The growing irrelevance of the Watchtower message

by drew sagan 94 Replies latest watchtower beliefs

• 

  neverendingjourney

  unless the movement begins to make some major changes like other contemporary institutions have, it is troubled times ahead.

  I think your analysis is mostly spot on, but I don't think mainstream reforms are essential for the Watchtower's long-term survival. Have you considered the possibility that they might tear down their current eschatological structure and come up with an entirely new one? All they'd have to do is say "new light" and the vast majority of their members would buy into it. Sure, a few people here and there would leave, but that kind of a move would reinvigorate the religion and give their members something new and exciting to look forward to. They could find a new way to interpret prophecy that puts Armageddon no more than 30 or 40 years away. This would bring back the excitement that used to be present in the religion throughout its early history.

  I believe there are two routes to assure the Watchtower's long-term survival: (1) mainstream reforms along the lines of what you suggest and (2) wholesale reinvention of their eschatological beliefs. The status quo cannot be maintained because they currently offer a stick with no carrot, sacrifices with no tangible reward. The first route would be the soundest direction to go in, from a business perspective. However, I believe, as you do, that the Watchtower leaders genuinely believe their own nonsense. Putting in place mainstream reforms entails recognition on the part of the GB that they were wrong, that the religion they believe in failed them personally and that they in turn mislead millions of followers. I don't see this happening. The current GB members didn't invent this religion. They bought into this stuff just like the rest of us did. Therefore, I think we'll eventually see the WT undergo changes involving a complete reinvention of their eschatology. It would be easier for the GB to implement those kinds of changes because it doesn't have to involve any admission of error. They could explain it away in their mind by saying that Jehovah allowed them to be mistaken for decades so that people could come to worship him and now Jehovah has seen it fit to provide his people with a clearer understanding of the truth, etc.

  I'm inclined to believe that the next 10 years will see minor tweaks and growing apathy among the rank and file while the realization that major changes are needed begins to sink in at headquarters. The GB will be forced to come to terms with the fact that all their eschatological predictions failed. When that realization finally sinks in, it's entirely possible that the GB will go about the task of finding out what went wrong. For diehard believers who spent their entire lives within this religion, the obvious answer to that question will be that Jehovah allowed the GB to be in error for whatever reason, but now Jehovah was ready to reveal some deeper truth...through them, no less.

  My basic point is this: I agree with your analysis, but I would suggest that the WT could shun mainstream reforms and still remain viable in the long-term.
• 

  drew sagan

  wholesale reinvention of their eschatological beliefs.

  I won't doubt that this is a possibility.
  
  I tend to think of it this way. The 1975 fiasco was 33 years ago. Add to that people who were babies all the way up to 10 years old or so were probably not affected, nor understood what happened at the time. This means that anybody in the organization under 40 has never experienced the fallout of a produced date.
  
  From what I see the WTS is currently nearing the end of what can be labeled the "post 1975 era". After the 75' fiasco the Watchtower adjusted a number of policies and practices and set in motion an organization structure that essential remain unchanged until the last few years. Almost every member of the governing body through the 70's, 80's, and even some of the 90's came from the 1970's and earlier. I don't believe any members were elected to the GB in the 1980's.
  
  So the current question is, what is the Watchtower going to do to transition out of this 'post 75' era? Because so many people are in the organization never have experienced major eschatological change, they may move in that direction sometime in the next 15 years or so. But I believe there are some major dangers that face the WTS in this regard.
  
  If the eschatological structure is changed to suggest that the end will occur within 30-40 years the Watchtower could suffer a terrible fallout after such things fail to pass. They are not as strong as they once were and neither are their believers. Notice how the Watchtower continues to harp on about how "bad" peoples attitudes are within the group. This is a more recent development which came through somewhat in the 1980's, stronger in the 90's, and is blaring in the 00's. The Watchtower has more members today that are willing to complain and get frustrated than ever before (and for good reason!). Promising the end within their lifetime is a hell of a lot more risky that promising it to those who survived the Rutherford years.
  
  Also, the WTS has made a number of moves that suggest they are sticking with their current model. Reprinting and studying the Revelation book come to my mind. They also have refined their generation teaching into a belief that simply can go on indefinitely.
  
  The general feeling that I get is that they recognize that reform is needed, but are unwilling to give up their beliefs in order to deal with it. This is why I think the future is dangerous for them. Either they move into some pretty serious reform, or they take the risk and put forward a new eschatological system. But one thing they cannot afford to do is slowly change the organization in fairly mundane ways over time while continuing to hold to beliefs that hinder their progress. I believe that such inaction moves them further and further towards a position of complete irrelevance.
• 

  Mickey mouse

  New recruits around here aren't even lasting out five years. The ones who stay in are increasingly those trapped in by family.

  If there is a reduction in members, they will just say "hey, the love of the greater number has cooled off" That makes the big A imminent!

  Mickey.
• 

  Bring_the_Light

  My home Congo looked extremely stressed. I was actually a little surprised that most everyone I knew was still there, but there were very notable losses. Most striking was there was ABSOLUTELY nobody new. Not a single local recruit. Some jaydub was imported from Iowa, he was the only face I didn't recognize.
  
  I guess I can't tell the difference from "normal" now that I've been away so long, but everyone looked pretty stressed which I interpreted to be related to the "we've lost ground and its embarrassing" sitch.
• 

  Quirky1

  I do agree with idea that they are continually loosing ground. Since my family and I first started attending 8 years ago I have yet to see any new faces besides the ones that are farmed out from other congos.

  The current members are fading away with age and the younger ones are not into it. There is not enough interest to keep the younger generation going unless they are tied to it by family and have no choice.

  Certain cliques in the congo has also pushed some of the farmed out members away to other congos, so they say. They may have seen the light and left for good who knows.

  Since the born in retention is only 37% their future depends on new members willing to join the religion or they will die out.
• 

  Gordy

  This has been one of the best threads I've read.

  The points raised and discussed have been thoughtful and well thought out. I will add my own viewpoint for what its worth.

  I was a JW from 1971 to 2001 when I disassociated. I still have a wife and two daughters still in. We have not spoken since 2001.

  The congregation I was in was always a strong one. It was recognised as being very "spiritual" that is it kept to the WT line. The original congregation split into two, because even after 1975 in grew. Both congregations shared the the same Kingdom Hall. Which eventually led us building a bigger new one which we could share. The North congregation was always the bigger one. It could reach 150 attendance for Public talk and Watchtower study. Even the School/Service meetings averaged 130-140. I was in the South congregation slightly smaller average for Public talk?WT study was about 130, with probably about 100 for other meetings. One of the book groups was usually held in my home and we had, 20-30 attending on average. In the early years I was there the Elders were older men, aged from 50 to 70's, all either born JWs or had been for 50 years.. As these died off in later years they were replaced by younger ones say 30 to 50. I became a Min Servant. When I last had contact with that congregation in 1999,it seemed still as strong as ever, as did the sister congregation.

  In the last few years say since 2001. Those two congregations seemed to have fallen apart. Number have dropped. My non-JW daughter who was still living with her mother, a couple of years ago went to a Public/WT study meeting of the North congregation, attendance at one time could hit 150, but she said there probably only about 30 there. My old congregation (South) was getting about 80-90 attendance. The number of publishers when I was there was 86. The book group I last heard only has 8 attending! I used to run two coaches to go to the District Convention, now there are none. Attendance at our DC was hitting 20,000 at one time, the last one I went to had 12,000.

  Over the years Elders have resigned, I heard because of "internal differences." Other congregation members are attending meetings at other local congregation even though it requires a fair journey to get to even the nearest one. Others have just stopped going. Other ex-JWs across the area have said similar things about their own ex-congregations. Congregations that you would have said at one time would be steadfast and strong for the "Truth" are just seemingly hanging on.

  Is this all a symptom of what has been mentioned on this thread?

  Are JWs suffering from "Armageddon Burnout" ? In 6 years time it will be 2014. A hundred years since the Watchtower claims Jesus took up kingly power in 1914. Another 4 years and it will a hundred years when Jesus is supposed to have chosen the Watchtower.

  Did they really think they would be here this long?

  Or are more JWs seeing through WT teachings and starting to think for themselves? There are so many factors involved. Including just life and living in this world we are in.

  There will always be a hardcore of followers, as you get in any religion, who will hang on nomatter what.

  But whatever it is that is happening to the Watchtower let all play a part in chipping away at it.

  Forgive me if I rambled on. I was doing this at work and kept getting interrupted

  But felt had to reply tosuch a good thread.
• 

  sir82

  When growth drastically slows down is when things will start to break, I think.

  This could happen soon, at least in the US.

  Virtually all of the growth in the US over the past 10 years is from immigration. JWs from Latin America are moving here, and immigrant populations fuel the growth from new baptisms. If the WT ever dared to print a split of "English-speaking" vs. "Non-English speaking" publisher numbers, I am virtually certain it would be devastating. The number of English-speaking JWs is not only very likely not growing, I'd venture to say it is dropping significantly.

  But for how much longer can the growth from immigration continue? Over 1/4 of the JWs in the US attend Spanish-language congregations. Latin American immigrants, legal and otherwise, are beginning to leave the US, because the mortgage crisis has put the kibosh on new home construction, where a huge number of them worked. There's no work here, so they're going home to their families.

  http://www.firesociety.com/forum/thread/26868/With-fewer-construction-jobs-to-go-around--some-Latino-immigrants-are-opting-to-leave-the-U.S./

  Without a steady pool of desperate 3rd-world immigrants, who have grown up to respect the Bible but are disenchanted with the Catholic church, the number of new recruits will shrivel.

  You can already see it in the monthly reports in the KM. In the last service year, the JW count rose by over 3% from the year before. This year, based on my rough informal estimates, the growth will be far less, probably around 1 to 1.5%.

  If the crisis continues as expected into next year, with full recovery years beyond that, you may well see negative numbers appearing in the "growth" column of the annual report.
• 

  WTWizard

  I have found the Washtowel message to be blatantly the opposite of Jesus' true message. Jesus wanted the people to think independently instead of blindly obeying orders. The Washtowel wants people to blindly obey orders instead of thinking independently.

  Eventually, people are going to think independently. It will happen when the Washtowel itself does something blatantly stupid. The oral sex issue sent a few walking out. The waste of paper distribution campaigns led to others leaving, as did the "valueless things" and the marriage advice in the washtowel last week. All it takes is for something to hit the person the wrong way, and there is another walkout. And often another S-77 form to write up. Hopefully, the organization will be ruined from the inside.

  Meanwhile, us apostates can keep new ones from joining. This is the prime way--this very forum is where one can find actual experience of many that have left without the hassle of setting up and maintaining a web site. And there are those who have gone through the process of setting up web sites, helping any interested person to research and get the real facts before joining. Hopefully, that will contribute to stagnant meeting attendance and pxxx poor field circus results, and discouragement.
• 

  M.J.

  :Over 1/4 of the JWs in the US attend Spanish-language congregations.
  
  In my area (and this is a fairly recent phenomenon), there are more who attend the Spanish DCs than there are who attend the English DCs. Someone from Washington State told me that their town went from 2 English congregations and no Spanish to 2 Spanish and 1 English.
• 

  CunningMan

  Dogpatch said:

  "My former Bethel overseer, Wheelock, jumped out of a window at Bethel, leaving his wife."

  Wow, there were people committing suicide at Bethel? I wonder how many people have done that over there. Of course, those are the stories that no one hears about.