How does Life expectancy by Country affect JW growth?

by dropoffyourkeylee 3 Replies latest watchtower beliefs

• 

  dropoffyourkeylee

  Here's something I haven't considered before. Below are the average life expectancies by country (male and female combined), which I found at:

  http://www.infoplease.com/world/statistics/life-expectancy-country.html How might the life expectancy in a country play into the WT growth and retention? For instance, Malawi shows a life expectancy of 60. All the adult age JWs who lived through the Malawi persecution in '72-'74 are over 60, so the majority are dead. The current JWs there don't remember it. Many of the countries with higher growth rates are those with low life expectancies, particularly in Africa. This means that any growth there is short-lived. I do know that looking around the assemblies (in the US) it is shocking to me how old the JWs are. They can't make the 'elderly and infirm' section large enough anymore.

  Rank	Country	(years)
  1	Monaco	90
  2	Japan	85
  3	Singapore	85
  4	Macau	85
  5	San Marino	83
  6	Iceland	83
  7	Hong Kong	83
  8	Andorra	83
  9	Switzerland	83
  10	Guernsey	82
  11	Israel	82
  12	Luxembourg	82
  13	Australia	82
  14	Italy	82
  15	Sweden	82
  16	Liechtenstein	82
  17	Jersey	82
  18	Canada	82
  19	France	82
  20	Norway	82
  21	Spain	82
  22	Austria	81
  23	Anguilla	81
  24	Netherlands	81
  25	Bermuda	81
  26	Cayman Islands	81
  27	Isle of Man	81
  28	New Zealand	81
  29	Belgium	81
  30	Finland	81
  31	Ireland	81
  32	Germany	81
  33	United Kingdom	81
  34	Greece	80
  35	Saint Pierre and Miquelon	80
  36	Malta	80
  37	Faroe Islands	80
  38	European Union	80
  39	Korea, South	80
  40	Taiwan	80
  41	Virgin Islands	80
  42	Turks and Caicos Islands	80
  43	United States	80
  44	Wallis and Futuna	80
  45	Saint Helena, Ascension,	79
  	and Tristan da Cunha
  46	Gibraltar	79
  47	Denmark	79
  48	Puerto Rico	79
  49	Portugal	79
  50	Guam	79
  51	Bahrain	79
  52	Chile	79
  53	Qatar	79
  54	Cyprus	79
  55	Czech Republic	78
  56	Panama	78
  57	British Virgin Islands	78
  58	Costa Rica	78
  59	Cuba	78
  60	Albania	78
  61	Slovenia	78
  62	Curacao	78
  63	Dominican Republic	78
  64	Kuwait	78
  65	Northern Mariana Islands	78
  66	Argentina	78
  67	Sint Maarten	78
  68	Saint Lucia	78
  69	New Caledonia	78
  70	Lebanon	77
  71	Poland	77
  72	United Arab Emirates	77
  73	Uruguay	77
  74	Paraguay	77
  75	French Polynesia	77
  76	Brunei	77
  77	Slovakia	77
  78	Dominica	77
  79	Morocco	77
  80	Croatia	77
  81	Algeria	77
  82	Ecuador	77
  83	Aruba	77
  84	Sri Lanka	77
  85	Bosnia and Herzegovina	77
  86	Estonia	76
  87	Antigua and Barbuda	76
  88	Libya	76
  89	Tonga	76
  90	Macedonia	76
  91	Georgia	76
  92	West Bank	76
  93	Tunisia	76
  94	Hungary	76
  95	Mexico	76
  96	Cook Islands	76
  97	Saint Kitts and Nevis	76
  98	Colombia	75
  99	China	75
  100	Mauritius	75
  101	Maldives	75
  102	Serbia	75
  103	Oman	75
  104	Barbados	75
  105	American Samoa	75
  106	Solomon Islands	75
  107	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines	75
  108	Saudi Arabia	75
  109	Romania	75
  110	Gaza Strip	75
  111	Iraq	75
  112	Malaysia	75
  113	Lithuania	75
  114	Syria	75
  115	Turkey	75
  116	Venezuela	75
  117	Seychelles	74
  118	Thailand	74
  119	El Salvador	74
  120	Bulgaria	74
  121	Armenia	74
  122	Jordan	74
  123	Latvia	74
  124	Montserrat	74
  125	Grenada	74
  126	Egypt	74
  127	Jamaica	74
  128	Uzbekistan	74
  129	Brazil	74
  130	Peru	73
  131	Samoa	73
  132	Vietnam	73
  133	Vanuatu	73
  134	Nicaragua	73
  135	Palau	73
  136	Marshall Islands	73
  137	Micronesia, Federated States of	73
  138	Trinidad and Tobago	73
  139	Belarus	72
  140	Indonesia	72
  141	Fiji	72
  142	Bahamas, The	72
  143	Azerbaijan	72
  144	Greenland	72
  145	Guatemala	72
  146	Suriname	72
  147	Cabo Verde	72
  148	Ukraine	72
  149	Iran	71
  150	Honduras	71
  151	Bangladesh	71
  152	Kazakhstan	71
  153	Russia	70
  154	Moldova	70
  155	Kyrgyzstan	70
  156	Korea, North	70
  157	Turkmenistan	70
  158	Bhutan	70
  159	Mongolia	69
  160	Philippines	69
  161	Bolivia	69
  162	Belize	69
  163	India	68
  164	Guyana	68
  165	Timor-Leste	68
  166	Nepal	68
  167	Pakistan	67
  168	Tajikistan	67
  169	Papua New Guinea	67
  170	Nauru	67
  171	Burma	66
  172	Ghana	66
  173	Tuvalu	66
  174	Kiribati	66
  175	Madagascar	66
  176	Yemen	65
  177	Gambia, The	65
  178	Sao Tome and Principe	65
  179	Togo	65
  180	Cambodia	64
  181	Laos	64
  182	Comoros	64
  183	Equatorial Guinea	64
  184	Eritrea	64
  185	Kenya	64
  186	Sudan	64
  187	Haiti	64
  188	Djibouti	63
  189	Mauritania	63
  190	Western Sahara	63
  191	South Africa	62
  192	Tanzania	62
  193	Ethiopia	61
  194	Benin	61
  195	Senegal	61
  196	Malawi	61
  197	Burundi	60
  198	Guinea	60
  199	Rwanda	60
  200	Congo, Republic of the	59
  201	Liberia	59
  202	Cote d'Ivoire	58
  203	Cameroon	58
  204	Sierra Leone	58
  205	Zimbabwe	57
  206	Congo, Democratic Republic of the	57
  207	Angola	56
  208	Mali	55
  209	Niger	55
  210	Burkina Faso	55
  211	Uganda	55
  212	Botswana	54
  213	Nigeria	53
  214	Mozambique	53
  215	Lesotho	53
  216	Zambia	52
  217	Gabon	52
  218	Somalia	52
  219	Central African Republic	52
  220	Namibia	52
  221	Swaziland	51
  222	Afghanistan	51
  223	Guinea-Bissau	50
  224	Chad	50
• 

  TheOldHippie

  I am sorry to have to tell you that you are making one HUGE mistake in saying that when life expectancy in Malawi is 60, it means there are close to no people there 60 or older. The main difference is summed up in two words, my friend: Child mortality. Life expectancy at birth varies a lot, as your tabulation shows, but if you had looked at it once they have reached the age of say 20, it evens out. There are lots of old people in African countries, but the figures above are influenced by the terrible death rate of children.

  Also, that a population is ageing, as in Japan and other countries, has nothing to do with people living longer, but has to do with the number of children born. Fewer children born = ageing population. People living longer does not influence the ageing of a population. People DO live longer, but it is two mechanisms that do not influence each other.
  
• 

  Giordano

  The Old Hippie makes a good point.

  I think the retention rate of born-ins is another important factor. If they are leaving in droves then the WT Society is pretty much finished and will go the way of other religions.

  Within it's construct the WTBTS actively looks for ways to stifle descent.....it's shunning policy is off the scale so it keeps them much smaller then just about any other comparative religion. If you have 34 ways to get rid of a follower.....just saying.

  Access to the internet is having a serious negative effect for the JW's, Mormons, Scientologists etc.
  
• 

  cookiemaster

  Average life expectancy does not mean people in Malawi don't live longer than 60. It's just the average length of a human life in that country. Being an average, it can be dragged down severely by those dying young and dragged up significantly by those that reach old age. People in Malawi can too die of old age at 80 or 90 naturally, like everyone else, but huge infant mortality brings the average life expectancy way down. You'll find plenty of people over 60 there.