When will JWs decrease?

by Nosferatu 17 Replies latest jw friends

  • Nosferatu

    First of all, I found this webpage, which is full of charts on JW statistics very interesting:


    Let's face the facts, JWs are still overall increasing. They aren't increasing as quickly as they have in the past, but they're still increasing (barely).

    When do you think the next decrease of the total JW population will be?

  • DevonMcBride

    For all we know, they could be decreasing. The stats on the link you provided are from the Watchtower's publications, which are suspect to me.


  • jaredg

    when the rest of the world becomes educated

  • Elsewhere

    They are already stretching their statistics to the breaking point to make it look like they still have growth. I'm sure that in the next ten years their little bag of number tricks will run out.

    Hmmm.... I almost hit the Submit Post button when something occurred to me. Most of the growth is happening in 3rd World countries. There was a similar growth sprit in Japan. How long did it take for Japan to wake up and start decreasing?

  • Nosferatu

    The stats on the link you provided are from the Watchtower's publications, which are suspect to me.

    Good point. They can only re-word things so much. "x number baptized every week" vs "x number baptized every day"

  • dustyb

    and WT statistics don't count ppl that fade, get disfellowshiped or disassociate themselves.... all-in-all they break pretty much even. if you compare the growth of the JW's compared to the growth of the world, they're shrinking because i see more and more old people kick the bucket. it just takes a bit of time for them to fade out =/

  • larc

    I have reviewed these stats before, and my conclusion is that they are only growing in underdeveloped countries. Let's take the numbers a little farther. When Rutherford predicted the end of the world in 1925, it took a full ten years to get their numbers back, to where they were in 1925. Their growth rate hit their peak in the 1940's. They were proud to say that they were the fastest growing religion. Since then, it has been a downward slope. The year, 1975, was a brief interuption in the trend, but it did not really change anything.

  • RunningMan

    In Canada, they have plateau'd for about a decade. Baptisms are half of what they formerly were, and most of the current baptisms are dub kids - no new converts. So, when you consider the population increase, they are losing ground. In areas with low population growth (like Saskatchewan), we see our DC attendance drop by a couple hundred every year, and at least a couple rural congregations are disolved every year.

    I predict that in developed countries, they will stagnate for a while. The current lack of converts, coupled with an aging population, will shift their demographic to become much older. This will make it even tougher to convert new ones, since the group will appear less and less vibrant, and most people change their religion when they are young. Eventually, the mortality rate will increase, and their numbers will decrease.

    Overall, the waters under the old whore are drying up, but its a slow process. Don't worry about it. Being right is never settled by a show of hands, anyway.

  • Insomniac

    They'll decrease once we all quit breeding with them.

  • Brummie
    when the rest of the world becomes educated

    and there you have it! In an nutshell, education is the key.

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