The scenario. Leon Festinger, a young psychiatrist, and a group of his henchmen (students) joined a flying saucer cult that predicted a catastrophe. They joined as observers and recorders to see whether its predictive pattern and method of dealing with post expectation ‘disappointment’ fit the pattern for the cognitive dissonance theory Festinger was researching. Festinger published the results of the research in a book called “When Prophecy Fails” and therafter published his cognitive dissonance theory under the title “A Theory of Cognitive Dissonance”.
Many of the events that took place during the days of ‘expectation’ in the saucer group and the explanations arrived at to justify the failure of the prophecies when they were not fulfilled will be very familiar to many here.
Firstly it must be stated that The Flying saucer group Festinger penetrated predicted a two fold ‘expectation’. A great flood would come and would sweep away the city they resided in. PRIOR to that flood, flying saucers would come and airlift the ‘faithful’ to safety. So the prediction of destruction had a ‘prefullfilment’ associated with it, As this account progresses it will be shown that the failure of prefullfilments to eventuate causes a ‘hedging’ on the major fulfilment shortly before the major expectation time is reached.
Festinger records the events of the first meeting he attended on page 91 of “When Prophecy Fails”. The End of the World prediction was already public knowledge at this time:
“ Although both Mrs Keech and Doctor Armstrong believed that they would receive their orders sometime during the meeting of the 23 rd neither apparently had any idea what the orders might be, or in what form, or thru which messenger they may be transmitted. Accordingly they were prepared to consider almost anyone in the group as a potential messenger from outer space and almost any declaration an order.”
In fact the cult leaders first focused their attention upon Festinger as a possible messenger from the heavens, though he managed to slip out of the role as his plan was to ‘observe’ only. After that little letdown:
“Perhaps 20 minutes of complete , tense, silence…. then Bertha Blatsky began to breathe very deeply in short sighing breaths…. Her heavy breathing continued at a rapid rate and she began to sob….Within moments Armstrong and Keech had crossed the room to assist her….She broke off suddenly with a shriek and cried ‘oh no! Not me! He cant mean me!’…. Mrs Keech loudly and clearly repeating ‘ Oh yes He does Bertha! He does mean you!”
This is such a typical scenario, as Ive observed it myself, within a New Age channelling group or UFO communication group. Everyone waiting for someone else to lead the way and receive a ‘transmission’ from the beyond. A scenario that, in time, leads to a lot of power struggles for domination within the group. What is of interest here though is the level of social pressure to ‘receive’ a message with everyone sat there embarrassed, tense, and waiting. Invariably the tension produces a response, in the end, as someone breaks down into ‘channelling’. 20 minutes of tense silence and personal internal rationalization can work wonders. Efforts to comply with the group requirement for channelling, however lame the efforts might be, are reinforced with sympathy, physical encouragement, and words of support.
According to Festingers theory, as the time for the arrival of the great event nears there is a tendancy within groups to adopt a ‘shut door’ position. By this I mean that salvation is declared as ‘ended’ and those who are to be saved are felt to be already within the confines of the group. This is borne out in Festingers experience within the saucer group (page102):
“ Mrs Armstrong announced that she had ceased editing and duplicating lessons. She urged those who had copies of the lessons to ‘keep them under wraps’ and Doctor Armstrong announced that he had received orders to destroy all extra copies of the lessons, as well as the groups mailing list…the 11 th hour had been passed. And noone else may join”
This tendancy to avoid talking to outsiders ‘pre expectation’ is exactly the OPPOSITE of what occurs ‘Post Disappointment’. In the midst of ‘disappointment’ (according to Festingers theory) such groups are most eager to seek publicity for their beliefs and opinions.
Returning to the pre apocalypse period, Festinger observed a very great tendancy toward extreme ‘actions of commitment’. Actions such as (page 107):
“There had been blanket orders about quitting jobs…All of them on orders from the ‘guardians’. All of them were living from day to day…Not only were they living with Mrs Keech, but all were under orders not to leave the house”.
In the theory, the performance of such extreme ‘commitment actions’ as leaving employment, moving location, leaving spouse, selling property, etc, are very powerful influences in the ‘disappointment’ period in compelling the member to continue holding his belief even in the face of a total disconfirmation.
As the day for the preflood ‘liftoff’ of the chosen in the saucer cult arrived, bizarre scenes took place at cult central. Scenes very similar to those I witnessed myself during the 1995 Saucer ‘landings’ expectation here in Melbourne (page 109):
“In one room downstairs Doctor Armstrong was busy ripping the zipper out of the fly of his trousers. Mark Post energetically removed the eyelets from his shoes. Frank Novick was wearing a rope in place of his belt as was Clyde Wilton….All the members had received orders to remove any metal from their persons before boarding the saucers”.
But of course, the saucers didn’t arrive to remove the faithful to heaven.
What happened after that will comprise a second part of this tale.