I think it's possible for a change of trend in JW growth

by Chook 19 Replies latest watchtower beliefs

  • oppostate

    I think the GB knows the numbers so they have been amassing billions for an endowment strong eggnest to keep the b0rg sustainable.

  • shepherdless

    I am looking forward to seeing the published numbers this year. I expect to see either zero growth or negative 1% for virtually every European country, USA, Canada, Aust, NZ, etc. This may seem unremarkable now, but even 2 years ago, it would have sounded overly optimistic (or pessimistic depending on your p.o.v.).

    They will probably still get growth in Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa, Phlippines etc, unfortunately. It will be interesting to see how much.

  • Vidiot
    oppostate - "I think the GB knows the numbers so they have been amassing billions for an endowment strong eggnest to keep the b0rg sustainable."

    Agreed, but not billions.

    Millions, though? Sure.

  • DesirousOfChange
    oppostate - "I think the GB knows the numbers so they have been amassing billions for an endowment strong eggnest to keep the b0rg sustainable."

    Vidiot: Agreed, but not billions. Millions, though? Sure.

    I agree with oppostate -- BILLION$.

    The (still ongoing) sale of Bethel properties in NYC alone exceeded $1 Billion and perhaps closer to $2 Billion.

    Add in the sales of over 20 WTS Branch offices throughout the world.

    Then consider the 10's of 1000's of Congregations that "voluntarily donated" all of their surplus funds.

    Every weekend, Cir Assms at every Assembly Hall results in $10,000 in "voluntary donations" direct to WT HQ.


  • dropoffyourkeylee

    There is growth in numbers of publishers in Africa. But they have no money.

  • sir82

    I expect to see zero growth or an overall decrease in JWs this year or next. If they still publish the numbers.

    Why so? It's been a pretty consistent 1 or 2% growth rate for the past decade, number of baptisms is holding more or less steady.

    I agree that at some point the numbers will level off, but I think it is still a few years in the future.

    Do you have some basis for expecting it this year?

  • My Name is of No Consequence
    My Name is of No Consequence

    Once the overall numbers start declining, they will no longer be published or they will spin it somehow.

  • alanv

    I actually collated the figures from Europe last year, and overall there was no increase at all in average publishers.

  • steve2

    And its due to only one thing ... the age demographics of the western world. We all know that the age profile of the Organization is about 10 years older than the local populations and when coupled with the fact of the low birth rate of Witnesses, it goes to underscore the current reality of the very real population decline. Don't believe me ... go look inside any Kingdom Hall in Europe or Australia ... and see that it's all ready just another a senior citizens club.

    Yes, this is the most immediately plausible "cause" of the stagnation (and decline) of JWs in the Western world.

    Some months ago, I caught sight of a group of about 6 or 7 local JWs out witnessing on a nearby block (This in itself caught my eye because I seldom see them out and about these days). No children or youth among them. I had to make deliveries and when I returned I saw the same older group shuffling along the pavement talking to one another. This sight reminded me that it is literally years since I've seen groups of younger ones out door-knocking or even manning the literature trolleys.

    Where are the younger ones?

  • slimboyfat

    sir82 a key trend that indicates decline is imminent is the fall in baptisms. There are not enough new JWs to replace those who dying, leaving or excluded.

    It's true that, in absolute terms, baptism numbers have only declined a little. But in relative terms baptisms are at an all time low and falling. See the "baptisms as a percentage of publishers" graph on Paul's site.


    In addition, a weird bump in publishers in the Congo inflated numbers last year. They can't count on that again next year. That's why I think it could easily be close to zero growth within a couple of years.

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