Realization of something very close to a supernatural force but scientific

by Bad_Wolf 30 Replies latest jw friends

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  Bad_Wolf

  After finding patterns in lottery numbers and thinking about if random truly exists, I also flipped a coin for awhile. I was counted how many times I would get heads and tails and if they would equal out in the end. If heads slowly was getting ahead too much, I would suddenly get a bunch of tails in a row to almost equal it out. On lottery numbers, I would track and use several calculations to determine numbers that should pop up next, and many times they would. I started to wonder if there was a force that the longer a type of event or tracking was happening and monitored, that outcomes that are supposed to be random could be predicted or odds increased. If pulling 1 number of 70 in a lottery is 1/70, but certain ones are due to pop up, is it truly still a 1/70 chance or much higher chance?

  But others beat me to it. What I am referring to is a combination of the "law of large numbers" and the "central limit theorem". Related to this, Sir Francis Galton said, "I know of scarcely anything so apt to impress the imagination as the wonderful form of cosmic order expressed by the "Law of Frequency of Error". The law would have been personified by the Greeks and deified, if they had known of it. It reigns with serenity and in complete self-effacement, amidst the wildest confusion. The huger the mob, and the greater the apparent anarchy, the more perfect is its sway. It is the supreme law of Unreason. Whenever a large sample of chaotic elements are taken in hand and marshalled in the order of their magnitude, an unsuspected and most beautiful form of regularity proves to have been latent all along."

  It is probably hard to comprehend, and very hard to explain, but essentially the more in which something (an event) can be counted, such as lottery drawings, or life/world events, as soon as an accurate "odds of happening" out of all other variables are factored in, then able to determine when something is due and then it will happen. When you are able to test it yourself and see it happening, it's a mindfuck on reality. Almost like the monitoring photon experiment.
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  OneEyedJoe

  https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/the-gamblers-fallacy
  
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  Bad_Wolf

  oneeyedjoe - It's more the 'the house' policy. Even if a gambler starts to win, if they keep them playing, it's that law that guarantees they will lose and the house will win.
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  OneEyedJoe

  that's not how casinos work. Sometimes people do win. Even if every gambler left while they were ahead, the casino would still be fine because on average there would be enough people that lost from the get-go and never make it up to balance out those that eventually end up ahead.

  If you're really interested in this, take a couple statistics classes and you'll quickly understand why you're wrong.
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  Bad_Wolf

  And I've found several stories of multiple time lottery winners who figured out and used these laws to their advantage. But take this to beyond lottery numbers.

  Terror attacks, crime, natural disasters, getting laid, almost anything that can be measured and counted. The trick is finding all of the possible variables that are in play (with lottery numbers you know them all, each number) but use that logic to replace those numbers with events and the frequency and the greater the # of drawings, the more accurate it can get.
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  Bad_Wolf

  that's not how casinos work. Sometimes people do win. Even if every gambler left while they were ahead, the casino would still be fine because on average there would be enough people that lost from the get-go and never make it up to balance out those that eventually end up ahead.
  If you're really interested in this, take a couple statistics classes and you'll quickly understand why you're wrong.

  Yes I took statistic classes as required for my degree. And the casino is ahead because as you said the average of everybody (all the factors) and over time guarantees that they end up ahead. It will not ever happen that everybody suddenly wins.
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  cofty

  Utter nonsense.

  If you have 50 lottery balls, and you have held 1000 lotteries, but number 22 has only been drawn twice, the chances of it being drawn next time is still exactly the same as that of a number that has previously been drawn 200 times.

  If I spin ten heads in a row the chance of the next throw being a tail is still 50:50

  As OneEyedJoe suggested take some statistics classes.
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  cofty

  The House wins because the odds are in their favour and therefore in the long run any short-term anomalies are cancelled out by long-term statistical odds.

  This has absolutely nothing to do with your assertions in your title and in the OP.

  Yes I took statistic classes as required for my degree

  You should have paid attention in class.
  
  
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  Simon

  Terror attacks, crime, natural disasters, getting laid, almost anything that can be measured and counted. The trick is finding all of the possible variables that are in play (with lottery numbers you know them all, each number)

  Back to front. You can look at factors with crime, terror attacks and such to mitigate risks (where you walk alone, what time of night etc... will alter your chances of being a victim).

  But you know NOTHING about what numbers are going to come up next. Claiming you do makes you a fraud or a fool, hopefully someone only fooling themselves.

  This is such a basic level, it's hard not to just laugh that anyone can be so dumb to imagine a previous coin flip can affect the next one, never mind a previous thousand.

  Unless you have evidence of multiple lottery wins then you're just spouting nonsense.
  
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  Bad_Wolf

  Utter nonsense.
  If you have 50 lottery balls, and you have held 1000 lotteries, but number 22 has only been drawn twice, the chances of it being drawn next time is still exactly the same as that of a number that has previously been drawn 200 times.
  If I spin ten heads in a row the chance of the next throw being a tail is still 50:50

  That goes against probability theory and the law of large numbers. The law of large numbers would dictate that if you held 1000 lotteries, that the more lotteries that are held, the more the numbers will average out to an equilibrium. Which means 1000x5=5000/50=average of 100 drawings per number. If number 22 only had been pulled twice, well it just wouldn't.

  But I'm going to do some lottery experiments, if I am correct, I'll post pictures. Too many numbers to use patterns and probability to definitely get the entire thing without luck, but to narrow down to a pool of numbers definitely.