OK, here are the Faithful Slave Class Calculations, incorporating their Substitues and the Substitutes' Substitutes. A bit dull and heavy (hello, Larsguy! .......), but based on population statistics and mathematics.
In 1935, there were 52,465 proessing to be of the Remnant. This number 5 years later dropped to 27,711. Not so strange, considering the Great Crowd had risen and caused many to change sides. In 1950, the number had sunk to 22,723. I would suspect an over-mortality due to the War, so calculations are difficult. OK, let us therefore be gentle and nice and liberal, and start off with that very year, 1950, and the 22,723 professing ones.
How old were they? Who knows? Let us continue our gentle touch and suppose they were rather young, based on the present Governing Body members, professing Remnant members some of us know, and not stretching the age limit any further than to the fact they had had to have been there in 1935, when the general call ended (although Russell thought the general call ended back in 1881), so let us assume they as a group were born 1910-1915 onwards. To make it simple, then, the oldest ones were in 1950 some 40 years. Wrong of course, but again, just to make it simple.
This would mean, based on Western nations' death rates, a death rate of 2 % annually. So, 22,723 x 2 % x 50 years would mean all of them had died by now. OK, so because we have 8,661 professing Remnant members in 2000, it means they are all Substitutes, in other words that (8,661 / 22,723) 38 % of the 1950 Remnant have since proved apostates or faithless and not faithful, and have left. They say rebellion against them is equal to rebellion towards God, but have rebelled themselves.
Not so bad figures. But, it gets worse: In 1960, there were 13,911 professing to be of the Remnant. That means, from 1950 there had been an annual loss of 3.8 %. If that death rate had continued, we should by now have a number of 7,233 below zero, as 21,144 would have died since 1960. So 7,233 plus 8,661 make up 15,894 Substitutes, or 114 % of the 1960 number. Meaning, that not only has the majority of the Remnant been faithless, but the majority of the Substitutes have themselves have had to be substitued because of faithlessness.
OK, we move on to 1970, when there were 10,526. Annual loss 2.4 %, meaning that with such a rate continued, we should today have 2,948. Therefore, 5,713 of today's professing Remnant are Substitues based on what has happened since 1970, or 54 % of the 1970 number. More than half of the 1970 Remnant has left.
Then, strange numbers began occuring, as the 1980 number is 9,564 and the 1990 number is 8,869 and finally year 2000 with 8,661. The annual loss in the 50s was 3.8 %, in the 60s 2.4 %, then in the 70s only 0.9 %, in the 80s the impossible 0.7 % and in the 90s the even more impossible 0.2 %.
But what does that mean? It means that such a death rate is impossible, and that there therefore is a vast number of Substitutes coming in. And what does that again mean? That the Remnant is leaving, defecting, becoming faithless towards the same rules and regulations and legalism which they demand that the Great Crowd has to follow, and that they are so doing (defecting)in huge numbers. If therefore, these numbers are to be taken seriously, 20 % of the 1980 remnant have since left us, and that is so even with the impossible death rate stated. Had the 1970s death rate continued, it would mean that 50 % of the 1970 remnant have since turned faithless.
Pfui! Tiresome. Heavy. But, now it has been done. So here you are, the Ultimate Calculations at your service.
The Faithful? Slave Class Substitutes Calculations
by TheOldHippie 14 Replies latest watchtower beliefs
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TheOldHippie
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dungbeetle
<That means, from 1950 there had been an annual loss of 3.8 %. If that death rate had continued, we should by now have a number of
7,233 below zero,
as 21,144 would have died since 1960>
harharhar, bwahahaha, heeheee
ytou people crack me up. Get your head together with nathan Natas, you two sound like you would get along great together.
Hey, Old Hippe, jst2laws is looking for you,, can you email him please if you haven't already.
and hugs to ya dear.
BEFORE YOU TRY AND REMOVE THE STICK FROM MY ARSE, REMOVE THE TELEPHONE POLE FROM YOUR OWN ARSE.
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Earnest
Interesting figures, OldHippy. And I am not much of a mathematician myself but I think they are fundamentally flawed.
You argue that as there were 22,723 "professing Remnant members" in 1950, and that there has been a death rate of 2 % annually, this would mean all of them had died by now. You then go on to parody this figure with substitutes and their substitutes.
I agree with you that the difference in the figures between 1935 and 1940 can be attributed to the "new light" on the Great Crowd which caused many to change sides. But if we ignore that blip then the decrease has been in line with "Western nations' death rates, a death rate of 2 % annually".
I think your figures are flawed because you base the 2% each year on the total of "professing Remnant members" in 1950. In actual fact, you should base the 2% on the decreased number each year. So, as an example, consider the years 1940 - 1950:Year.............Remnant – 2% of previous year...........2%
1940...........................27711..............................554
1941...........................27157..............................543
1942...........................26614..............................532
1943...........................26082..............................522
1944...........................25560..............................511
1945...........................25049..............................501
1946...........................24548..............................491
1947...........................24057..............................481
1948...........................23576..............................472
1949...........................23104..............................462
1950...........................22642In 1950 the actual total of "professing Remnant members" was 22723 which is not far out.
In 1960, there were 13,911 professing to be of the Remnant.
If you continue with the annual decrease (see table below) you will see that in 1960 there should be 18,566 "professing Remnant members".OK, we move on to 1970, when there were 10,526.
Statistically, there should be 15,159.1980 number is 9,564
Statistically: 12,395.1990 number is 8,869
Statistically: 10,127.year 2000 with 8,661.
Statistically: 8,274.My guess is that in the sixties, seventies and eighties there are fewer "professing Remnant members" than statistics would suggest because their death rate was greater than 2% due to their age.
I include the entire chart from 1950 onwards for the perusal of any budding mathematicians among us.
Year.............Remnant – 2% of previous year...........2%
1950...........................22723..............................454
1951...........................22269..............................445
1952...........................21824..............................436
1953...........................21388..............................428
1954...........................20960..............................419
1955...........................20541..............................411
1956...........................20130..............................403
1957...........................19727..............................395
1958...........................19332..............................387
1959...........................18945..............................379
1960...........................18566..............................371
1961...........................18195..............................364
1962...........................17831..............................357
1963...........................17474..............................349
1964...........................17125..............................343
1965...........................16782..............................336
1966...........................16446..............................329
1967...........................16117..............................322
1968...........................15795..............................316
1969...........................15479..............................310
1970...........................15169..............................303
1971...........................14866..............................297
1972...........................14569..............................291
1973...........................14278..............................286
1974...........................13992..............................280
1975...........................13712..............................274
1976...........................13438..............................269
1977...........................13169..............................263
1978...........................12906..............................258
1979...........................12648..............................253
1980...........................12395..............................248
1981...........................12147..............................243
1982...........................11904..............................238
1983...........................11666..............................233
1984...........................11433..............................229
1985...........................11204..............................224
1986...........................10980..............................220
1987...........................10760..............................215
1988...........................10545..............................211
1989...........................10334..............................207
1990...........................10127..............................203
1991............................9924..............................198
1992............................9726..............................195
1993............................9531..............................191
1994............................9340..............................187
1995............................9153..............................183
1996............................8970..............................179
1997............................8791..............................176
1998............................8615..............................172
1999............................8443..............................169
2000............................8274..............................165
2001............................8109..............................162
2002............................7947Earnest
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TheOldHippie
Interesting, Earnest, but I must disagree with you when you state that: "In actual fact, you should base the 2% on the decreased number each year."
Why? Because it is the 1950 number which is the basis, and who die. It is the sum total who die, 2 % annually. In an average population, 1 % die annually, but we have here said 2 % because obviously, no children or teenagers are in the group. You are correct in saying that one must calculate 2 % of the number each year, BUT THAT IS CORRECT ONLY IN AN ORDINARY POPULATION. Here, we have a population which is supposed not to grow, not to have any new members, apart from substitutes. Do you get what I mean? This is a population where there are no newcomers, where the 1950 number is a set one, and which can only decrease. Therefore, since nobody dies twice, only once, you must all the time use the 1950 number as the basis. This is what makes these calculations so special, or different, when compared to ordinary calculations.
Who am I saying this? One who is a population statistician, and therefore humbly thinks he knows a bit about this. I might be wrong, don't get me wrong, but I cannot understand it differently than here stated. -
simwitness
Dumb question:
As the age of the population sample increases, wouldn't the mortality rate for that sample also increase?
Surely it would not stay steady.
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Liberty
Great Post OldHippie,
Not heavy at all but very interesting. It doesn't matter if your calculations are completely accurate because they still point out the idiocy of the JW belief in the literal 144,000 number. Logic and common sense support your conclusions that the whole thing is a joke because Ol'Jehover must choose really rotten people to the "Heavenly Calling" since such a large majority of these become unfaithful and must be replaced all the time.
The JW's 144,000 thing has always been one of the stupidist among many crackpot ideas because it made no sense that all the Christians for 2000 years, including those there at the beginning and who suffered the most, haven't added up to filling this number a long time ago. That there still remains such a large number of "anointed" today belies the reality of this goofy manmade idea. Yet another reason the whole Watchtower Society is full of you know what. Either that or the all knowing Jehover sure makes a lot of bad choices when nominating Princes to rule with Christ. With a CEO like this Paradise could be a real frightening place cause who knows what kind of dumb mistakes He could make after failing so miserably at reading hearts for His right hand guys. What a joke!
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RunningMan
This has been a fairly hot topic lately, so I will repost my actuarial calculation for the remnant: http://www.jehovahs-witness.com/forum/thread.asp?id=15981&site=3
I assumed that the minimum age of annointed was 30 in 1935 (this was Jesus' age when he was baptized, and a not unreasonable minimum age for being chosen as a king in heaven.)
I also used actuarial tables, since the mortality rate will vary with age.
The bottom line of all of this, is that, if the Society's goofy doctrine is true, about 85% of all annointed are fake.
Here's another interesting point. In three years, I run out of actuarial tables. I can't find one for people over 100 years of age. So, at that point, we can say that they are virtually all fake.
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Earnest
OldHippie,
I quite frankly admit I have not studied mathematics or statistics, but my commonsense tells me that it cannot be correct to say that the number dying each year is the same (2% of the 1950 remnant) in a population which has no newcomers. In such a population where you have no infant mortality I would expect the death rate to be less than the national rate until the average age hits 60 when I would expect it to increase gradually each year.
It makes far more sense to me to use actuarial tables as RunningMan has done. But I think his minimum age of 30 in 1935 is probably a bit high. If you consider that there were 18000 JWs in 1919 and 52000 in 1935 that is a huge increase. As many of the older generation were killed in World War I there is a probability that most of these came from the post-war generation who were disillusioned by the Depression. So I would suggest a minimum age of 15 although the average age would more likely be about 25.
If we apply the actuarial mortality rates in the United States ( http://www.demog.berkeley.edu/wilmoth/mortality/states.html) the figures remain quite close to published numbers until the 1990s when the death rate increases dramatically due to advanced age.
This leaves us with a number of possible conclusions:
(a) the whole doctrine is a fraud;
(b) the doctrine of two classes is scriptural but there never has been a "cut-off date" and the number of the heavenly class (144000) is symbolic;
(c) the WT doctrine is correct and the remnant are living beyond their actuarial lifespans due to healthy minds and bodies;
(d) although the remnant were apparently faithful until the 1980s when they were in full accord with their predicted life expectancy, since then at least half of them have been replaced as they would otherwise be statistically dead.Earnest
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TheOldHippie
I still stick to my point, as this is a "closed population" where no supposed newcomers are to enter except for those replacing the ones turning faithless, and then they supposedly must be old, too, when entering. But OK, the point, no matter what calculations you use, is that the figures were not so bad till the 70s or so, but that since then, impossible rates have occured. The rates will vary, as one asked here, but we have dealt with decade averages etc. They grew, as they would have been expected to, but then suddenly dwindled. There are three explanations:
1. A circuit overseer some years ago stated it "seems as if Jehovah is prolonging the life of each member of the Remnant". Well, I could have bought that at the time, but since then, Franz and Gangas and Booth and Swingle and Klein have all died, leaving us with only Henschel, Schroeder, Barber, Barr and Sydlik as the old ones, Jaracz as half-way so, and then the 5 newcomers.
2. The majority of the Remnant is constantly turning apostate and has to be replaced all the time.
3. There are only 1,000 or so "real" Remnant members left, the rest are fakes.
Clearly, point 3 is the correct one. If one then not chooses to let go of the whole remnant idea. Stafford has some very good comments on this in his book, I'll try to find them and bring them.
