In my response to JanH below, where I show I have added material, you will find that the numbers are very interesting.
Hi JanH: I broke this into a new thread because I want to make sure you see my response to your comment on my other post about the numbers of victims of pedophiles. Also, while you make some good points, I think that some misconceptions needs to be highlighted.
You said,
"Sorry, these numbers seems totally absurd. They fail even the most basic sanity check."
In none of my posts have I held up the number of 300+ victims per molester as an absolute number. I myself have openly stated that I have a hard time grasping this. I have stated that I am not 'hanging my hat' on this number.
I used the number 300+ based on what an attorney told me. he had used this data in court. He has been in the news for successfully prosecuting such cases in civil litigation. It is the largest average number I have learned of, and to me represents the upper limit of the potential scope. Most sites and data I have reviewed leans toward 100 to 120 victims as average. My real point in this exercise is to try and not just get a handle on the scope, but primarily to show possibilities and that even if each JW molester, about 5000+, in the organization only had one victim, the scope in my opinion is still high, not because the number is of itself unreasonable, but because much of it, if not most, could have been identified and possibly porevented ... were it not for Watch Tower policy interfering with such exposure and acountability.
You continued,
"Surely, there are a large number of "occasional molesters" who do it once or twice and never again, and even more who do it over a longer time with one or some very few victims."
This view is not uncommon, but reflects a lack of understanding or child molesters. A child molester rarely has just an 'occasional' victim, just once or twice unless they are caught near the beginning of their pedophile career, which is uncommon. Child molesters get away with this crime for years and years on average before getting caught. And their sick behavior does not stop with just one or two victims.
You continued,
"The classic predator who seeks out strangers to abuse is not the typical molestor. The fact that most victims were criminalized by a relative (or, not unausually, a step-parent) is evidence for this. People only have so many relatives."
Again, this view, while common, does not reflect reality. Old uncle John who dicked a couple of nephews is a classic impression, but fails the test of what really happens. Old uncle John might eventually get caught or sued by the nephews, but the scope of vicims being limited to his relatives is not feasible. These perverts need thier jollies like a narcotic fix, and will seek out sexual gratification in many ways, such as, but not limited to, porn movies of sex with minors, underage hookers, janitors in the bathrooms at schools, daycare centers where young ones are around them all day long, children of visiting families and visiting friends, in religious settings. The pastor of our church, post-JW days, used church outtings with families at retreats to get to the children.
To conclude that most molesters stick with a couple of relatives, such as one's own children is of itself absurd.
You noted,
"PS to Amazing: Your "satanic pedophile ring" story is similar to a dangerous urban legend, connected to various media scares in the 70s and 80s, that later proved to be unfounded. See e.g."
My comment about this has to do with one of my Justice Series where the man molested the children of a good friend of mine, and it was feared that he may have molested my children while they visited at their house. The man was arrested and it was later learned that he belonged to a Satanic ring for years while being a JW. I know the man personally, and know of his arrest. I have tried to get his court records, and other informatin on his registration as a sex offender.
Since I do not live any longer in the State of California, they will not share such information. In that State, you have to be a resident and living in proximity of a registered sex offender, and show cause that you have reason to know, such as if you have minor children who could be harmed. Since my children are grown, and I have no minors under my care, and I do not live in that State, I cannot get the information. I have asked a media person who interviewed me to get it, as they often have license under the 2nd Ammendment. I gave the name of the offender to that media person, and am waiting for a response.
Currently, I am also aware of an ongoing court case in New Jersey where a pedophile ring of JWs has been exposed, with the molesters on trial in a civil suit. SilentLambs may have the specifics of this case. I have talked with SilentLambs about this case a couple fo months ago. So, 'dangerous urban legend' in the 1970s and 1980s may have existed, but that is not related to the above situations I have described. Just because a legend exists does not discredit real events that may bear similarities.
Finally, of the molesters I have personally known, none have only had one or two victims, confined to relatives. This could be the case in some situations. Unfortunately, sadly, this is not the norm. Not that even such a limited scope is good, but it would be better than the reality that is known. Ideally, it would be good it identify molesters early on, and prevent them from victimizing anyone, but until science can discover a ratinal and legal way to do this, we are left to discover pedophiles when and where possible, often many years into their careers, and many victims being thus harmed.
Just how many victims? The jury is still out, but I do submit that the numebrs are high. The number 300+ also correlated to the national ratios of victims to pedophiles. That is not to say it is a hard and fast bonafide proven number, but rather, it is a number that has some merit, but may be significantly adjusted over time.
Even bringing the average down to 10 victims as some suggest still allows for a projected 5,000+ JW pedophiles to have harmed 50,000+ JW victims. This is still a serious number that can reap many bad consequences in the religion and in the general community for decades to come. Hope the above helps. - Amazing