Extrapolation of the Australia child abuse numbers
- Another point Bill Bowen just made on Facebook is that the 1006 documented cases are those where the elders determined that the accused was guilty of abuse. When the elders don't feel there is enough evidence and "leave it in Jehovah's hands" those cases do NOT get documented. The Borg doesn't keep record of all accusations anyone ever makes to an elder, only the ones that merit forming a judicial committee. Therefore there are a LOT MORE than 1006 pedos in Australia.
On page 2 of this post: There are 400K registered sex offenders in the USA and 320M inhabitants that is 0.13% of the population
That is just the *registered* offenders. I know for a fact there are MANY more offenders than are on the list. Some are just plain not even reported. Others avoid getting on the list by having a good attorney who works the system for their client to prevent this 'stigma' from being placed on their wealthy, prominent community member.
Edit to add: Regarding extrapolating the data to show a huger potential, I don't see how that is even necessary. The documented numbers are bad enough. Simply noting that many, MANY cases are not even reported to ANYONE, that these 1006 are in Australia alone, and that it is 1006 *offenders*, not the number of victims. Most offenders assault multiple victims.
I think those numbers are solid -- and SCARY enough -- to get the attention of most decent people. No need to risk being considered an over-the-top alarmist.
The situation as it is presented, is bad enough. VERY bad, indeed.
I'd like to reiterate what I posted on the previous page...
...that this is the biggest reason why the WTS has been trying to keep a lid on the problem all this time.
Because if JW parents can't find a congregation doesn't have a sex offender in it (in good standing, no less!), how many out there do you think will simply stop going*?
*even if simply to minimize the risks to their kids (belief in the WT's status as "God's Channel" notwithstanding)?
Okay, I reiterated twice...
...weird, I didn't intend that.
The numbers include 125 accused who didn't have any JW punishment dealt out, as they didn't meet the two witness required.
What Bill Bowen says would be true prior to the change when those numbers were collected. After sir82 mentioned this, I think it was 1989ish when that happened. But it's certainly an understatement of numbers of those alleged serious sex offenders.
- For every rat you see there are twenty you don't. This is the tip of an iceberg.
Okay, it's reiterated twice...
...weird; I did not intend that.
Haven't time to read the whole Thread, Mrs Phizzy has tasks for me (groan), but has anyone pointed out in this extrapolation exercise that the 1006 cases are over a number of years ?
So it doesn't easily follow that there is at least one Paedophile per Congregation.
This may have been factored in, please let me know, but I just wished to introduce a word of caution, as when talking to JW's, if you get something wrong, they will dismiss your whole argument. That rule does not apply to them of course, no matter how many problems you point out with their stuff, they still think it has some merit.
has anyone pointed out in this extrapolation exercise that the 1006 cases are over a number of years ?
Yeah I tried to factor that in, in my "assumptions".
In the end, it is all just speculation of course. Data is woefully inadequate. I was just trying to get a feel for the magnitude of the issue.
"One pedophile per congregation" is, admittedly, probably on the high end of the range of reasonable numbers that could be extrapolated.
- Arent they even preaching in jails to criminals, arent there even congregation in jails, as lately shown on BORG TV. What after the criminal comes into a normal congregation, will it be mentioned that this bro was a criminal former?