1914, leap years, and sticky math situation
I thought I'd make this thread to accompany Blondie's post on 1914. Might be helpful to some, especially if you like math. Reading the post will help gather more information to better understand this.
I'm also crediting this page for the first calculations:
We know that in order to get from 607 b.c.e. to 1914 (spanning 2,520 years), the solar calendar of 365.25 days is used. Yet the Watchtower used a 360 day calendar when talking about the prophecy.
This doesn't work because if we calculate the number of days, it doesn't add up:
360 days x 2520 years = 907,200 days
365.25 days x 2520 years = 920,430 days
920,430 days - 907,200 days = 13,230 days in difference
Divide 13,230 by 365.25 days to find out the years in difference.
13,230 days / 365.25 days = 36.22 years.
Since 2520 years from 607 b.c.e. equals 1914 c.e., then 36.22 years difference lands to 1877.78 which is quite close to 1878, the original year Russell and Barbour believed for Christ to have return.
Okay, but what about the leap years mentioned in adding an extra month 7 times within 19 years for a 360 day calendar?
Under what was just calculated, we didn't added the 30 day leap year counted 7 times every 19 years. So to find out about how many times we should use it, let's first see how many times 19 years will appear under 2520 years.
2520/19 = 132.63 times
Therefore 19 years will happen 132.63 times within 2,520 years.
To simplify our calculations, we have to first find out the total number of days within the 19 year span. To find out how many years will be normal years within the 19 years, we must subtract from 7 because 7 years in total will be leap years:
19 years - 7 years = 12 years
12 years will be the amount of normal years. How many days will there be within 12 years?
12 years x 360 days = 4320 days
How many days will there be in 7 leap years?
7 years x 390 days = 2,730 days
Now add both numbers:
4320 days + 2730 days = 7,050 days
Every 19 years will equal 7,050 days in total.
Since 19 years will appear 132.63 times (or years) within a span of 2,520 years, we multiply the numbers to find out the total number of days:
7,050 days x 132.63 times = 935,041.5 days
935,041.5 days is a large difference from 907,200 days (360 calendar) or 920,430 (365.25 calendar).
If we were to find out what year we land in:
935,041.5 days - 920,430 days = 14,611.5 days in difference
Within a 365.25 day calendar:
14,611.5/ 365.25 = 40 years
1914 + 40 = 1954, so in reality if we follow the 360 day calendar including its leap years, we land on 1954. Far from 1914 or any significant world date.
If you notice any errors, feel free to point it (or them) out down below.
Just a point on leap years.
I thought the average year was slightly less than 365.25 which is why we don't add an extra day in a year that is divisible by 100 unless it is divisible by 400 when we do.
If we didn't do this the calendar would be a day out every 3,000 years or so.
Edited to say it probably wouldn't matter over 2520 years......Back to bed!
The 1914 doctrine, as shown on the other Thread by dear Blondie, is complete and utter bollocks from start to finish. Literally.
As the start is bollocks, i.e Daniel 4, then don't bother with the rest.
Even though the 1914 date is pure bovine crap, very nice analysis nevertheless!
I agree, thanks for your work, A.P.
Sometimes though, for many JW's, the fine detail is too much, they may be having to learn all about 1914, just to unlearn it, which is why I posted my succinct point, i.e it ain't in the Bible.
Both approaches are right for different kinds of JW's.
Dont they say it goes by the Jewish calendar which used the moon?
So a lunar year is - 354 days - that doesnt fix the math either.
The year 1914 was first calculated by measuring the inches inside of a pyramid in Egypt. It was from an inner chamber to somewhere else. The original calculation showed the year 1874 as being the end. When this failed they had to change the length of an inch to "pyramid inches" to come to 1914.
After chuckie russel died the corporation had to distance itself from the quackery of pyramidology. They adopted the 2520 days equals a year quackery to support their 1914 doctrine.
as for calculating leap years and prophetic years verses calander years mumbo jumbo it really doesn't matter because Jerusalem was destroyed in 587 not 607 bce.
To compound the problem is the fact that the generation of 1914 was not supposed to pass away is that they are all pretty much dead now. So now they have to make up a bullshit definition of generation to try to keep 1914 relevant to the religion.
as far as I am concerned the leaders of this religion have been bullshitting the members for the last 150 years and will do so for another 150 years as long as the gullible buy into it. It really doesn't matter to me anymore as long as I can keep my family intact and save enough money for my old age.
@ St. George
i actually didn't know that a year wasn't exactly 365.25 days a year. It's an approximate number from what I read so far. Makes the whole think more complicated
Nevertheless my point was to show how complicated the whole thing is and to disprove the leap years excuse. Of course we know that 1914 isn't true and can be proven in other ways. But can you imagine people In the distant past sitting down to do the math if this was the formula?
Sorry, but you lost me after the third line.
Too much math for my brain.