by onacruse 20 Replies latest watchtower beliefs
onacruse,
: The interpolative data....
...is porneia and strictly forbidden to even think about. Either that, or it's a person who acts as a translator: "Let me see if I can interpolate this Jess and see wut we git here." You can't trust them people. They're likely demonized. Besides that, the mere pronunciation of the word aloud arouses people. It arouses me and I'm fearless! Therefore, I must be demonized. Wait! I'm ALREADY demonized!
Nevermind.
Farkel
G'day Craig,
A most interesting and, I daresay, an absorbing topic, this!
I was wondering about this:
"Net DFd" is based on the "1% per year" rule of thumb (several WTS references available).
Is it really just 1%? I take it that by this (Net DF) you mean total DF less those reinstated??
Like Amazing says, the 2M loss is my impression too.
What must alarm the borgmeisters is that included in that figure are many 'old-timers', ones with experience, elders and the like. It's not just the inexperienced or the "weak publishers".
Cheers, Ozzie
What bothers me most is how they're netting the df'd ones now, that seems cruel and barbaric. What the hell are they doing to the da'd ones, flogging them...
There was a thread on this a couple months ago which projected around 2 million who have df'd or da'd
I have to admit that I am having a dickens of a time following your figures.
Here is how I think it should be calculated:
Beginning balance (717,088)
Plus total baptisms for the 50 years (8,790,150)
Less 1% mortality per year (1,239,783)
Should equal the expected ending quantity (8,267,455)
The difference between the expected ending quantity (8,267,455)
And the actual ending quantity (5,983,771)
Is the ?shrinkage? (2,283,684) - which contains DFs, DAs, and walkaways
So, as I see it, the number of baptized JWs who have gone AWOL in the past 50 years, and are still alive, is 2,283,684.
This does not count persons who were associated and may have been publishers, but never progressed to baptism. This number could be as large as the baptized defectors. So, the number of xJWs is probably not that much smaller than the number of active JW.
It looks like they are having more and more JWs just disappear... not DFed or DAed or dead... just drifted away.....
Very interesting statistics, especially the graph produced by Elsewhere.
The graph shows a narrowing of the range between expected and actual cultists prior to 1975 and a widening of the gap post 1975. Again there is a narrowing of the gap in the eighties. But bad news for the printing company as we see a late nineties gap widening. This is exactly what we would expect.
The only solution for the executives of the printing company is to come up with a new date for the end of the world. If they don't they can expect to see a widening of the gap between expected cultists and actual cultists to continue to grow.
hello onacruse,
with the beginning of the service year 2003 the slave permitted the 15 minute regulation.
If you count within 90,000 congregations x 3 old persons in average you have about 300,000 additional publishers in a statistic that ist shaped for the public.
try to implement this fact into a statistic for 2003
kind regards kv
kv's point illustrates that there are statistics and damned lies. In other words, we may not even be comparing like with like - the Borg shifts the goalposts, so to speak.
I am convinced, however, that the Borg are very concerned about the losses and will be doing all they can to have their PR dept put a positive spin on it to the R&F.
Yes by all your graphs and predicted projections, it really looks as is if JWs are on the decrease.........no growth seen at all...LOL
(repeat ad infineum)
I wish I had the quote but Sam Herd said the GB don't care about the number and won't take any actions to increase it. I assume the massive the down sizeing of the WTS makes it where unlike other religions as long as there are enought adheirents to run the presses they down need the JW religion.
