125,725 JW Publishers are MISSING !!!

Amazing

Blueblades posted the 2003 Service Year Report. The Watchtower Society makes it appear that they grew 2.2% (which is lower than some of their earlier percentages) ... but the way they present the data, does not reveal the truth. [Note: The chart below is the smallest I could get it ... sorry for the inconvenience. It is also awkward to scroll around ... so you may want to copy and paste onto your word processor to get a closer look at the real growth.]

Of the average Publishers, the Watchtower Society fails to account for those who died, were DF/DA or simply left the organization. When we take away those numbers, their growth is closer to 1%. How do we arrive at that number? Easy: The total baptized in 2003 is 258,845 (which is lower for 2003) then the JWs should be larger by that amount, less the death rate ... so they should be about 204,000 more in average Publishers. Here is a way to look at it: 6,184,046 avg. less 2.2% means that 2002 must have been 6,050,926 (1.022 x 6,050,926 = 6,184,046).

Where are the 125,725? The actual increase is 133,120 ( 6,184,046 less 6,050,926 ) ... yet, 258,845 were baptized. Where are the other 125,725 JW Publishers? Since the Watchtower Society says its old and infirm are also active Publishers, putting in at least 15 minutes per month ... so as these die, they would affect the reduction in average Publishers. (The truth is many if not most of these are no longer active when they die, and so are not really part of the total count ... which means that I should not use their number ... but for conservatism, that is to be safe in my assessments, I will count them:

The death rate has been fairly stable at 0.9% per 1,000 for a long time ... take 6,050,926 less 0.9% (0.009) death of active JWs in 2003 ... would result in 54,458 JWs departing this life. Subtract this from the 125,725 and you still have 71,267 who must have been DF/DA or simply left the organization. This is just for one year ...

So of the 258,845 baptized, a whopping 27.5% leave the religion. If you go back through to the 1950s, using the Watchtower's own Yearbooks, you can calculate this each year, subtracting the death rate ... and you will see that there are now at least 2,000,000 former BAPTIZED JWs ... this does not count the many millions who were raised in or around the religion, or studied, or showed interest over the last 50 years ... if you count them in, then the total leaving the religion is more likely 4 million to 5 million former associates or baptized members of the JWs.

So again where have they all gone? Either to heaven, hell, the grave, or to JWD and other fine boards ... or simply moved on into a free life full of opportunity.

Here is the comparison chart:

JW DATA COMPARISON

YEAR 2003

YEAR 2002

UP / DOWN

% DIFF.

Branches of Jehovah's Witnesses:

109

not stated

Number of Lands Reporting:

235

234

UP

1.000%

Total Congregations:

95,919

94,600

UP

1.010%

Worldwide Memorial Attendance:

16,097,622

15,597,746

UP

1.032%

Memorial Partakers Worldwide:

8,565

8,760

DOWN

0.022%

Peak of Publishers in Kingdom Service:

6,429,351

6,304,645

UP

1.020%

Average Publishers Preaching Each Month:

6,184,046

est 6,050,926

UP

2.200%

Percentage of Increase Over 2002:

2.2

n/a

Total Number Baptized:

258,845

265,469

DOWN

0.025%

Average Pioneer Publishers Each Month:

825,125

not available

Total Hours Spent in Field:

1,234,796,477

1,202,381,302

UP

1.027%

Average Home Bible Studies Each Month:

5,726,509

5,309,289

UP

1.080%

Sentinel

..............they were seen sneaking out the back door.

Nosferatu

There's an increase in publishers, but a decrease in baptisms. The thing is you don't have to be baptized to be a publisher. The WTS is no doubt worried about the decrease in baptisms.

I wouldn't doubt if there's many like me who never made it past unbaptized publisher. Many of these publishers are no doubt children and are being raised with a piece of technology called the internet. Eventually we'll end up seeing a drop off in publishers if the baptisms continue going down.

Gadget

The average publishers is up by 2.2%, but the number of hours spent in field ministry and the number of bible studies is only up by 1.027% and 1.080%. Does this mean that each jw is doing less on the ministry?

detective

That's one mighty big milk carton!

thanks for the analysis! Very intriguing!

La Capra

Isn't math fun Jim? I used to do this same calculation as a kid, and just figured the difference was attributable to attrition (firings, quittings and death). I asked a librarian for help in finding the international mortality rate. She looked at me like I was nuts, and helped me look through an almanac. But I did always feel it was necessary to double check the arithmetic of the Bethel Boys. I added a two extra rows, with my numbers, in my tables: deaths and DF/DA. I didn't think I was cynical at all. I figured congregants could tell you, at the drop of a hat, how many of each had occurred in their congregation in a given year, but probably not the average and peak publishers....It was relevant data, so
I added it. I like a tidy balance sheet. Those missing bodies bothered me too. Shoshana P.S. If you use their death rate (from the drop in partakers), then only about 1000 of their numbers died. These books are cooked. I'm shocked!!!

Waymores Ghost

Good stuff, Amazing

Large companies (insert WT corp.) often cook their books to boost or maintain their perceived value to stockholders (insert J-dubs) and potential investors (insert householder). Same shit, different pile.

Wg

xjw_b12

La Capra said:

These books are cooked. I'm shocked!!!

I'm not. Nothing surprises me about those crooks.

ScoobySnax

Why do all these "Missing Numbers" worry you so much? Surely if you have done your maths correct, you should see where they've gone. Inactive or Disfellowshipped..

Make your minds up, have they cooked the books, are an extrordinary amout leaving the JW faith, have they died, are many on JWD putting in crooked service reports or a combo of the previous....OR did it really show an increase worldwide? I reckon at the end of the day, an increase was seen.

No? let me look closer..........LOL

Stephanus

Scoob, you've been MIA for 10 years - report immediately to your nearest KH to register for the field service draft! LOL

125,725 JW Publishers are MISSING !!!

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