Scammers, religion and cognitive bias

by GoodGuyGreg 3 Replies latest jw friends

  • GoodGuyGreg
    GoodGuyGreg

    A few years ago, my in-laws got scammed by one of the reverse pension plan schemes that flourished at the time. I found both the process of them getting scammed and the technique used by the scammers really interesting, and I'm sure you'll recognize the general deal:

    It began with a person they trusted saying he had found a great deal that seemed very promising: a small investment now would turn into a large reward in a short while, when the particulars had been straightened out. In fact, a few people had apparently already been given the reward, but no particulars could be given, since providing proof could break the deal for the rest of the members.

    Pretty regularly, a newsletter would be sent out, describing the success the organization had, how the numbers were increasing, and how lucky all members were to be part of this great deal that would give them freedom and happiness for the rest of their lives. Oh, but there were some problems on the horizon, with mighty governments trying to stop people from reaching this happiness. But not to worry: victory would be had. And you can buy additional shares to get an even higher reward. And don't forget to tell all your friends about it: if you do, your cut will be even higher.

    Then came the newsletters describing the unruly dissidents who claimed this was all a scam. Don't listen to them! Be patient, we will all soon be rewarded. Actually, don't even bother trying to read their texts, it will only make you depressed, and who needs that, right?

    The promised date of payment came and went, and everything was silent. A week later, a newsletter came, saying that payments had begun to select people, but that there still were some kinks to straighten out for the majority of members. Oh and there was still a chance to pay for additional shares to get even more money out of it.

    This went on for more than a year before I got through to them that it had all the hallmarks of a scam, and that it surely was one. They simply didn't want to believe it, and they kept investing into scam shares during this period.

    Another scheme I witnessed on a close level, was the ASEA water one. The basic premise is that they've done something to water that other scientists have not been able to do, which provides the cells with fuel for the vital redox process that, when it ends, is a sure sign that the cell is dying. Utter pseudoscientific bullcrap, of course - what they're selling is mildly salty water - but it has been selling like hotcakes at ridiculous prices.

    This time, it was the PO of our congregation, who asked us for advice if this was worth spending money on as a side income for his wife (not only are the schemers taking advantage of the ill, but they've also built a ponzi scheme-like structure around it). Again, someone they trusted had introduced them to the product, along with claims of miraculous effects (actually, salty water does seem to have a positive short-time effect on, for example, eczema - but you don't have to pay hundreds of dollars for it, it's enough to boil tap water along with some table salt), and again, the company had astroturfed the web so you only got positive reviews on the entire first page of a google search, unless you added the word scam to the search. And the same thing happened here: I told them in short how the presentation of the product was a mess of buzzwords and nonsense, and that it couldn't physically be produced as described, and I showed them how more knowledgeable people had already beaten this horse to death in blog posts and on forums, and they still went for it because they simply wanted to believe in it.

    And I see the same thing when the subject has arisen with witnesses who still talk to me about (semi-) religious matters: you can positively kill a teaching from a logical standpoint, and show them how it just doesn't fit with reality, but they still will hold on to it, not because it makes sense any longer, but because they effectively want to, and because the consequences of losing faith in it would seriously disturb the daily hopes they have.

    I guess my main point with this post was to share the thought that you can't make people make rational decisions using rational arguments if they have a confirmation bias in another direction. In such cases, people will only change if they have an emotional reason to change, or hopefully remove, their bias. And from what I've seen, the main reason for such a change, is if they personally experience an unfair treatment by the instigators of the scheme they're affiliated with. That in turn, makes some people bitter, which again is likely the reason the Society claims that apostates are bitter: some are, and for a good reason. They've gotten scammed, they've been used as tools for further spreading the scam, and when they realized they'd been had, they got an unfair trial and an effective gag order.

    Well, to some of us, the light does get clearer, and what a beautiful day it is.

  • zeb
    zeb

    well put

  • Phizzy
    Phizzy

    The problem with holding duff shares, or being part of a duff or scam scheme is that people get the "Sunk Cost" syndrome, they have put so much in to it, or rested all their hopes on it, so it "must come right in the end."

    Sadly it rarely does, the duff shares drop in cost till they are no longer quoted, the "scheme" is either a scam, or it goes bust or both.

    It is similar with those in the JW "religion", waitng for the 'bus to Paradise, they have so much invested in it, all their hopes and dreams, this life that they could have lived and enjoyed they have wasted in it, their kids are married in to it, they have in-laws and family and all their social support network in it.

    They vainly think that in the end it will all work out, but like the gambler on a losing streek, they will not win the jackpot in the end.

  • Honesty
    Honesty

    It sounds just like another scam that I have a lot of experience with involving magazines.

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