Japan On High Alert
My son is traveling this summer to South Korea with a group of other American high schoolers. It would be devastating to my son if the trip is cancelled. Two years ago, the same trip was scheduled, but cancelled because of the MERS virus in 2015. This is his last chance to make it to South Korea under this program because he will be moving on to university. Our city's (Burbank, CA) cultural exchange program never had a cancelled trip in 30 years and now my son may get two cancelled trips, back to back. What are the odds.
But I rather have it cancelled if it's dangerous.
A senior NK government minister has stated today that if the USA take any military action at all they will react with a preemptive nuclear attack.
China holds the key. NK depends on China for most of its food and fuel. Further sanctions would result in more civilian suffering but the alternative is much worse.
Plus China is close to the possible areas that NK would nuke, South Korea and Japan, and NK itself. Does North Korea currently have the capability of nuking the US directly?
I'm no expert on how radiation from the missiles would drift into China.
Like pooping in your neighbor's backyard.....
Prevailing winds and the jet stream flow west to east. Fallout from nuclear weapons will used in Korea will drift across Japan and eventually reach the US (although widely dispersed by that time).
I don't think the North Koreans need nukes. They can flatten Seoul in an afternoon with conventional weapons. What happens after they do that is anybody's guess. The Chinese, Japanese and Russians will all have reason to take action.
I think people are underestimating just how involved China is with North Korea and how little China wish for a unified Korea:
North Korea and China have a treaty according to which they are obliged to defend each other and provide assistance in the event of war. In other words, if the US bomb North Korea, China is required to come to north Korea's assistance militarily on the simplest interpretation. There are indications this treaty is not simply seen as a cold-war relic by China since the anniversary of the signing was celebrated last year.
North Korea's attempts to obtain ICBMs with nukes has been underway for decades and is now in the final stages. Obviously, China has long ago accepted this will happen, and recognize it as a far lesser evil than a unified Korea. Drawing red lines in the sand and hoping China will change its minds seems very far-fetched to me at this point, not only because of the current US administration could not convince an alligator to eat a chicken, but also because what exactly can anyone offer China?
What should also be mentioned is that now that North Korea has nuclear weapons, China has more incentive to prevent unification because what they least of all like is a nuclear unified Korea on its border.
They would probably target US bases in Guam and South Korea.
---------and Japan, bases on Okinawa
Yep - the bases on Okinawa are in direct line of fire.
snowbird, hopefully the US has evacuation plans for dependents, better than the ones in 1961 when the Berlin Wall was built and the US and USSR were rattling their sabers, uh missiles.
I spent my time in the US Embassy separated from my family. They did treat us well, all us kids, some only 4 years old. I was a pre-teen. Less access to media. We slept, ate, and played games inside. Only 10 miles from the East German border, lined with tanks.
What a world!
Yeah, what a world.
My g'daughter and g'son-in-law are unusually mature.
He's an airman; she's working at the Post X and taking online courses toward a Psych degree.
He's 20, she's 19.
So proud of them!