Population growth and demographics

by dropoffyourkeylee 5 Replies latest watchtower beliefs

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  dropoffyourkeylee

  Some recent news articles stated that Japan's low birth rates are related to their population decline, and gave a link to the following article which I find interesting.

  https://www.thoughtco.com/age-sex-pyramids-and-population-pyramids-1435272

  The age-sex pyramid graph is enlightening. It makes me wonder what the age-sex pyramid for JWs looks like and how it compares to the population as a whole. I would guess that the U S JW population is shifted toward older ages, and would end up looking like Japan's population graph as shown below

  

  
  
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  slimboyfat

  I think shepherdless posted some graphs for the age profile of JWs in Australia and New Zealand. Also diachronic analyses that show the average age of JWs is increasing rapidly.
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  shepherdless

  Someone rang?

  Here is the link to the thread sbf mentioned. It is actually Australian Census data only; no NZ data included.

  https://www.jehovahs-witness.com/topic/5260866569109504/jw-decline-additional-data-from-aust-2016-census

  Here is the equivalent graph I prepared, for JWs in Australia, based on census data. More detail in the above thread.

  

  Like Japan, it is top heavy (ie has too many old people), which indicates population decline in the future. Unlike Japan (or any other country that I know of), the tree is leaning over considerably; there are significantly more women than men.

  By generational descriptions, baby boomer women are the biggest group, and the next biggest group are gen-x women. If you look back at the thread, you will see that there aren't that many women currently in the Borg that are below 40, which will inevitably reduce the numbers born into the Borg in the future. The thread also shows this is a relatively recent phenomenon that has crept into JW demographics. Further, I explain that the data matches the limited data from the US Pew report, which suggests a similar scenario is playing out in USA, and probably most Western countries.
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  slimboyfat

  Thanks shepherdess. I don’t know if I made the comment before, but obviously the Australian JW population graph would be more meaningful if it could be compared side by side with a graph for the Australian population as a whole. Are JWs aging more rapidly than the general population? I suspect so, but it would be interesting to see it visually.
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  cookiemaster

  I know this isn't much in the way to statistical evidence but for some anecdotal reference, I'm in Romania in a congregation that used to have 60+ members in the late 90s early 2000s and now it has 35 and I'm the only male under 30. For females, there are two children and two teenagers. The only new baptisms have been from a 60+ lady and a middle aged woman who has cancer. They are keeping this congregation alive with imports from other congregations, but even those are just temporary middle aged pioneers. They haven't recruited someone young in forever.
  
  You know what the funniest thing is? I'm supposed to be the great hope of the congregation for future male leadership and I'm completely inactive. This drives them insane.The elders (now 60+) and CO are all frantically asking me to get more involved and I don't even bother giving answers on watchtower study. I literally just sit there and do nothing and it drives them crazy because they know there will be no male to take their place and lead the congregation. None of the JW kids I grew up with are still in. I just don't see them having much of a future IMO.
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  dropoffyourkeylee

  Thanks Sheperdless and SBF, I would say that the graph for Australia is similar to what I would expect from the US, from my own observation. Lots of older women, fewer older men, even fewer young people of either sex. Not a promising future for the WT.