FEWER NEW ZEALAND CITIZENS AFFILIATED WITH JWS IN 2013 THAN IN 1996: SUCCESSIVE YEARS OF DECREASE

by steve2 28 Replies latest watchtower bible

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  Gayle

  On the Census, does this mean possibly counting children, not publishing yet. I mean does the Census ask a household of JWs, which includes non-publishing that all are counted, even if there was an UBM, would be counted as a JW anyway.

  Maybe also, some tho not publishing the previous year, some may still wanted to be counted as so, maybe with intent to activate, or reactivate.

  Now, it indicates that less people if no longer active, have any intent of returning someday either, and don't want to be counted as JW at all.
• 

  steve2

  Yes, Gayle, fair assumptions. All New Zealanders are included in the census, babies too. JW parents simply endorse their children as JWs. Also, the Witnesses, like other religious organizations, have a guaranteed supply of those who are "half-in" or "half out" -this means a census figure is invariably higher than the annual active publishers tallies. That the number of those identifying as JWs is lower than those who did so more than 17 years ago in 1996, suggests the supply of hangers-on, if not active members, has shrunk. I note that, even after the shrinkage following 1975, they quickly bounced back in numbers, unlike the present picture of sustained decline.
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  yadda yadda 2

  And didn't they close their Bethel recently and sell the property?
• 

  steve2

  Yes, late last year. I get impression JWs are floundering in New Zealand.
• 

  besty

  NZ is definitely on the slide. Look at the stats in the table here:

  http://www.jehovahs-witness.net/jw/friends/271871/1/More-JW-STATS-from-this-years-CA-Gode28099s-Word-Is-Beneficial-for-Teaching#.Uuz3J1Z_t90

  Looks doing me like they are at 20% of their expected sales target.
• 

  Corney

  According to recently published 2018 census data, there are 20,061 people identifying themselves as JWs in NZ (see this file, table 26). For comparison, in 2013 this figure was 17,931, in 2006 - 17,910, and in 2001 - 17,829 (source; see this file, table 30). The peak publishers figure for 2018 was 14,301.

  I guess this surprise change can be partially attributed to changes in census methodology.
• 

  slimboyfat

  Very interesting results. I didn’t expect JW census numbers to be up. I wonder how it compares with the trend of other groups such as Mormons, Christadelphians and SDAs. I’ll need to check.
• 

  slimboyfat

  Mormons are up too, from 40,000 to 54,000, so maybe there is a change in methodology. Is this stated somewhere?

  Worth noting that Mormons claim 114,000 members in New Zealand but the census only shows 54,000. This is despite the fact that Mormons often campaign for as many people to identify with the church as possible in censuses.

  Whereas JWs claim 14,000 members in New Zealand and the census shows 20,000.

  Which is the same you find in all over the world: Mormons exaggerate membership and JWs underestimate.

  It’s difficult to compare other groups because the categories don’t seem to match across the different censuses and small groups like Christadelphians and Quakers appear to be absent in the earlier results.
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  Corney

  First, the religion question changed. Is it possible that some JWs previously just checked the box "Christian" instead of specifying their denomination?

  
  

  Source, see page 40 of the PDF document.

  Secondly, this census appears to be the first one for which religious affiliation data was imputed: "Imputation is planned for this variable where there is no response. Where available, historic data from the 2013 Census will be imputed. Failing this, religion will be determined from the usual resident who is the closest in age in the household. In cases where neither of these are possible, donor imputation will be employed." (Ibid, p. 40-41).

  8.8 percent of religious affiliation responses were imputed from the 2013 Census, and another 8.8 percent were proportionally imputed from similar respondents: http://datainfoplus.stats.govt.nz/Item/nz.govt.stats/472884ac-0f5f-4606-827c-b7153a1a51b1/?_ga=2.173337123.1020392386.1578236967-6827924.1578236967 It didn't necessarily resulted in overestimation of JW population but still.

  Thridly, the data collection methods significantly changed.

  https://www.stats.govt.nz/methods/2018-census-a-modernised-digital-first-census

  https://www.stats.govt.nz/methods/2018-census-technical-support-information