Will the Brexit Trigger ever be pulled?

by Slidin Fast 5 Replies latest social current

  • Slidin Fast
    Slidin Fast

    Since David Cameron has bowed out, his successor is not going to pull the Article 50 trigger any time soon. We don’t even have a successor yet.

    BoJo looked sheepish and chastened at having won the leave vote, I don’t think he really believed he would win. He was at best flying a flag of convenience in heading up the Brexit camp, was his heart really in it?

    Whoever becomes PM, months are going to roll by before anyone expects the time to come. The pulling of the trigger is going to create a massive set of consequences that are probably not completely manageable of foreseeable. The bravest man would hesitate. How about a politician?

    My question. Will it ever happen? Will there ever be a perfect time? WiBl there be a set of excuses that mean “the time of the end” is just round the corner?

  • Simon

    I don't think it will. I think there is enough doubt and regret to have another vote but not as a referendum.

    If Boris thought he was going to inherit the job as PM, it just turned sour for him and I think he knows it.

    He can't become PM on the basis of the exit and then decide *not* to go through with it.

    He can't become PM and go through with it because Scotland and NI will leave and he'll be the dick who broke up the union and brought economic collapse.

    He can't even not try to become PM - that's just as suicidal politically.

    I think there will be a general election and someone run on the ticket of cancelling the exit and not initiating article 50. That mandate, if successful, would then negate the referendum result.

    In future, I think anything having such a huge impact needs more of a sustained support than an odd vote with a slim majority and lots of idiots voting without taking it seriously. It needs a substantive majority and the voting needs to be weighted based on the number of years people will need to live with the decision.

  • Slidin Fast
    Slidin Fast

    I think the British expertise is in sliding round situations like this and balancing expectations without making a decision.

    Gordon Brown was an expert at it, promising Britain's adoption of the Euro when it was 'prudent". At one time we were so near that people were altering cash registers. Somehow the time never came.

  • Gargamel

    In spite of the public posturing, I reckon that people are doing a lot of talking behind the scenes about how to wriggle out of Brexit.

    There will be scapegoats - those who are not able to save their arses and their faces at the same time - the ones regarded as more expendable.

    My greatest concern is that as the politicians fudge, a new champion of the extreme right will emerge (Farage?). He would probably trigger Article 50 but the new isolation wouldn't be the Promised Land, it would more likely be a slow descent into pre-war Germany.

  • notsurewheretogo

    Eh?...just about everyone says the public made their choice and it will be respected including David Cameron.

    Article 50 will be triggered, it is democracy.

    We just don't know who and when.

  • Gargamel

    "Eh?...just about everyone says the public made their choice and it will be respected including David Cameron.

    Article 50 will be triggered, it is democracy.

    We just don't know who and when."

    But there's the rub. Triggering it could make the current meltdown look like a pop-gun. I'm not so sure who would want that legacy.

    Britain and the EU are currently playing a game of brinkmanship. Although the uncertainties are bad for the UK, they are bad for Europe too - and other countries. It's not good for it to rumble on, but it's difficult to see an alternative.

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