I can only hope there is a mass education program in China against the witlesses. And I hope they have to use more paper on S-77 forms than on wastes of paper, precluding any positive growth. I would like to see a grand total of zero witlesses in 2020.
I read a study about the WTS-Growth
I have to apologise for not bookmarking the study. It was not a JW study, but was an academic study made based on their rates of growth from its inception and the overall trends. Not just in the US or 'West', but internationally-where most growth is happening.
I searched diligently through the internet. . .and found the study again. Here it is http://www.theocraticlibrary.com/downloads/Why_Jehovah%27s_Witnesses_Grow_So_Rapidly.pdf found on page 22 of the study.
I wonder what the growth has been since 1975-which should have done them in. Proportionately, I mean.
I gotta tell you! I screwed up. It was 28 million by 2090 with a 2% growth rate. 194,000,000 with a 4% growth rate!
For 2020, it was only 12,500.00 with a 4% growth rate. Which is bad enough!
This study is over a decade old. It is pretty much outdated. Worldwide growth number have drastically decreased going into the 2000's for the organization, among other things. The first line in their paper is:
During the past 75 years the Jehovah’s Witnesses have sustained an extraordi- nary rate of growth—currently more than 5% per year—and have done so on a global scale.
The growth rates of the past ten years so us that this trend simply is no longer true. IN some years the growth rate has been under half that number. Additionally, the article does not comprehensively deal with the organizations huge membership losses.
I could really go line by line through this whole document, most of what I see shows a rash desire to overgeneralize from very little data or knowledge. For example:
The Witnesses claimed their average number of publishers in Canada was 100,991 for 1991. In contrast, the 1991 Canadian Census found 168,375 self- identified Witnesses. What this shows is that there are many Canadians who report themselves to be Witnesses, but who are not counted as publishers. Consequently, membership statistics based on the average number of publishers offer a very conservative estimate.
The author fails to realize there can be multiple reasons for this discrepancy. While it is true that there are publishers that are not counted by the Watchtowers records, the author of this paper fails to recognize the reach of inactive Witnesses. Many times people who in inactive in the faith (including disfellowshipped people) may identify themselves as Jehovah's Witnesses. The paper also doesn't tell us the methods used to collect the data that is mentioned. All things considered, the fact hat there are an extra 67,000 people self identified as Jehovah's Witnesses can potentially tell us many things, but without more data we simply can not infer much from what is available. It's my personal feeling that these people represent those outside the organization who either had casual membership with the group (going for years, growing up jw but never getting baptized) as well as people who have left the group physically but not mentally. As I posted earlier, the Watchtower organization has one of the highest membership loss rates. While this doesn't effect the organization in terms of negative growth, it is well possible that this factor explains large portions of the population that call themselves witnesses but are not 'active' in the societies terms.
I wouldn't worry to much.
We may reach a point where everyone on the planet has BEEN a Jehovah's Witness but NO ONE stayed except for a few who lost their minds along the way.
Europe and Western countries have hardly any growth considering the huge amount of preaching going on. Some third world countries are still booming but the last ten years have been very slow.
E.g. in Norway, there are roughly 10,200 JWs reporting. However, according to official statistics, there are close to 15,000 witnesses. This is because children of witnesses are also included. In Norway, JWs along with all other registered faith groups, receive governmental support, that is a specific sum based on the number of adherents. If the witnesses had not been registered, the share of the JWs had gone in the main pot, instead tax money is re-cycled into their own group. It amounts to some 700-800,000 a year, I have read.... Correct me someone, if I am wrong.
Like others I'd question the methodology of this study.
Sounds to me like they did not account for the 1/3 walkaway rate. Retention has never been the strong suite of the Watchtower based cult.
Their numbers have pretty much stabilised, on a global scale many people come in and many leave as do also many JW children when they grow up. Any growth from now on will be slow and mainly third world.
The public at large realised that the WTS after 120 years of totally pointless and disappointing existence has nothing of value to offer to the world. The failed prophecies about the end, the many needless deaths often of underage children due to the blood policy, the desruction of families, the scandalous lack of charitable work towards the poor and the needy, the rigidly authoritarian self serving leadership, the internet, the ex JW enlightment effort by Ray Franz etc etc. These took their toll.