Well here's one such article from the WSJ that mentions it. I think my post was pretty self-explanatory about what I meant by IP. I was talking about all of the shiny steel tools used to get oil out of the ground. Those are designed and manufactured primarily by oil-service companies, but that's a distinction most people don't make. They lump them all together as "oil companies."
Razziel
JoinedPosts by Razziel
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89
+$4.00 Gasoline. How does it change the Energy game
by designs inwill it put pressure on politicians to approve the keystone pipeline.. should the nation's refineries stop selling as much gasoline as exports.. how does +$4.00 gasoline affect your monthly budget, how do you adjust..
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89
+$4.00 Gasoline. How does it change the Energy game
by designs inwill it put pressure on politicians to approve the keystone pipeline.. should the nation's refineries stop selling as much gasoline as exports.. how does +$4.00 gasoline affect your monthly budget, how do you adjust..
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Razziel
Something like 80% of the world's oil reserves have already been nationalized. The commercial oil producers still have a lot of clout with the rest, but it's the sovereign oil producers that call the shots. Many of the nationalized companies don't respect intellectual property or patent law either. They'll take a product from a commercial company, send it off to the local machine shop, reverse-engineer it, and start making their own (often inferior) copies, and then shut out the commercial company altogether.
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89
+$4.00 Gasoline. How does it change the Energy game
by designs inwill it put pressure on politicians to approve the keystone pipeline.. should the nation's refineries stop selling as much gasoline as exports.. how does +$4.00 gasoline affect your monthly budget, how do you adjust..
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Razziel
The first calc is in watt-hrs. The second is in watts. Hence why one is multiplied by 24 and the other one isn't.
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89
+$4.00 Gasoline. How does it change the Energy game
by designs inwill it put pressure on politicians to approve the keystone pipeline.. should the nation's refineries stop selling as much gasoline as exports.. how does +$4.00 gasoline affect your monthly budget, how do you adjust..
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Razziel
I think you saw the 85% and stopped reading from there. I didn't use the 85% in the estimation , I used the 25% in calculating the square footage to produce the kw-hr equivalent of 1 gallon of gas. And I also used the 240 watts/m^2 average from the article you posted, NOT 1400 or 1000 watts/m^2. I just listed that for reference.
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89
+$4.00 Gasoline. How does it change the Energy game
by designs inwill it put pressure on politicians to approve the keystone pipeline.. should the nation's refineries stop selling as much gasoline as exports.. how does +$4.00 gasoline affect your monthly budget, how do you adjust..
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Razziel
BTS, have you ever heard of a quick back-of-the-envelope estimation? Jesus Christ. It's just a quick sanity check calculation to see if the numbers are even in the ballpark of what's possible.
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89
+$4.00 Gasoline. How does it change the Energy game
by designs inwill it put pressure on politicians to approve the keystone pipeline.. should the nation's refineries stop selling as much gasoline as exports.. how does +$4.00 gasoline affect your monthly budget, how do you adjust..
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Razziel
That 85% came from the Shockley-Queisser limit, with infinite layers of p-n junctions. Not realistic, just idealistic.
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89
+$4.00 Gasoline. How does it change the Energy game
by designs inwill it put pressure on politicians to approve the keystone pipeline.. should the nation's refineries stop selling as much gasoline as exports.. how does +$4.00 gasoline affect your monthly budget, how do you adjust..
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Razziel
BTS I don't believe that will be done, I was just making a generous assumption to see what we could ideally do.
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89
+$4.00 Gasoline. How does it change the Energy game
by designs inwill it put pressure on politicians to approve the keystone pipeline.. should the nation's refineries stop selling as much gasoline as exports.. how does +$4.00 gasoline affect your monthly budget, how do you adjust..
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Razziel
From my post above, 22.3*.25 = 5.575 watts per square foot
1,000,000/5.575 = 179,372 square feet to produce 1,000,000 watts
43,560 square feet in 1 acre
179.372/43,560 = 4 acres
My math with several assumptions roughly matches design’s 3 to 5 acres for a 1MW solar plant. -
89
+$4.00 Gasoline. How does it change the Energy game
by designs inwill it put pressure on politicians to approve the keystone pipeline.. should the nation's refineries stop selling as much gasoline as exports.. how does +$4.00 gasoline affect your monthly budget, how do you adjust..
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Razziel
Edit: I fixed a screwup.
Oh, so let's say you do that every day. How long is the payoff.
Year 1 $5,000/365 = $13.7/gallon
Year 2 $5,000/730 = $6.8/gallon
Year 3 $5,000/1095 = $4.5/gallon
Year 4 $5,000/1460 = $3.4/gallon
Year 5 $5,000/1825 = $2.7/gallon
Year 6 $5,000/2190 = $2.2/gallon
Year 7 $5,000/2555 = $1.9/gallon
Year 8 $5,000/2920 = $1.7/gallon
Year 9 $5,000/3285 = $1.5/gallon
Year 10 $5,000/3650 = $1.36/gallon
Got to today's gas prices in my area by year 4. That's actually not that bad of a break-even time.
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89
+$4.00 Gasoline. How does it change the Energy game
by designs inwill it put pressure on politicians to approve the keystone pipeline.. should the nation's refineries stop selling as much gasoline as exports.. how does +$4.00 gasoline affect your monthly budget, how do you adjust..
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Razziel
1400 watts per square meter with no atmosphere
1000 watts per square meter with atmosphere and no clouds
1 square meter = 10.76 square feet
1000/10.76 = 93 watts per square foot maximum
According to the article BTS posted, in Arizona, in July, it’s about 240 watts per square meter per 24 hrs.
240/10.76 = 22.3 watts per square foot
Let’s be optimistic and say in a few years our solar panels will hit around the maximum theoretical conversion rate at 85%
22.3*.85 = 18.95 watts per foot per day
Multiply by 24 since the article said it was averaged over the entire 24 hr period
18.95*24 = 455 watt-hrs per day
33,700 watt hours in a gallon of gasoline is the rating the EPA uses.
33,700/455 = 74 square feet.
Right now, I think most panels are more towards 25% conversion rate.
33,700/(22.3*.25*24) = 251 square feet. That seems about right.
14 or 15 of the 3 X 6 panels should do it. And the panels would probably cost in the neighborhood of $5,000. And of course, that’s Arizona, in July. Might take a few more panels for the rest of us. And that’s only 1 gallon equivalent, so your commute would need to be very short each day.