Extrapolation of the Australia child abuse numbers

by sir82 43 Replies latest watchtower child-abuse

• 

  sir82

  You are suggesting that 2% of the JWs are "active" child molesters in good standing within the congregation.

  That is 1 for every 50 publishers...

  I would say maybe closer to 1 out of 100, but I think based on what has been revealed in the Royal Commission hearings, and knowing what we do about the (lack of) frequency of reporting of the issue (both inside and outside the organization), it is the conclusion that the numbers lead to.

  And if I'm exaggerating by 50%? That's still 1 or more molesters per Kingdom Hall auditorium. The scale, the magnitude of the problem - unless my assumptions are wildly and crazily unreasonable, it is on that order. There is a molester, on average, in every Kingdom Hall in the world - maybe more than one.
  
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  sir82

  There are 400K registered sex offenders in the USA and 320M inhabitants that is 0.13% of the population
  

  Roughly 1 for every 1000 people

  What is the ratio worldwide?

  How many child molesters are caught, prosecuted, and registered in say, Brazil? or Mexico? or Nigeria? (All countries with multiple hundreds of thousands of JWs each).

  Maybe in the USA, where the overall problem is (finally) being publicized, the JWs do not have 13X the ratio of abusers in their midst. But how about elsewhere?
  
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  flipper

  SIR 82- Interesting thread. I think about 5 years ago or more someone here started a thread about how many child molesters are in each congregation after it was revealed about the 23,000 or whatever the count is of known JW pedophiles within the WT database files. Then someone calculated it out that it's no stretch of the imagination at all that there are probably for the most part about 1 or 2 child molesters in each congregation if averaged out. Some congregations may have as many as 5 to 7 - however some may not have any- that being said the average at 1 or 2 per congregation is WAY too many to be allowed and totally unacceptable to be happening. Especially when you consider how negligent the WT Society has been worldwide in not reporting child abuse incidents to police authorities. WT's secrets are being exposed in the media big time now. Needs to keep happening

  P.S. Back in 2007 when I checked the Megan's law registered sex offender list in my hometown I was raised in - out of 1,000 sex offenders 12 of them I recognized as JW's or former JW's that I knew in my 25 years of being raised in that same town from birth. This is definitely a much bigger problem than many JW's realize. Peace out, Flipper
• 

  konceptual99

  Completely anecdotal but I raised the BBC report amongst a gang of friends over the weekend representing 3 congregations and we all knew of a case in each of our halls in the past 20 or so years. We also knew of another serious case in a friend's hall. I also know of a case in a local congregation that is not known about publicly and I have no idea if anyone in the congregation has been warned. There are some particular circumstances around the case but I know the person concerned goes to meetings.

  This of course is related to people known to have committed abuse. We've got no idea if there is anyone else around that is either not known, never been convicted or otherwise.

  It also is nothing to do with cases that have made the news over recent months.

  My personal opinion is that I find it unlikely that there is as many as 1 or 2 abusers in each congregation of roughly 100 in the UK but 1-5 per circuit would not surprise me at all.
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  C0ntr013r

  What is the ratio worldwide?

  
  How many child molesters are caught, prosecuted, and registered in say, Brazil? or Mexico? or Nigeria? (All countries with multiple hundreds of thousands of JWs each).

  I don't know, I have not researched the matter properly.
  

  Maybe in the USA, where the overall problem is (finally) being publicized, the JWs do not have 13X the ratio of abusers in their midst. But how about elsewhere?

  I think a group of 320M people should give us a pretty good idea of what the percentage is, USA as far as I understand don't have mandatory reporting laws in all states either so it is similar to Australia?

  The world average and the percentage in Australia might be a little different but will probably be close to it; 0,1% - 0,16%.

  I would say maybe closer to 1 out of 100

  That would be 1% which would still be 7,7 times more than 0,13

  Which still sound way to high to me.
  
  

  That's still 1 or more molesters per Kingdom Hall auditorium. The scale

  If the average congregation consists of 80 members, you would need at least 1/80 to be pedophiles. This is 1,25% which would be almost 10 times more than society's average.

  
  

  Lets say that there are 3 times more pedophiles within the JW's than normal society, that is 300% more which is a lot, but lets say that this is the case.

  0,13*3=0,39

  100/0,39=256,4

  One molester for every 256 witnesses.

  If the average congregation contains 80 ppl... 256,4/80=3,2

  1 pedophile for every 3,2 congregations.

  
  
  
• 

  sir82

  1 pedophile for every 3,2 congregation.

  And with an average of 2 or 3 congregations per KH auditorium, you have.....at least 1 pedophile per Kingdom Hall.

  As I stated earlier:

  There is a molester, on average, in every Kingdom Hall in the world - maybe more than one.
• 

  C0ntr013r

  And with an average of 2 or 3 congregations per KH auditorium, you have.....at least 1 pedophile per Kingdom Hall.

  If that is what you meant, I would agree with you. Not sure the average is 2-3 congregations per KH thou. In the cities yes but when you move away from the cities you will find a lot of congregations with one KH that they share with no one.

  At least where I live, only the big cities share KH's. The wast majority don't. It might be different where you live but I doubt the world average is 2-3 per KH.

  Correct me if I em wrong.
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  Mephis

  To me, it seems that It is pointing towards numbers which would have almost every congregation having knowledge of at least one person being accused of serious sexual crimes against children within the past 25 years. For such small communities, that's horrific.
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  sir82

  I will admit I am more familiar with larger cities and their suburbs, than with "the boonies".
  

  I do not know of any Kingdom Hall with less than 2 congregations per KH. Most have at least 3. Even in my (limited) travels to more remote areas, I've always seen at least 2 per Kingdom Hall.
  

  I would suspect that just as most of the US population is clustered around cities & suburbs, most JWs attend a Kingdom Hall with 2 or more congregations.

  Anyways, point is - most JWs probably would think "oh there aren't any molesters around here". But it seems reasonable to conclude that they (molesters) are far more common in the congregations than most JWs believe.
  
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  Vidiot

  I'd like to reiterate something I posted on the previous page...

  ...that this is the biggest reason why the WTS has been trying to keep a lid on the problem all this time.

  Because if JW parents can't find a congregation that doesn't have an abuser (in good standing, no less) how many out there do you think will simply stop going?