I have graphed JW census and average publisher data from 3 countries with similar Western democratic governments: Australia, Canada and New Zealand (NZ).
The census data is sourced from respective government publications and average publishers from JW organization Yearbooks.
Census data is incomplete either because a country did not have a census in the year under review or results from 2016 for that country are not currently available or I have not been able to source the data. I welcome others filling the gaps!
The NZ census data for 2013 is out of sync with Australia and Canada because a major earthquake in Christchurch in 2011 scurried plans for the quinquennial census.
Italicized entries indicate a peak number on the graph. For example, in NZ, the 1996 census reported a high of 19,527 JWs - subsequent census data showed fewer numbers reported as JWs.
Two trends are evident in the three countries:
1. Census data shows a steady decline in self-reported JW affiliation
2. Average publishers show increases - but they represent slowed growth - and some declines - over the selected 20-year period. Thus, average numbers of JW publishers in Canada grew by just 3,719 over that 20-year period and Australia, with a smaller total number of average publishers compared to Canada, saw average publishers grow by close to 6,500 over the same period.
I do not have the data on hand to compare the numerical growth rate in average publishers in the previous 20-year period (1976 - 1996). Perhaps you do? Please share.
I have double-checked the data and am, of course, receptive to feedback if there are errors.
EDITED TO ADD:
My apologies: Graph formatting lost when posted. I hope the numbers can be followed.
|
1996 |
2001 |
2006 |
2011 |
2016 |
|
|
AUSTRALIA |
|||||
|
CENSUS |
83,414 |
81,069 |
80,918 |
85,418 |
82,512 |
|
AV PUB |
60,216 |
58,993 |
60,692 |
64,498 |
66,689 |
|
CANADA |
|||||
|
CENSUS |
no data |
154,750 |
no data |
137,775 |
no data |
|
AV PUB |
110,235 |
107,218 |
107,618 |
111,970 |
113,954 |
|
N Z |
2013 |
||||
|
CENSUS |
19,527 |
17,826 |
17,910 |
17,931 |
no census |
|
AV PUB |
12,545 |
12,456 |
12,740 |
13,789 |
13,895 |