Statistical Analysis of the top 25 countries in the world - Average Publishers

by ILoveTTATT2 9 Replies latest jw friends

• 

  ILoveTTATT2

  So I looked up the 2016 numbers and the top 25 countries:
  
  

  
  
  

  United States

  Mexico

  Brazil

  Nigeria

  Italy

  Congo, Dem. Republic of (Zaire, Belgian Congo)

  Japan

  Philippines

  Zambia (Northern Rhodesia)

  Russia

  Colombia

  Germany

  Argentina

  Venezuela

  Ukraine

  Britain

  Ghana (Gold Coast)

  France

  Peru

  Angola

  Poland

  Canada

  Spain

  Korea, Republic of

  South Africa

  The top 25 countries make up for close to 80% of all the Jehovah's Witnesses worldwide. It's safe to say that what happens in these countries affects the Watchtower strongly.
  
  Of these 25 countries, 5 had declines from 2010 to 2016:
  
  

  Germany

  Spain

  Japan

  Poland

  Ukraine

  
  Two had no growth:
  
  Canada and Britain
  
  11 had growth rates less than 2% per year:
  
  

  Colombia

  Brazil

  South Africa

  Peru

  Nigeria

  Russia

  Argentina

  France

  Italy

  Korea, Republic of

  United States

  
  The following had growth rates per year as follows:
  
  

  Angola : 7.56%

  Congo, Dem. Republic of (Zaire, Belgian Congo): 4.75%

  Ghana (Gold Coast): 3.51%

  Venezuela: 3.16%

  Mexico: 2.96%

  Philippines: 2.76%

  Zambia (Northern Rhodesia): 2.235

  
  
  In regular scale, here are the top 25 countries:

  

  In logarithmic scale, here are the top 25 countries:

  

  As you can see, the top three countries are USA, Mexico and Brazil. USA had its golden years from 1950-1990, and from 1990-2016 has not done so well. Brazil and Mexico exploded in the 1980's... The ones to watch out for are Nigeria (although it's slowing down), the Congo, and Angola.
  
  Angola is exploding right now...
  
  Possibly in 10-20 years the African countries will be around 500 thousand, and Mexico and Brazil might reach the U.S. numbers.
  
  What do you think?
• 

  alanv

  Providing any slight increase comes mainly from the poor countries, it is a good thing in my book. Certainly that is the way things have been going lately. Also of course, access to the internet is more widespread in rich countries for obvious reasons. Last year if you take the whole of Europe there was a decrease in average publishers. That is great news, along with many other countries that had little or no growth.
• 

  joe134cd

  That is fantastic these countries growing that can drain Wt funds.
• 

  St George of England

  Hi TTATT2 - Interesting figures, if you don't mind me asking, where did you get the data from?

  I just looked at the 2017 YB (2016) figures - in parentheses:-
  

  Angola : 7.56% (9%)

  Congo, Dem. Republic of (Zaire, Belgian Congo): 4.75% (22% - surely a typo!?)

  Ghana (Gold Coast): 3.51% (3%)

  Venezuela: 3.16% (4%)

  Mexico: 2.96% (1%)

  Philippines: 2.76% (1%)

  Zambia (Northern Rhodesia): 2.235 (6%)

  George
• 

  ILoveTTATT2

  Hi George,

  My figures are the average growth percent from 2010-2016.

  I did the following calculations:

  Publishers in 2016 / Publishers in 2010 = Ratio
  
  (Ratio^ (1/6) - 1) *100 = Percent increase per year from 2010 to 2016

  This evens out really good and really bad years.
• 

  Earnest

  Hi George,

  Congo, Dem. Republic of (Zaire, Belgian Congo): 4.75% (22% - surely a typo!?)

  The figure in the 2016 Yearbook showed an increase of 21.6%.

  It is interesting that no comment was made on this huge increase, but the fact there was an increase on this in the 2017 Yearbook suggests it is not a typo.
  

  Using ILoveTTAT's method of calculation I find that Dem. Republic of Congo (Zaire) had an annual growth rate of 5.95% for the years from 2010 to 2016.

  ((214,736 / 151,842) ^ (1 / 6) - 1) * 100
  
• 

  ILoveTTATT2

  Oops. I think I messed up with the data. I grabbed the peak pubs instead of the average pubs...
• 

  slimboyfat

  I was going to say that, but wanted to check first. One of the major surprises last year was a 22% increase in Congo.
• 

  St George of England

  TTATT2 - Thank you for the clarification.

  Earnest - I hadn't checked the 2016 YB, as you say suggests not a typo.

  George
• 

  Earnest

  These are the statistics for the years 2010 to 2016 using the same method of calculation with the figures for average publishers:
  

  Of the 25 countries, three had declines:

  Japan, Poland, Ukraine

  Six had growth rates of less than 1% per year:

  Germany, Republic of Korea, Canada, Italy, Spain, Britain

  Four had growth rates between 1% and 2% per year:

  Argentina, France, United States, Russia

  Six had growth rates between 2% and 3% per year:

  Brazil, Nigeria, South Africa, Peru, Colombia, Mexico

  The following had growth rates of more than 3% per year:

  Angola : 8.37%

  Congo, Dem. Republic of (Zaire, Belgian Congo): 5.95%

  Ghana (Gold Coast): 4.18%

  Venezuela: 3.86%

  Zambia: 3.51%

  Philippines: 3.04%