The USS Global Diarrhea has just set sail!!! ALL ABOARD!!!

by sinis 8 Replies latest jw friends

  • sinis
    sinis

    Its going to be a DOOMY YEAR!!! Yeeeaaaa Uhhhhhhh!!!

    "Presented with little comment, if only to add that at the current rate of degradation in NYSE total trading volume - from post US downgrade to now, Birinyi's Ruler implies volume will entirely disappear by December 11th 2012 - perhaps the Mayans were right after all..."

    "Based on the NYSE index data, the mean duration of holding period by US investors was around 7 years in 1940. This stayed the same for the next 35 years. The average holding period had fallen to under 2 years by the time of the 1987 crash. By the turn of the century it had fallen to below one year. It was around 7 months by 2007.

    Similar pattern exists in the UK also as shown in the chart above. There the average duration has fallen from around 5 years in the mid-1960s to less than 7.5 months in 2007.

    Over the past 15 years even in international equity markets, holding periods have fallen. The Chinese market was red hot until few months ago. However the duration for the Shanghai stock market index is close to just 6 months.This shows that Chinese investors do not have a long term horizon."

  • Iamallcool
    Iamallcool

    (bookmarking)

  • sinis
  • bohm
    bohm

    what is so special about september?

    linear extrapolation only make sence with some confidence analysis on the parameters.

  • thetrueone
    thetrueone

    Strange graph considering that there has been growth in manufacturing and a improvement in employment numbers in the last year.

  • sinis
    sinis

    TheTrueOne - you actually believe the employment numbers? According to shadow stats 68 million Americans do not have a job. Those that fall off the rolls are no longer counted and the vast majority who do find a job, find that it pays significantly less than the previous one (or they have to take mulitple part time jobs to make ends meet), creating a disparity in their income/prior way of life/living standards...

  • bohm
    bohm

    sinis: try to plot the 1 year extrapolation for any random 4-month periode, it will give you an idea of how accurate linear extrapolation is to actually predict the future. for instance, try the same periode 1 year ago.

  • sinis
    sinis

    Bohm, I realize that. However, when volume is tanking, and stats are showing people yanking their IRA's and 401K's, thats a very bad sign...

  • thetrueone
    thetrueone

    Could this graph which specifically relates to stocks and their volume sales, mean that people and investment firms are putting

    their holdings out the stock market and placing it into more relatively more secure options ?

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