Mexico: 2020 Census results released; bad news for the org?

by Corney 9 Replies latest watchtower beliefs

• 

  Corney

  A decade ago, the 2010 Census found there were 1,561,086 Jehovah's Witnesses in Mexico (Census page > Tabular data > Basic questionnaire > Religion). And according to the recently released 2020 Census results, the number of Mexicans identifying as such has declined by 2% to 1,530,909. Both figures greatly outnumber those reported by the organization (e.g., peak publishers: 710 thousands and 874 thousands respectively), which means the former ones include children and free-riders.

  For comparison, the total population has grown by 12%, the Catholic, Adventist (SDA) and Mormon (LDS) populations - by 5%, 16% and 6% respectively. Also, between 2000 and 2010 the number of JWs has grown by 36% (total - 18%, Catholic, SDA and LDS - 13%, 22% and 41%).

  Some questions still remain. First, it is one of accuracy. The recent census was conducted in March 2020 so it was impacted by the pandemic: some people - more than previously - were reluctant to respond, and the verification process was significantly delayed. But it is unlikely that the undercount, if any, was significant.

  Second, it's one of interpretation. It should be noted that in terms of people aged 15 and over, the JW population has grown by 7% (total - 20%, Catholic, SDA and LDS - 11%, 24% and 15%). The largest decrease was for age groups 0-4, 5-9 and 10-14 (by 1/3, 2/7 and 1/5 respectively); among those aged 15-24, it was 18%, etc. Beginning with the age group 40-44, there is a significant growth, up to between 60% and 80% for those aged 60 and over, significantly outnumbering the growth among general population. Which probably means the Jehovah's Witnesses lost many young free-riders (and perhaps active members) while still being succesful in converting older people. It is also possible that parents (especially non-JW and inactive JW ones) became more reluctant to identify their children as JW. Whatever inperpretation is correct, the recent census has some bad news for Watchtower.
• 

  slimboyfat

  This is an interesting result, and also follows declines according to census results in Canada. The results from Australia and New Zealand are worth comparing too.

  I’d be pretty suspicious of increases in Mormon numbers, because in recent years Mormons have campaigned heavily for all inactive Mormons to identify themselves as Mormons in censuses—no doubt because they are embarrassed that the census numbers are usually a fraction of their official counts. Even these measures have only increased census numbers slightly, making historical comparisons difficult for Mormons in particular.

  On the JW numbers going down, in Canada, and now Mexico, I suspect that one factor may be that inactive JWs no longer identif themselves as JWs in census forms. Up until 2000 or so I think most former JWs thought of themselves as still JWs and perceived their inactivity as temporary and not indicative of rejection of the faith. But in recent years the number of former JWs who positively reject the religion has probably grown as a proportion of leavers, due to bad press coverage, and the proliferation of discrediting information about JWs on the Internet.

  Maybe JWs have grown more suspicious of government in general because of news from Russia and elsewhere, so less inclined to declare on the census form. Perhaps the wording of the census has changed in some way, which can affect responses. The age of respondents may be the explanation as you seem to suggest. Perhaps JWs have interpreted the new census as referring to baptised members only. This would exclude a lot of JWs as young teenagers and children. This might not affect other denominations as much who baptise members younger, the Mormons at 8 years old for example.

  I wonder if other countries in Latin America will follow a similar pattern, because in common with Mexico, other Latin American countries have often produced far larger numbers of JWs than the official JW numbers.
• 

  joe134cd

  This subject interests me regarding the growth rates of religious groups, and success of the methods used. I have written on this subject many times. Here is one example.

  https://www.jehovahs-witness.com/topic/5926017217593344/lds-statistics-extension-may-suggest-that-jws-could-bigger-more-engaged-membership
  

  Although the census does show 3 other religious groups out preforming the JWs. What it doesn’t show are the activity rates and the depth of involvement by its members. Let’s make this clear, saying and doing are two different things. Btw take lds membership with a grain of salt.

  However, the Mexican census does support a few things. The counting methods used by the JWs tends to underestimate rather than overestimate. Generally, census figures tend to be twice that of what WT reports. This would support that Wt is been honest with it’s counting. Interestingly, the memorial attendance is around 20million, which would account for those who aren’t really involved in the religion.

  If you look at the above post. One could justifiably speculate that the jws could perhaps be bigger and more involved than the lds. This becomes even more impressive when you factor in that the lds had a 50 year head start on the JWs. By the the time CT Russel came along the mormons were established in Utah.

  In my opinion, the religion to watch is the SDA. Eventually this religion will begin to dominate the JWs/lds. They may even well be doing it now.
• 

  stan livedeath

  So has mexico got the highest number of dubs in all countries ?
• 

  slimboyfat

  No I think both by internal and external measurements the United States still has the most JWs.

  JW statistics suggest 1.2 million JWs in the US compared with 0.87 million JWs in Mexico.

  The Pew Survey in the US suggests as many as 2.5 million (0.8% of the population) self identify as JWs in the US compared with 1.5 million who self identify as JWs in the census in Mexico.

  But given that the Mexican census figure may exclude most children, and the memorial numbers are closer together (both around 2 million) they are possibly not all that far apart.
• 

  menrov

  I believe the difference is that WT counts those who report time, whereas a census counts those who say they belong to a religion. However those are not necessarily active. WT does not count the inactive ones, those who are POMO but when asked they are still identifying them as JW. I guess it is that this group does not want to be considered part of another Christian faith and at the same tie still believe.. Therefore, they would say to belong to JW as actually they do not.
• 

  joe134cd

  Menrov - What slim is trying to say is that the demographics of an inactive has changed. For example a person becoming inactive because he wants to watch the football on Sunday morning, but still believes it to be the truth. Therefore, he identifies with the religion in the census. To that same person been exposed to negative information via the internet, or news media, and not self identifying as a jw.
• 

  slimboyfat

  Yes, exactly so joe134cd

  Most inactive JWs used to still believe it was the truth and still considered themselves JWs.

  Now many inactive JWs are opposed to the religion and obviously wouldn’t call themselves JWs in a census.

  Hard to pin down or quantify, but I do strongly suspect this is a trend, and may explain why census figures are not so good for Watchtower as they used to be. It’s also a big vulnerability for Watchtower, because having millions of well disposed former members is many miles away from have millions of angry disaffected former members, and if the shift is from the former to the latter then it can come back to bite in all sorts of ways.
• 

  James Jack

  Corney

  I have been working with the U.S. Census Bureau for the past 2 years and there was no questions on the EQ form about religion. So, where did you get your information from?
• 

  Corney

  JJ

  There are links in my post, leading to the site of the National Institute of Statistics and Geography of Mexico (INEGI). I'm aware that in countries such as the USA, France, China, Russia etc. etc., censuses don't collect information on religous affiliation, but that is not the case everywhere.

  slimboyfat

  Thank you for interesting observations. I wasn't aware the Mormons had specific instructions regarding recent censuses (1; 2). As to the wording or design of religious affiliation question, it doesn't seem to change at all (3, question 6; 4, q. 4).

  Also, have you noticed this information? - https://www.reddit.com/r/exjw/comments/gku8os/interesting_statistics_from_finland/