Baptism's Statistical Puzzle!

by MacHislopp 5 Replies latest jw friends

  • MacHislopp

    Hello everyone,

    This post it to answer to the many requests concerning the

    official WTBS Inc.'s figures for the total number of :

    active proponents of Kingdom rule alias publishers,

    keeping well in mind the quote from :

    The Watchtower 15 th January, 2001 page 17 3:

    Of course , the number of those associated with Jehovahs Witnesses is not a criterion for determining if they enjoy

    divine favor, nor do statistics impress God.

    Let's take a look at these figures, for the last

    40 years, wellfrom the the year 1962.

    Here we go:

    *** 1961 no. of average publishers884,587

    *** N. of baptisms 1962-2002.8,312,330

    ***Maximum (possible) total of

    of baptized Ws in the year 2002..9,196,917 (a)


    ***Peak of Publishers for the

    year 2002.6,304,645 (b)

    - in this case (b) where are the

    missing 2,892,272 publishers???

    ***Average of Publishers for the

    year 2002 ..6,048,600

    - in this case where are the

    missing 3,148,317 publishers???

    Again, some more interesting questions for the

    'defenders ' of the mighty WTBS Inc. -

    Greetings, J.C.MacHislopp

    "Historia est testis temporum, lux veritatis,

    vita memoriae, magistra vitae, nuntia vetustatis".

    (Cicerone , De Oratore, II)

  • Gopher

    JC -- That quote from the 2001 Watchtower was quite interesting. That view is quite different than I heard before.

    When the JW organization was growing rapidly in my memory (up to 1975, and then again between 1979 and 1995), I heard that the numbers were proving Jehovah's blessing on the Watchtower Society!! Like their Kingdom song says, "Hail the Theocracy, Ever Increasing!" What would that song say now, "Hail the Theocracy, Barely Holding on!" ??

    As far as the 9.1 million prospective publishers you cited -- in the interests of mathematical accuracy and fairness, how many of those would have died in the last 40 years? Someone with a better handle of statistical analysis than I probably has that answer right on the tip of their tongue.

  • NameWithheld

    Gopher, I think that a 1% death rate per annum is generally thought to be standard. So take 1% off each year. To be accurate, you would have to, for each year ...

    Last year's pub count + current year's baptisms - 1% = new year's pubs.

    The difference between your result from the above calc and the 'reported' pubs would = the # of people who left the JW org.

  • LovesDubs

    I dont think we should deduct that one percent for those who have died...hey the way I look at it they got out of the Organization the EASY way :)

  • MacHislopp

    Hello again,

    I do hope you like my new...profile's picture!

    Greetings, J.C.MacHislopp

  • ozziepost
    the number of those associated with Jehovahs Witnesses is not a criterion for determining if they enjoy divine favor

    I suppose that applies to "other churches" too! So will we now see no more of the nonsense of the WTS criticising the churches for their diminishing numbers?

    G'day Mac,

    Nice of you to remind us of this important aspect of the numbers. You haven't mentioned deaths and DF though. That needs to be factored into the equation.

    BTW I like your new pic. Nice shade of blue! I've got a soccer shirt that colour!!

    Cheers, Ozzie

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