by cyberguy 22 Replies latest jw friends
I'm trying to reconcile the Society's stats in the Awake , Dec. 8th, page 8! They claim that there's a 1 in 5,100 probability of being killed in a plane crash! However, I can't seem to verify this claim from stats I've researched.
See http://www.planecrashinfo.com/cause.htm
Edited by - cyberguy on 11 November 2002 23:0:10
Wouldn't be the first time their numbers were wrong.
Safe,
r u paying attention?
Cyberguy,
What do your stats say?
out
The only stats I have seen on this,is that a person would have to fly every day for 250 years to be involved in a crash,and the odds are that person would survive it.
I saw that on a TV programme here in the UK about air crashes.
Take care,
Rich.
Hi Rich,
I've heard too, that it's much safer to fly than to drive our cars. I don't know the statistics, but I sure hope so. We are catching a flight on Wednesday of this week, and another the following week for vacations. I'm always a bit uneasy when I fly. (Someone once told me that worrying is wasted, because as the plane quickly loses altitude prior to the crash, you pass out before you hit the ground or water! And that was supposed to be comforting! )
For the last 11 years it has been my responsibility to maintain the air traffic control system in a large metropolitan area, and I assure you that figure cannot be correct!
Assuming you are reporting the assertion of AWAKE correctly, why would anyone in his or her right mind ever want to fly? By that figure, a racecar driver or the guy they shoot out of a canon would have less of a chance of fatality.
Freeman
For the last 11 years it has been my responsibility to maintain the air traffic control system in a large metropolitan area, and I assure you that figure cannot be correct!
Assuming you are reporting the assertion of AWAKE correctly, why would anyone in his or her right mind ever want to fly? By that figure, a racecar driver or the guy they shoot out of a canon would have less of a chance of fatality.
Freeman
Edited by - freeman on 11 November 2002 19:32:13
The Aerospace industry rates flying fatalities on a "per passenger mile" basis to compare the relative safety to automobile fatalities. Some friends of mine in the aerospace insustry do not like the per passenger mile method. Using this method, I recall a safety factor much greater than the 5,000 + the Watchtower uses according to your post. Personally, I do not agree with the "per passenger mile" rating, and favor either "fatalities per vehicle" method or the fatalities per "vehicle starts and stops vs per aircraft landing and take-offs" rating ... this, in my opinion, gives a more accurate comparison, but still exceeds the Watchtower figures ... I am not sure what source they are relying on. Gawd knows where they get their data from or how they misuse and mangle it.
Edited by - Amazing on 11 November 2002 20:51:11
Hey freeman,
I double-checked the figure and the one I quoted above is correct! When I first saw it, I said to myself, "should I be flying?" Anyway, their table of figures on page 8, doesn't match anything I can find on the net! More crap from from "The Christian Congregation of JW's, INC!!!"
As I read it the 1 in 5100 figure given in Awake! are overall lifetime odds and as such have little or nothing to do with the average person. Their cited source is the National Safety Council http://www.nsc.org
Similar figures to that quoted in Awake! can be found on this page: http://www.nsc.org/lrs/statinfo/odds.htm
