Figures don't lie, but liars can figure

by onacruse 3 Replies latest watchtower child-abuse

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  onacruse

  Didn't think my first thread would be about this, but all the conversation about how many JW abuse victims there could be really got me to thinking. I fully agree with everyone here that this is a people and victims problem, not a numbers issue. However, I was painfully surprised to see how the following statistics work out.

  The US national child victimization rate for 2000 was 12.2 per 1,000.* The rates vary somewhat by age group, sex and year, but this means that approximately 17% of everyone under 15 in the US has been abused. (This corresponds with w83 10/1 27-31** which states "Studies...suggest that one in five girls and one in ten boys suffer sexual molestation before they grow up." That would mean a 15% abuse rate).

  Approx 30% of the world population is below the age of 15.*** With about 1 million JWs in the US, that means about 300,000 JW youngsters.

  At a 15% abuse rate, this would indicate 45,000 JW victims in the US alone. Worldwide, based on 6 million members, that becomes 270,000 victims.

  I'm no statistical analyst, so if these conclusions are wrong, please let me know. But it sure looks to me like the "order of magnitude" of 27,000+/- abusers and 5,000+/- victims in silentlambs are well within the expected limits, and in fact very probably too conservative.

  Never once in my 40 years as a JW did it occur to me that there could be such a serious problem of this magnitude in WTS. What's more, the Society 20 years ago had all the info needed to at least anticipate the probable degree of the problem.

  The figures don't lie. But those liars sure should have figured.

  *National Clearinghouse on Child Abuse and Neglect Information http://www.calib.com/nccanch/pubs/factsheets/canstats.cfm

  **Thanks to ISP for posting that article in his recent "Real Reason..." thread

  ***Encylcopedia Britannica
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  Europe

  Sound very reasonable to me!!

  But I asked a J.W. about those rates and he told me, ofcourse, that they were much below average!!! Same story with the suicide rate, according to his magazine, their rate was very low!!! What do we f.i. need CNN for?? We have the Awake, very accurate and trustworthy!! *lol*
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  Scully

  onacruse:

  Thanks for this information. I think you're on the right track here, but don't forget that when you come to your figure of:

  "At a 15% abuse rate, this would indicate 45,000 JW victims in the US alone. Worldwide, based on 6 million members, that becomes 270,000 victims."

  you're referring to CURRENT (under 15 yrs old) victims, and not people who were the victims of child abuse/molestation but are now 16 years old and older. Plus, there are statistics out there that give the average number of victims per molester as being about 10-12 in the abuser's lifetime. Child molestation is a lifetime "hobby" of these perpetrators, they are incredibly difficult to rehabilitate, as they do not see a problem with their behaviour, they think the problem lies in society's rules/laws that object to their behaviour.

  Even so, using the Society's own figure of 23,720 JW child molestors in the US, Canada and Europe, if you figure conservatively that each molestor has 10 victims, you still come up with a figure of 237,200 victims. If you multiply by 12, you come up with 284,640 victims. Not too far off from your figure.

  BTW: The JW who tried to molest me (I was 17 at the time) had 4 other victims to my knowledge. How many he had that I don't know about is anyone's guess.

  Love, Scully
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  onacruse

  Europe: "...their rate was very low." How often I used that response! That's one thing that struck me about the raw numbers--even if a JW said the WTS was 10 times better than "the world," that would still leave almost 27,000 victims worldwide, about 1 in every 3 congregations. I don't think the average dub would even want to accept that rate, but how far can reality be stretched? (Oh, sorry, forgot I was talking about WTS).

  Scully: Indeed no, my original calculations DIDN'T include the accumulated victims that have now become adults. Makes it all the worse, considering that abused children so often themselves become abusers as adults. The problem feeds on itself. PS: Thanks for correcting that 27,000 to 23,720 (I couldn't find the thread).

  Thanks to both,

  Craig