Estimating future growth or decline of Watchtower (page 3)

JAHovers toilet cleaner

Marginal growth if any.

All internal growth (born-ins).

Highest turnover rate of any religion.

I think the WT cult has many years left. After all it is a CULT.

Once the AUS commission starts forcing WT to pay out money and the future ones in other countries do the same, It will be impossible to hide the FACT that the donations to the WWW that JWs have been making for their entire lives are paying for Watchtower crime...

Then, add in awakened JWs watching the ARC video archives after seeing a 'satanic' media report that turned out to be 100% true.

When that is clearly evident, the exodus will be unstoppable.

How WT hides this much longer is the bigger mystery.

slimboyfat

shepherdless firstly are you already aware that there have been two academic articles that discuss precisely the point about JWs' prospects for future growth? In the 1990s Rodney Stark wrote an article about why JWs "grow so fast" compared with other churches and he projected JW figures for the next 100 years or so on the basis of either 4% or 2% annual growth, producing a range of 27 million to 194 million by 2090. Both of those look very optimistic now.

http://www.oocities.org/rogueactivex/JWGrow-O.pdf

Then in James Beckford's festschrift the secularisation theorist David Voas wrote a really interesting article arguing that JWs may suffer a dramatic decline in membership in the near to mid term. He argued that once decline begins to set in within a sectarian movement it tends to proceed rapidly, likening it to declines in fish stocks which tend to suffer collapses in numbers rather than gentle declines. I made a thread about it at the time.

http://www.jehovahs-witness.com/topic/172862/british-sociologist-predicts-possible-collapse-jehovahs-witness-numbers?page=1

I think you are absolutely correct to focus on the age profile of adherents as an indicator of decline. Increasing age of membership is a well studied phenomenon in the UK in relation to declining churches such as Methodists, Anglicans and Presbyterians. Peter Brierley has collected data on church attendance, including age profiles and lots of other details for decades.

https://www.ministrytoday.org.uk/magazine/issues/43/352/

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Pulling-Out-The-Nosedive-Contemporary/dp/1853211680

David Voas, Steve Bruce and others have argued that secularisation proceeds as each succeeding generation rejects the faith of their parents. I reckon this is true for JWs as for other groups, they are just a little behind the curve. David Voas explains this sort of cohort analysis and what it means for church decline in this video.

http://youtu.be/YtAR_OGzlcg

It's been years since I attended meetings now so I can't give accurate local information. I can only say that from talking to people who still attend they remark on the total lack of young people. As far as I know there are only 2 teenagers in the congregation, no children, two couples under 40, a few single sisters under 40, and the rest over 40, with probably about half aged 57 or over.

Ignoranceisbliss

Do we couldn't all attendees ? Babies, toddlers, etc? Or only pubs?

pepperheart

i would say decline in both people AND money and now that they are having to sell the family silver off brooklyn and central london it will be very nice to see the borg slowly crumbling away

DATA-DOG

It's hard to imagine people getting dumber and the numbers of JWs increasing as the study SBF mentioned suggests. Sometimes hard numbers look great on paper, but they cannot predict chaos and all the minutiae. Seriously, who could have predicted the ARC or the Conti case, or the current Charity investigations?

DD

Mephis

Pew Survey covers the aging in the US. Pew have issues with sample size for JWs, but median age seems to be heading north of 50 there. ( http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/chapter-3-demographic-profiles-of-religious-groups/ )

I'd suspect that holds true for most industrialised countries as part of a more population trend, compounded by the JWs inability to retain born-ins.

Dunedain

Honestly, the WTS has been in the decline phase, for a little over 20 years now. Like any decline, that is not a mass exodus, it starts out slow, but eventually becomes a "domino" effect of a gradually increasing , and much larger decline.

The ignorant, and back-firing, approach that the BORG implemented in the early 90's to the early 2000's, of a hard-lined, gestappo, high-controlling pressure on their OWN youths, DECIMATED their population. The eay to late 90's were RAMPANT with disfellowshippings of born in teenagers, and early 20 somethings, that the BORG has never recovered from it. Many of us here on this forum are "casualties" of the WTS's heavy handed, very strict pressure put upon their young ones, and causing them to leave, from either outright DF'ing, fading, or HATING the hypocritical acts of "slash and burning" head tripping Elders.

This was the start of the decline, and its grown exponentionally. Then once the INTERNET further PROVED and EXPOSED the failed prophecies, false writing, hypocritical acts, and evil of the BORG, iyt has now grown to a MAJOR collapse and fade of its CORE members.

You use to hear from those that were DF'd, that " I still believe its the truth, but I cant do it, or I got kicked out". Now, after the exposure of the internet, those that are kicked out, research the "roots" of the BORG, and realize its a bunch of HOGWASH.

When I use to run into old JW friend from my youth, who are out like me, we would talk about how its still the truth, but this and that. NOW, when you see someone who is out, we all realize how we know its a bunch of BULLSHIT. We compare "notes", we exchange websites, and we share info, from the child abuse scandals, to the horseshit, overlapping generation.

The domino effect is growing rapidly, and the dominos are falling quicker, and harder than ever before. The dominos have now been falling for over 20 years, and they are building up speed, strength, and are now reaching the very foundations of the BORG.

The WTS is on very shaky ground. The once "strong pillars" that held it up, are actually faultering now, and the higher ups, on top, are SHAKING IN THEIR SUITS. The GB's and "powers that be", are acting desperate, and irrational in their actions.They have EMBRACED the internet, that they once "demonized", and it is further adding to their downfall. They are embracing the "looks", and actions of main stream religions now, where in the past they use to denounce them. We find JW's singing and dancing, like old school evangelical religions. They have adopted worldly media to "blend" in better. They are trying to use "worldly" accolades, and devices to attract more youth.

AND THEY ARE FAILING MISERABLY. THEY STINK OF DESPERATION. THEY ARE FOLDING LIKE A HOUSE OF CARDS.

JWdaughter

I think the jig is up. The increase is barely keeping up with population growth. Many churches would be happy with that. . .BUT they are clearly aging out and as the older generations pass away, their kids will give up all pretensions of following the wtbts leaders. I think attrition is going to sock it to them, and soon. The wtbts may or may not have money(or maybe they took out loans against all the rich property after donations dropped off long ago and the money jig is really up too) but I think they have full awareness that they are not getting more converts that aren't dragged in by family. The people numbers are dropping and the people they got are mostly broke, save for elderly. That cash cow will soon be gone. Then what? I know a JW being appt as an elder in a hall with just a few years in org. No other qualified men. Only competition is a teenager. He knows nothing, parrots his wife and is clearly involved just for her.probably too sweet to be an elder.it will break his heart.

Attrition will get 'em.

Coded Logic