A gradual decline or sudden collapse for the WTS?

by DT 34 Replies latest jw friends

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  DT

  Many of us believe the days of the Watchower Society may be numbered. They are receiving an unprecedented amount of well deserved negative publicity. However, they are still experiencing modest growth. The WTS has proven to be resilient and resourceful and they have a powerful hold on most of their members. They try to hide disturbing news from their members and many are unimpressed even when we tell them about what is happening. The fact that so many of them are willing to overlook things like the UN involvement and the pedophilia issue is a powerful testimony to the power of the WTS.

  I'm not trying to be discouraging, but I believe it is unlikely that the WTS will slowly decline into oblivion. It has the resources to weather its current difficulties and many future troubles. It has perfected certain forms of mind control and is good at adapting to at least some kinds of changing circumstances.

  On the other hand, I believe it is a very intense and dynamic organisation that may be vulnerable to catastrophic collapse if it faces the right combination of challenges. They require a great deal of sacrifice and devotion from their members. If changing circumstances caused a certain threshold of members to direct their energies against their former masters, the changes could be sudden and intense.

  I think our current efforts are well worthwhile. Many are leaving and finding freedom. Many are having doubts that may grow in time. There are even many who have already decided to leave when the time is right, such as when their family decides to leave. However, I don't think that these things, by themselves, will cause the demise of the WTS, even over an extended period of time.

  I would like to know what others think. I would be happy to be wrong about my assessment of this situation. If the WTS suffers a catastrophic collapse, it may largely be a result of unexpected events beyond our control. Also, the WTS is a very complex system that may be vulnerabe to random changes, kind of like how the stock market or weather can change suddenly and unpredictably. We might not be able to predict or cause this kind of crises in the WTS, but we can prepare ourselves for this possibility. There may be a time when when our efforts will have a disproportionately strong effect. I invite your comments on what kind of events could cause that kind of crises and how we could make the best use of that situation.
  
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  yknot

  I think as long as there are sheep to be led fleeced, the WTS will remain.

  The information age might be the decline of wealthier/mobile nations but the illiterate and under-educated nations are ripe for the picking.

  The only true way for them to thrive as an organization is to follow the LDS and promote large families, education that leads to high paying or influencial jobs so many can make large donations and leave sizeable estates to the WTS, and mainstreaming.
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  journey-on

  I don't know if this type of speculation is helpful, but I do have some thoughts about this. I don't believe

  the WTS will be any more than a shell of itself within the next 25 years. I predict a surge of minimal growth

  up to 2014. When Armageddon fails to materialize, I predict a huge exodus. Some will be "tricked" into hanging

  on till 2034 (120 yrs. from 1914 using the Noah chronology). After that, if JWs are still spouting their basic "end of

  the world is near" crap, they will experience a pretty fast fall. The only thing that might save them is some savvy

  doctrinal back-tracking and a more socially active environment such as "Choir Groups", Youth-oriented activities,

  Fellowship Dinners, etc. That's my take.
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  chickpea

  i see merit thinking a slowing of growth with a trend toward decline as a just and deserved fate for the borg.....

  i think it is indicative of the trend to learn that evidently a substantial number of "publishers" fake their hours!... surely that is no way to increase the fold! and likely as more and more scandals and false prophecies come to the fore.... more defections and fewer conversions.....

  sure.... why not? slow and steady will work for me....... even tho a cataclysmic demise would be more enthralling!!
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  sspo

  The watchtower is here to stay unless the Gb will admit that their doctrines are wrong just like the Church of God when its leader, Armstrong died , they scrapped all their doctrines and started fresh in interpreting the bible. Even then a good number of its followers stayed faithful to its original doctrines.

  Still have and deal with many friends in the Borg and no matter what scandal the watchtower is involved in, they will always have an answer in excusing the organization and the GB.

  Not any different from all the other religions such as catholics with its bad history, 1 billion people continue to be part of it.

  Mormons are viewed as a cult, yet they continue to increase.

  You cannot shake people's faith, remember "apostate" are only a fraction in comparison to the ones that stay in.
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  Highlander

  If the bible students can still exist, then you can rest assured that the WT cult will live forever. The pragmatists will win, and allow this organzation to survive. It may shrink, or it may grow. Hell, it might even become a more mainstream religion. There is no doubt in my mind, it will always exist.
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  heathen

  Looks to me like they plan on staying with all the new building projects going on .I think they will be around for awhile yet . Outcasts of society need some where to go even if it's a book publishing corporation. They do offer friendship to people that can conform to their religion however it's as much how high up the hierarchy you are as to how much you have to toe the line.
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  integ

  This is definitely a bit of wishful thinking, but...I could possibly foresee the numbers continuing to grow in the poorer countries, but I could also foresee numbers dropping drastically in the more "civilized" areas such as Britain, Canada, United States, Europe, etc., who have access to the internet, and other info.

  I predict that the WTS numbers will drop in direct proportion to the growth of the internet.

  The formula for sucess is:

  Internet Growth = Watchtower Decline

  -Integ.
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  Jourles

  However, they are still experiencing modest growth.

  Without anything to back my assertion up, I would still venture a guess and say that over 80-85% of that growth is internally related. In other words, minors of jw parents. I mean, c'mon, how many actually get baptized from being pulled in through field service? Whenever people on this board report back from assemblies, most mention that the majority of those getting baptized are young people. Yeah, right. Young people who have no ties to the jws are coming into the org on their own.

  This is the growth we are seeing right now. And as time goes on and the more families become reliant on the internet for everyday activities, these pre-baptized jw youth will start researching things on their own. Family and peer pressure to get baptized will not phase them as much. Because once they see they can still keep their friends and family withoutgetting dunked, why bother? Why commit? The wts has to see this. If I were them, I would come up with a new doctrine explicitly tying baptism with salvation - even if you die before armageddon. Forget this wishy-washy "jehovah is the judge" crap. Because the way most are starting to see it, if they feel armageddon won't come within their lifetime, what is the incentive to commit themselves to the wts? THERE IS NO INCENTIVE. Hence, they need to change this doctrine pronto to keep the numbers up and to keep the flock scared of losing their salvation even if their sins get washed away at death.
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  integ

  Jourles, your post made me laugh and made total sense at the same time.

  "forget this wishy-washy jehovah is the judge crap".........................................that is freakin funny. Thanks.