Need your thoughts on the partaker numbers

by cultswatter 8 Replies latest watchtower beliefs

• 

  cultswatter

  Many time this forum has solved many mysteries because we can put our collective brains together and form a so called super computer.

  As you know I have been hashing the partaker numbers for over 1 year. Hashing and rehashing, trying to make sense of it all. I feel the partaker numbers are grossly underreported especially since 1980. Yet there are tell tale signs of the the published numbers as being authentic- a paradox .. Let me refer to the partaker numbers as the "curve".. This curve shows a marked increase in partakers just after 1969 with a peak at 1975 showing the naturally expected response to the end of world prediction for 1975. So this part of the curve from 1969 to 1975 and even as late as 1977 looks very legit. In other words, if the numbers were totally arbitrary the responce in the curve to the 1975 prediction would not have been there. So I think the WTS has reproduced the actual numbers as per pink slips for that time period (maybe?). Then things get weird. From about 1980 onward the curve flattens out which is not what you would expect.

  There was 1 million JWs in 1963 with rapid growth after that. A certain percentage of JWs will tend to think they have the heavenly calling so the increase in partakers should be proportional to the increase in great crowd. The curve does not reflect this increase and as we all know the WTS must have underreported the numbers. I jhave done a lot of graphing of several scenarios in excel with varied results - the general conclusion being that the partakers were underreported. I still don't understand how some parts of the curve seem legit.

  Maybe some of you could enlighten?
• 

  cultswatter

  Nod if you can hear me
• 

  BluesBrother

  so the increase in partakers should be proportional to the increase in great crowd.

  Not if all the new baptized ones are told to look forward to the New World, told that all the remnant have been gathered in with just the odd replacement chosen, told that anyone suddenly taking the emblems is viewed with deep suspicion .
• 

  hamsterbait

  On the reporting of figures, the WT does not know its A$$ from its elbow.

  WT 88 15/12 p12 reports that in 1935 32 795 attended with 27 006 partakers. Yet the

  WT 96 15/8 p31 gives 63 146 attending with 52 465 partakers.

  I recently did a breakdown which showed that taking into account the high rate of death among partakers (if the actual decline in figures is evened out) then around 58 446 have been new partakers AFTER 1935.

  Perhaps the higher figure given in 96 is to make the sudden rise in 1937,, from 24 850 to 35 172 seem less significant, in view of the fact that at that time they were still touting the idea that the heavenly door was largely closed from 1935. They cannot explain why with the smaller 1935 figure, more partook of the emblems in the years subsequent than before.

  The figures for partakers after 1970 go crazy, as they no longer fit the rather high mortality seen in the thirty odd previous years. there are many consecutive years where there is only an increase (14 in all).

  After 92 the decreases are in single or double figures, with most of the consecutive increases occurring then.

  Since the Borg has records of death for annointed, it is fair to assume they knew long ago that 1935 was not a cut off year, and they are cooking the books until somebody can find a clever answer.

  HB
• 

  cultswatter

  Hamsterbait

  Since the Borg has records of death for annointed

  Can you verify that?.
• 

  hamsterbait

  Yes -

  At every Kingdumb Hell throughout the land partakers are counted.

  Why do you think that each year for many many we see in the yearbook "Memorial Partakers"???

  Record cards in the congos show "other sheep" or "annointed".

  IF THEY CAN KEEP ACCURATE RECORDS OF CHILD MOLESTERS AND THE MONEY PAID OUT - THE PIONEERS HOURS ETC, don't tell me they have NO record of the partakers death.

  They actually demand that the branch be informed if a DF or DA dies.

  HB
• 

  White Dove

  I'm just trying to figure out why it's always been in the 8,000's my whole life. It was never 9,000 something. Always 8,000 something.
• 

  jwfacts

  I cannot comment on why it has been so stable. However, the number is very arbitary due to the people that count the number of partakers. I used to count how many partook, and then the elders would adjust the figure to get rid of any they felt could not be legitimate. We had one person, and older elder they thought was legitimate that they would report. One year they removed from the count an "insane" apostate, a teenage sister and a bible study. So the actual number of partakers is a lot more than the number of partakers reported to Bethel.
• 

  cultswatter

  You zee how zis supercomputer works

  The GB MUST know the annointed deaths per year! That is the vital piece of info that we need . The GB gets the following info:

  1. Annual partakers as per pink slips
  2. Annual partaker deaths

  From this the GB can derive the annual replacements (now called the additions) so they know exactly what's going on!!!. Lets say the replacements get excessive around 1980. Do you think the GB would want to limit the annual replacements???????? If they did the curve would go flat lined wouldn't it???