Metatron in your opinion do you think the world will see it soon? How soon?
When will world realize zero population growth?
by N.drew 44 Replies latest social current
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FatFreek 2005
When the USA stops subsidizing its citizens and other countries for simply squirting out babies.
Oops! I didn't realize this was a private thread to Metatron.
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N.drew
No it is not private. He said I was not up to date about the demographics. So I'm asking him.
And I think you have identified one problem needing changing (a tough one for sure).
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N.drew
The report that got me thinking about the need to slow down growth is from a TV show I watched.
The biggest problem about an oil shortage (if it is so) is regarding food production and distribution. Oil by products fertilize crops and oil is used in it's distribution. When oil is scarce other ways of growing and transporting food will be needed. Will it be in place at the right time, or not?
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metatron
start here:
http://web.inter.nl.net/users/Paul.Treanor/nohumans.html
It's less a question of zero population growth than population declines in developed nations. However, there have been surprizing declines in birthrates even in 3rd world nations.
I was just reading that Iran's leaders are frightened at their low birthrate and what it portends.
What bugs me about this topic the most are stock market/economist types who simply ignore demographics and make all sorts of rosy predictions without considering demographic issues. How can you have GDP growth in a nation with more old people and fewer workers? or just fewer people generally? How does China become the biggest economy when the one child policy cuts into their work force and leaves them with a huge number of elderly?
metatron
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N.drew
The declines in any nation should not be used as a forecast for world population decline unless it can be proved that the decline is not due to exodus.
Metatron what do you think of the scenario of lack of enough food production and distribution associated with a decline in oil?
Add along with that stripped farming land. Will there be enough food for the world's people even if the population has no increase? some people say no! not unless the problem is fixed immediately. People should recognize there will be a problem. I'm not talking about people who will draw closer to the god and stock food items. I'm talking about science, technology, governments and the rich. Are they doing enough to halt the downward trend?
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blondie
I'm no expert but I always wondered how the demographics would be affected in countries like India and China that have more young men than marriageable women.
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metatron
Let's slow down a bit...
First, we're talking about declines in the birthrate - leading to net deaths over live births as in Russia, etc. People are having fewer kids in nearly all of the developed world. This is not about any exodus. Developed nations are, to the contrary, generally a draw for immigrants.
There will be some problems with food production but nothing extreme is very likely, at least in developed nations. Go on a drive thru any New England state and take note of how much former farmland has gone back to nature, unused. Higher agricultural productivity has greatly reduced the need for farm land. Fewer people grow more food on less land now.
Oil, in relation to farm machinery and fertilizer, is a problem but need not be a disaster. Huge amounts of nat gas are going to be coming on line soon. $100 a barrel oil vs $15 dollar a 'barrel' nat gas equivalent is going to drive conversion in trucks, buses and eventually, cars.
Also, oil consumption in the US has declined due to cost and the economy and the same will likely happen in Europe as their economies sink into debt troubles.
And...... there are other 'wild cards' that might emerge. For example, a really good, high charge density battery would change the world radically, as would a practical 'Cold Fusion' device. Such things would defund terrorism, cause governments in the MidEast to collapse , eliminate global warming worries, deeply cut the trade deficit and remove power from oil companies and big banks.
In summary, don't buy into doom and gloom scenarios. There are many good things that are likely to happen.
metatron
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Knowsnothing
eliminate global warming worries
The damage is already done. As sea levels rise and inundate coastal areas, expect mass exoduses and salinization of fresh water supplies and arable land.
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metatron
Uh... no
Global warming, as a general trend across many decades, is science. The hysteria about it is based on speculation .... and much of it is simply irresponsible. It's a shame that many of these academic fear-mongers have tenure that prevents them from being fired.
Sea levels actually dropped:
metatron