by metatron 14 Replies latest jw friends
::most of the people in the congregation didn't know how to even read or write beyond a 3rd grade level.....I guess this explains the growth!
And the new TM School that will teach you how to teach <cough> without relying on worldly stuff about speaking and teaching ...
M
If you look at the long term changes in the number of witnesses there are some interesting findings. After the false prophecy of 1925, it took them a full ten years to recover to the same number they had in 1925. By comparison the failed prophecy of 1975 did disrupt growth but not as severly as the 1925 fiasco.
Although Russell and Rutherford used the printed media to get their word out, it was not until after Rutherford's death that steady growth occurred. I think this was due to Knorr's bringing sales technique and training methods to the rank and file. Back in the late 1940's the JWs were proud to say that they were the world's fastest growing religion. However, since their peak growth rate back in the late 1940's of about 15% per year there has been a steady downward trend. Near the end of this period, from 1987 to 1997, there has been an average growth rate of only two and a half percent in the U.S. In the last three years, there has been zero growth in the U.S. in the average number of publishers.
When looking at the pattern over a 75 year time frame, I have to conclude that there is nothing the Organization can do to change this long term pattern.
:: When looking at the pattern over a 75 year time frame, I have to conclude that there is nothing the Organization can do to change this long term pattern.
This is the conclusion I have come to as well, over a number of years, larc.
Reform is impossible. In the meantime I will do everything in my power to correct the pedophile mess and axe the blood policy; I'd like to see an end to shunning, and there are senior men inside the Bible House who want to see this happen. I'm not optimistic about an end to this destructive evil anytime soon, if at all.
As to statistics: In a modest but dazzling display of some basic differential calculus, utilizing the second derivative of the function, AlanF a few years back analyzed the rate of growth of the rate of growth. The crunch occurs around 2000-2002. (He did this about five years ago; would love to see him take a second look at his data.) So here we are. A mighty bleak picture with an inevitable fate.
Further changes in doctrine would disillusion yet many more; they know that, another reason for the hardliners to cling. Further flock-flogging will just discourage those who keep looking for a more Christian organization.
Maximus
Maximus,
Another variable to look at is the percent change in the number getting baptised. For many countries, there has been a downward trend for ten years. In the U.S., for example, there has been a 33% decline in just the last four years. In Economics, this would be known as a leading indicator of future membership decline. If AlanF doesn't know the math for using leading indicators in making projections, he might be able to find an Economist or a software package that can make these projections. At any rate, just eye balling the data indicates that there can not be a turn around in numbers in the next three to five years, and further decline appears inevitable.
Here is how the Tower responds. The numbers go up - a sign of God's blessing. The numbers go down - sign of the times - the love of the greater number is cooling off. In other words, no matter what happens it is a sign that they are right.
G'day all,
A most interesting topic we have here.
Further changes in doctrine would disillusion yet many more; they know that, another reason for the hardliners to cling. Further flock-flogging will just discourage those who keep looking for a more Christian organization.I agree with this comment from Maximus. IMO I see a parallel of this scripture passage happening:
At this he said to them: “Let there be yet three days. Then return to me.” So the people went away. And King Re·ho·bo'am began to take counsel with the older men that were continually attending upon Sol'o·mon his father while he continued alive, saying: “How are YOU advising to reply to this people?” Accordingly they spoke to him, saying: “If you would prove yourself good to this people and actually be pleasing to them and indeed speak good words to them, they also will certainly become your servants always.”
However, he left the counsel of the older men with which they had advised him, and he began to take counsel with the young men that had grown up with him, who were the ones attending upon him. And he went on to say to them: “What is it that YOU are offering in counsel that we may reply to this people who have spoken to me, saying, ‘Make the yoke that your father put upon us lighter’?” In turn the young men that had grown up with him spoke with him, saying: “This is what you should say to the people who have spoken to you, saying, ‘Your father, for his part, made our yoke heavy, but, as for you, make it lighter upon us’; this is what you should say to them, ‘My own little finger will certainly be thicker than my father’s hips. And now my father, for his part, loaded upon YOU a heavy yoke, but I, for my part, shall add to YOUR yoke. My father, for his part, chastised YOU with whips, but I, for my part, with scourges.’”
And Jer·o·bo'am and all the people proceeded to come to Re·ho·bo'am on the third day, just as the king had spoken, saying: “Return to me on the third day.” And the king began to answer them harshly. Thus King Re·ho·bo'am left the counsel of the older men, and he went on to speak to them according to the counsel of the young men, saying: “I shall make YOUR yoke heavier, and I, for my part, shall add to it. My father, for his part, chastised YOU with whips, but I, for my part, with scourges.” And the king did not listen to the people; for it proved to be a turn of affairs from the [true] God in order that Jehovah might carry out his word that he had spoken by means of A·hi'jah the Shi'lo·nite to Jer·o·bo'am the son of Ne'bat.
(2 Chronicles 10:1-15)God's Word gives us examples so that we may learn from them. GB take note!
Cheers,
Ozzie
"Truth persuades by teaching, but does not teach by persuading."
TERTULLIAN, Adversus Valentinianos
