Info.
• 

  Mindchild

  Hi Mustang,

  Like I mentioned in my reply, the 1975 disconfirmation did appear to have a role but it was not singular in its effects. I made a simple graph to show the relationship between two environmental variables and the average hours spent worldwide by Jehovah’s Witnesses during the period. Regrettably, I can’t figure out how to include graphics in these postings so here is a brief table of information you can use to make a simple graph for yourself using something like Excel, or another word processor.

  The variables are the SSN (sunspot number), Ap (planetary magnetic indicator) and the average hours spent per month for each year from the worldwide totals. Outside the year, all figures are the calculated Z-scores for each variable, which allows you to mathematically place each item on the same scale.

  Year SSN Ap Hrs

  1950 1.14 0.05 0.70
  1951 0.19 0.73 0.45
  1952 -0.08 1.74 0.19
  1953 -0.79 1.50 0.18
  1954 -1.12 0.17 -0.10
  1955 -1.29 -0.96 -0.06
  1956 -0.67 -0.94 -0.28
  1957 1.26 0.73 -0.32
  1958 2.15 1.26 -0.20
  1959 2.06 1.02 -0.19
  1960 1.58 1.52 -0.12
  1961 0.71 2.05 -0.17
  1962 -0.37 -0.15 -0.47
  1963 -0.67 -0.66 -0.60
  1964 -0.85 -0.60 -0.30
  1965 -1.18 -1.24 -0.13
  1966 -1.09 -1.75 -0.34
  1967 -0.50 -1.18 -0.14
  1968 0.37 -0.78 0.16
  1969 0.59 -0.38 0.16
  1970 0.59 -0.88 -1.38
  1971 0.57 -0.78 -1.24
  1972 -0.13 -0.92 -1.17
  1973 -0.09 -0.60 -1.39
  1974 -0.66 0.47 -1.35
  1975 -0.73 1.10 -1.36
  1976 -1.09 -0.25 -1.37
  1977 -1.14 -0.50 -1.56
  1978 -0.86 -0.76 -1.50
  1979 0.35 0.45 -1.25
  1980 1.51 -0.09 -0.88
  1981 1.50 -0.98 -1.45
  1982 1.24 0.29 -0.34
  1983 0.79 1.82 -0.14
  1984 -0.13 0.84 0.04
  1985 -0.52 0.92 0.14
  1986 -1.04 -0.31 0.64
  1987 -1.12 -0.60 0.80
  1988 -0.83 -0.98 0.82
  1989 0.48 -0.60 1.18
  1990 1.56 1.04 1.40
  1991 1.27 0.33 1.79
  1992 1.34 2.01 2.10
  1993 0.38 0.35 1.90
  1994 -0.36 -0.01 1.64
  1995 -0.82 0.75 1.50
  1996 -1.05 -0.56 0.98
  1997 -1.21 -1.38 1.30
  1998 -0.97 -1.61 1.10
  1999 -0.23 -0.70 0.60

  When you look at the real data from the published reports, you find something rather striking and unexpected by most Jehovah’s Witnesses, the average hours started dropping prior to 1975! Note what happened in 1970 and afterwards. There was a somewhat larger drop off in 1977, which was likely due to discouragement from prophetic disconfirmation but it is actually part of a larger cyclic trend.

  As for your speculations about the sociologic dynamics of the Jehovah’s Witnesses, well there are potentially many factors that may change the game as it is played now and the successes the religious group has enjoyed. Psychologically totalizing religious bodies like Jehovah’s Witnesses and Scientologists are not easily influenced by logical arguments or competing memes. What is much more important is both the tried and true indoctrination and protective mechanisms and the leadership of the group. There are possibly several factors that will bring challenges to this religious body in the near future, including the scandals you mentioned, but I feel those are probably not much more than a drop in the collective bucket as far as influencing effectiveness of this group. Perhaps more serious threats will result from the emerging change in society as a whole and the paradigmatic shifts that accompany it. Regrettably, cultures seem to love and embrace illusion in comparison to unpredictability or uncertainty. People are uncomfortable with not having all the answers or don’t have the skills needed to think effectively for themselves. Considering this, it will be a good guess that this group will continue unless they do something remarkably stupid.

  Skipper
• 

  Mindchild

  Hi Abaddon,

  Glad to hear from you! Yes, one member of our team found similar membership cycles for about a half dozen different religious groups. However, this remains to be seen how effectively this models "motivational" behavior as these membership records are rather "loose" in application (namely you can attend a church once in a year and be labeled a member.) Thus, a little messy for publishing but we remain hopeful that other soical indicators will show more promsing results.

  Anyway, life is good dude. I hope the same holds true for you.

  Skipper