We can now estimate the absolute minimum number of child abuse cases

by Viviane 30 Replies latest watchtower child-abuse

• 

  Viviane

  Vincent tool said that he is exclusively working the phones for child abuse cases, but never said he is not the only one. For now, Let's assume the rate of abuse cases averages over time to the three or four cases he gets per month. Let's further assume that, since he isn't the only person working the phones and is on vacation at some point, the number is 4-5 per month, or 4.5 per month. Over the past 60 year, that works out to ....

  ...3240.

  Or more than 3 times the amount we know about.

  In Australia alone.

  Think about that.
• 

  C0ntr013r

  I was thinking the same thing.

  68 000 publishers = 4.5 each month or 54 that year.

  1971 there where around 23 000 publishers which would be around 1.5 each month or 18 that year.

  54+18=72

  72*22=1584

  So since 1971 (44 years) there should have been around 1584 phone calls regarding this issue to the legal department. (if the number is consistent and if the requirement to contact the legal department had been in place)
• 

  Viviane

  True on the varying number of JWs.

  Also, prior to the instructions to call the service department, we lack any way to know how many calls or cases wen't completely undealt with. It's absolutely higher, by far, than the 1006 cases over 60 years.

  Also, Angus produced a letter from the branch to the GB mentioning the list of names! The list is confirmed to exist!
• 

  punkofnice

  In Australia alone.
  Think about that.

  It's very sickening. When I look back over my time as a JW, there were a number of paedophiles that got exposed. One committed suicide and one served time in jail.

  When I was an elder, I never came across or was involved in any child abuse cases. The CoBE seemed to keep certain information away from some of the other elders that were not in his clique of bullies.

  I have to say I am bloomin' impressed with the Aussy RC and also with the efforts of the guys and gals here to assist the RC. I sent an email to them too.

  All wood for the fire.

  I hope that this will force 'god's mouthpiece, that isn't his mouthpiece, on earth(tm) to protect the victims/potential victims going forward. Jehovah(tm) is obviously too stupid to give the GB proper direction. He leaves that to good old Satan!
• 

  _Morpheus

  Im not sure that assumption is valid. You included far too many variables that are unproven (number of calls, people taking calls) as indicated by your frequent use of the word "assume".

  A more reasonable extrapolation would be to compare the number reported per 1000 in the Aussie population as a whole and extrapolate that per 1000 of jw in Australia. Those numbers should be fairly easy to find. I will hit google and see how it compares out
• 

  _Morpheus

  Bravehearts reports about 19 per 1000 reports of abuse in the general population

  
  

  There are about 66,000 publishers in Australia. That works out to about 3,473 potential abuse cases.

  
  

  Interestingly close to viv's number of 3240. But my methodology was much better and is therefore valid.
• 

  oppostate

  So regardless of the methodology the number comes out quite similar. This means that the estimates are well founded and one could give credence to the amount of over twice what the WT reported to the RC.
• 

  Oubliette

  A couple of important points to keep in mind, the majority of sexual abusers do not limit themselves to a single victim. Dr. Monica Applewhite acknowledged that in her testimony. Also, it is likely that there are abusers whom the WT Australia Branch is unaware. This means that the 1,006 known abusers represent a much larger number of victims. How many, it is impossible to know.

  Let's extrapolate this to the Worldwide Work, shall we?

  There were 66,484 publishers in Australia last year and 7,867,958 average publishers total (source: 2015 Yearbook).

  A little quick math suggests that there likely has been more than 100,000 abusers in the organization over the last half century. This suggests that there has been many hundreds of victims of their abuse, possibly in the millions!

  Obviously, this mental exercise involves a certain amount of conjecture and speculation, but I don't believe there is any valid reason to believe the problem in Australia is unique or significantly different to any other area or culture. Are Australians more depraved than other people? Nothing suggests this. On the contrary, that the Australian government is leading the way in addressing it suggests the opposite if anything.
  

  Also, I have not made any attempts to adjust for various growth rates of the religion throughout the world over the last 50 years. But I don't think that is important or necessary to understand the point.
  

  What is important is to allow the significance of the known facts to really sink in. Take some time with this and ponder what it really says about this religion, particularly in light of its history of pointing their finger at other religions meanwhile denying their own moral failing. Really consider the magnitude of this problem.
  

  The facts speak for themselves, JW/WT's own internal records document "more than one child abuse allegation every month yet in 60 years has never reported them to police."

  Not one single report in more than half a century with more than 1,000 opportunities to do the right thing. Never. Not once. This is one of the most stunningly spectacular failures I have ever seen!

  Then, let's review: It's not just a cult, it is one of the worst, most damaging and destructive religious cults in the history of mankind!
• 

  Heaven

  I figured out at as a teenager that mathematics is one of Religion's Achilles' heels, especially the JW religion.
  
• 

  jws

  Not to say you're wrong, but how can you work out any sort of minimum using assumptions?

  How do you know your assumptions are anywhere near ballpark or consistent? 4.5 calls/month, 60 years, etc.

  Morpheus's reasoning seems more based on stats, if Bravehearts is accurate.

  I'd guess there might also be other demographics at play too that could push those numbers one way or another. Average age of offender vs. age of JW population, extrapolating that to perhaps those with more power able to manipulate situations in their favor. And as JW populations tend to involve those turning in time, what about the non-publishers who are still at meetings?