Official earthquake decrease in rate and strength.

by nicolaou 6 Replies latest jw friends

• 

  nicolaou

  This is the main link for all things earthquake:- http://earthquake.usgs.gov/

  The f.a.q page is very interesting. Below is a straight 'cut & paste' [with emphasis added] which may go some way in explaining the WT's reluctance to focus on this particular aspect of the 'sign'.

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  Q: Why are we having so many earthquakes? Has earthquake activity been increasing?

  A: Although it may seem that we are having more earthquakes, earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or greater have remained fairly constant throughout this century and, according to our records, have actually seemed to decrease in recent years. A partial explanation may lie in the fact that in the last twenty years, we have definitely had an increase in the number of earthquakes we have been able to locate each year. This is because of the tremendous increase in the number of seismograph stations in the world and the many improvements in global communications. In 1931, there were about 350 stations operating in the world; today, there are more that 4,000 stations and the data now comes in rapidly from these stations by telex, computer and satellite. This increase in the number of stations and the more timely receipt of data has allowed us and other seismological centers to locate many small earthquakes which were undetected in earlier years, and we are able to locate earthquakes more rapidly. The NEIC now locates about 12,000 to 14,000 earthquakes each year or approximately 35 per day. Also, because of the improvements in communications and the increased interest in natural disasters, the public now learns about more earthquakes. According to long-term records (since about 1900), we expect about 18 major earthquakes (7.0 - 7.9) and one great earthquake (8.0 or above) in any given year. However, let's take a look at what has happened in the past 32 years, from 1969 through 2001, so far. Our records show that 1992, and 1995-1997 were the only years that we have reached or exceeded the long-term average number of major earthquakes since 1971. In 1970 and in 1971 we had 20 and 19 major earthquakes, respectively, but in other years the total was in many cases well below the 18 per year which we may expect based on the long-term average.

  See NEIC's Earthquake Statistics webpage [ http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/eqlists/eqstats.html ] for the tables of earthquake counts by magnitude and year.

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  Nic'

  http://www.do-not-call.org
• 

  ISP

  Even the earthquakes are being 'sifted'......

  ISP
• 

  dmouse

  Yeah, the latest AWAKE! (March 22, 2002) actually admits this is the case. Another example of information on the Net catching them out.

  So after a century of saying that the sign has been an increase in earthquakes they now say that the sign is being fulfilled just because there ARE earthquakes. The emphasis seems now to be on the suffering caused by earthquakes rather than a numerical increase - which cannot be supported in any way, shape or form. It's made it difficult to understand, I mean, are they really saying that people suffered less in the past when they were victims of an earthquake?

  Actually it's very simple. The so called 'signs' were never meant to herald the end, Jesus said that these things would happen but they were NOT a sign of the end. Even if they were the JW religion happened to proclaim that the signs were being fulfilled at the exact moment in history when the effects of earthquakes, famine and disease DECREASED dramatically - evidence for which is the massive population explosion and the fact that we live far longer than any generation in history.
• 

  fodeja

  Wow, I had a discussion with a JW just a couple of months ago about that subject. It went like this, the usual discussion pattern when JWs try to defend what no sane person could defend:

  1) Mr. Dub claims that there has been a great increase in frequency of earthquakes, as "those studying the field" know.

  2) I'm very skeptical and ask him to provide references.

  3) Mr. Dub says that the Net is full of information, and he doesn't think he should have to do "my" research (talk about shifting the burden of evidence, huh?).

  4) I dig out some stuff from earthquake centers, including the FAQ mentioned by nic. I find absolutely no data to support the idea that earthquakes are increasing. Nothing at all. To make sure, I ask the experts in the geophysics department right here at the university -- they tell me that it's hard to speak of any long-term trends in earthquake activity, let alone an "unprecedented increase".

  5) Dub answers that he happens to know this one guy who's working in construction of US government buildings. That unnamed person with his unknown credentials (probably an associate degree in bricklaying), whose authority apparently overrules all scientists working in earthquake research, reportedly claims that the US government is spending more money on making buildings earthquake-proof these days. Now if that isn't a smoking gun!

  6) I'm stunned.

  7) Even Mr. Dub seems to realise that this "evidence" is so weak, it wouldn't be enough to write an X-Files episode or sentence someone to death in Texas, so he proceeds to assure me that the unchanging wisdom of the bible should be our authority, not "secular" research. Actually all this isn't so important, although he's still right and I'm still wrong.

  8) I drop the discussion and go out to have a couple of beers. After all, even when I'm drunk like sixteen Swedish sailors, I still seem to have a better connection to reality than Mr. Dub.

  I wonder how this clown would argue today?

  f.
• 

  dmouse

  I just had another look at the AWAKE! article and they actually quote from the website you have brought our attention to here Nicolaou, and credit the U.S. National Earthquake Information Center.

  They actually use the term 'fairly constant' from it. The article goes on to link the distress caused by earthquakes to people's selfishness - they actually say that distress caused by earthquakes is mainly man's fault! The fulfilment of prophecy then is linked to Timothy's prophecy about what people will be like in the last days - not an increase in earthquakes at all!!!

  I wonder if the old-timers will even notice this new light.
• 

  nicolaou

  Well spotted dmouse,

  I certainly wasn't aware of the Awake article quoting from N.E.I.C (though this is probably due to the fact that I don't waste my time reading Awake anymore.)

  Sorry to go off-topic but I remembered something that dmouse might enjoy.

  Years ago, early 80's, I was sitting in the Bowes Road Assembly Hall during our Circuit Assembly.
  The speaker flipped the cover sheet over on his notice board to reveal the following;

  P&DM

  
  We were asked what this phrase meant. It was 'Preaching and Disciple Making' of course.

  So why was there a noticeable section of the audience up on the balcony, all 'youths' including myself, dissolving into barely suppressed laughter?

  Well we knew what P&DM really stood for.

  Penfold and Danger Mouse!

  

  Just for you dmouse:- http://www.dangermouse.org/

  http://www.do-not-call.org
• 

  dmouse

  Oh crikey!!!!

  My very own fan club!

  Seriously though, I used to love Dangermouse when I was a kid.

  Thanks for the link nicolaou, I had no idea it was there.