"These are the times that try men's souls" - so said my favourite writer, an American who invented the very concept and phrase. "United States of America". He sought to encourage the seemingly ridiculous idea that a disunited rag tag army could beat the greatest empire of the day and become independent. And yet, here we are... Some of this may have happened because German immigrants to colonial America knew how to make rifles instead of muskets, so that British officers were being killed at an unexpected distance, with accuracy. Ask the former Soviets what happened to their empire when mujihedin were given Stinger missiles that shattered the opposing airforce.
I don't think I've seen a time more overwhelmingly lacking in a positive vision or any credible plan to end what will be recognized as a depression. In the past, no wisdom was needed, as the government just spent more, people elected somebody else and things recovered, regardless of best intentions.
This is very different. The demographics will not permit any meaningful recovery - I'm not sure whether the 'experts' don't realize this or just don't want to talk about it. I can't find any credible argument to overcome the thought that you can't have economic growth without more people. If you don't make babies, you're facing hard times and decline and depression. You can't borrow from future generations when the future generations were never born. Greeks have 42 grandkids per 100 grandparents.
These are generalizations, but the main point stands and the whole 'subprime' escapade looks like a desperate attempt to get around demographics by ignoring the credit unworthiness of poor people. The middle class has been suffering for quite a while amidst economic growth that may have been mostly imaginary.
I'm sure the Watchtower will be eager to exploit any hopelessness they can find, from stalking the newly bereaved at cemetaries to promises of useful employment in the New Earth. They may score more empty numbers but still suffer from a lack of donations. Good luck with that.
It can hard to find hope in this environment but I believe it will emerge. We are greatly misled by academics and government officials who can only think in linear terms - they are addicted to just extrapolating trends without considering the reality of nonlinear, disruptive change.
I post odd, hopeful items here because some of them are likely to bear fruit. While there are many general 'enemies of the people' who use their power to dominate humanity - big banks, big drug companies, and big government - in fact, the Internet makes their misrule more unlikely to continue than ever.
While protestors sit around Wall Street with vague, uncertain, and 'angered to be questioned as to specifics' emotion, there are all sorts of things that could emerge suddenly - and that's probably why the elites in power hate the Internet - and want it controlled.
Disruptive technology is underestimated as to common effect, while politics is extolled despite how silly it all is. Elect a President with no managerical experience whatsoever? And then be surprized at his failure? Really?
What could be disruptive?
3-D printing/ manufacturing (see: http://www.popsci.com/cars/article/2010-11/hybrid-car-created-completely-3d-printing )
Cold Fusion and unexpected new energy sources beyond fossil fuels
Anti-viral therapy (that could make AIDS into a simple chronic, non fatal infection - or eliminate it completely)
Stem cells that could put doctors out of business ( while elevating nurses !)
Anti-aging therapy that could destroy pensions
Artificial Intelligence developments that could push vast numbers into unemployment ('You want fries with that?")
The future is not 'more jobs', but it might be 'more resources' and more deflationary goods. How would your life be different if you had free electricity and your car required no gasoline? Suppose Grandpaw lived to be 150? Suppose being gay carried no health risks whatsoever?
I don't say all of these things will happen but I do say - based on my 'read' of history and experience with investing - that some of them will and you only need one to radically change our whole way of life and employment. That's the problem with these 'steady-state', graph obsessed "experts". And my frustration with this silence - potentially hopeful- is why I ramble on this way about the future as to what will really happen, apart from Watchtower dreams.
metatron