VAT 4956 - Comparison Of The Lunar Three Time Intervals For Years 568/7 BCE and 588/7 BCE (page 4)

Alleymom

Alleymom	Re: WT Nov. 1, 2011 (public) - When Was Ancient Jerusalem Destroyed - Part 2 posted 24 days ago (9/2/2011)
Post 1262 of 1372 Since 10/19/2001	From my post 1159, November 2007 -- The data in astronomical diary VAT 4956 was analyzed and verified by Dr. Richard Stephenson and Dr. David M. Willis. Their paper on VAT 4956 was presented at a conference on "Astronomy and Mathematics in the Ancient Near East," held in June 2001 at the British Museum. The research papers from the conference were published in 2002 in a book edited by Dr. John Steele, an archeo-astronomer in the Department of Physics at Durham University. The title of the book is Under One Sky: Astronomy and Mathematics in the Ancient Near East (Band 297 in the series Alter Orient und Altes Testament), edited by John M. Steele and Annette Imahusen, published in 2002 by Ugarit-Verlag, Munster. The name of the article is "The Earliest Datable Observation of the Aurora Borealis," by Dr. Richard Stephenson and Dr. David M. Willis, pp. 421-428. They discussed VAT 4956 again in an article with the same title, published in December 2004 in the journal Astronomy and Geophysics, volume 45, issue 6, pages 6.15 - 6.17: "The Earliest Datable Observation of the Aurora Borealis." I have read (and have copies of) both articles. The authors "confidently" confirm the accepted date of 568/567 BCE for the astronomical data found in VAT 4956. They especially emphasize that the results of the "lunar threes" observations in VAT 4956 are not observations that would have been repeated at Metonic-cycle intervals. They give a very clear explanation of the "lunar threes" --- briefly, these were three time-intervals which were tracked and recorded each month: 1) the interval from sunset to moonset (on the first of the month); 2) sunrise to moonset (middle of the month); moonrise to sunrise (near the end of the month) --- and they explain that these usually enable one to arrive at the exact date by comparing the observed time-intervals with computer calculations. The authors conclude that "the various lunar threes in the text are quite in keeping with a date for the tablet of 568-567 B.C. In addition, reference to Table 1 reveals that even at this early date, timing errors were typically of the order of 1[degree] - no mean achievement." p. 424

Re: WT Nov. 1, 2011 (public) - When Was Ancient Jerusalem Destroyed - Part 2 posted 24 days ago (9/2/2011)

Post 1262 of 1372
Since 10/19/2001

From my post 1159, November 2007 --

The data in astronomical diary VAT 4956 was analyzed and verified by Dr. Richard Stephenson and Dr. David M. Willis. Their paper on VAT 4956 was presented at a conference on "Astronomy and Mathematics in the Ancient Near East," held in June 2001 at the British Museum. The research papers from the conference were published in 2002 in a book edited by Dr. John Steele, an archeo-astronomer in the Department of Physics at Durham University.
The title of the book is Under One Sky: Astronomy and Mathematics in the Ancient Near East (Band 297 in the series Alter Orient und Altes Testament), edited by John M. Steele and Annette Imahusen, published in 2002 by Ugarit-Verlag, Munster. The name of the article is "The Earliest Datable Observation of the Aurora Borealis," by Dr. Richard Stephenson and Dr. David M. Willis, pp. 421-428.
They discussed VAT 4956 again in an article with the same title, published in December 2004 in the journal Astronomy and Geophysics, volume 45, issue 6, pages 6.15 - 6.17: "The Earliest Datable Observation of the Aurora Borealis."
I have read (and have copies of) both articles.
The authors "confidently" confirm the accepted date of 568/567 BCE for the astronomical data found in VAT 4956.
They especially emphasize that the results of the "lunar threes" observations in VAT 4956 are not observations that would have been repeated at Metonic-cycle intervals. They give a very clear explanation of the "lunar threes" --- briefly, these were three time-intervals which were tracked and recorded each month: 1) the interval from sunset to moonset (on the first of the month); 2) sunrise to moonset (middle of the month); moonrise to sunrise (near the end of the month) --- and they explain that these usually enable one to arrive at the exact date by comparing the observed time-intervals with computer calculations. The authors conclude that "the various lunar threes in the text are quite in keeping with a date for the tablet of 568-567 B.C. In addition, reference to Table 1 reveals that even at this early date, timing errors were typically of the order of 1[degree] - no mean achievement." p. 424

Alleymom

AnnOMaly, Post 2083:

The WT writer believes the lunar positions relative to other celestial bodies (meaning stars/constellations, obviously, as the moon's (timed) positions relative to the sun have been dismissed) are more reliable for dating purposes. Stephenson and Willis seem to be saying the opposite - that Lunar Threes don't repeat cyclically and therefore tend to be distinctive to a certain year.

I've added highlighting to your post 2083 and to my post 1262 (quoting post 1159) above, for people who are just skimming.

And I will repeat:

The Lunar Three readings, by themselves, are enough to disqualify 588/587 BCE as a possible date for VAT 4956. Some of the Lunar Three intervals --- the sunrise to moonset (SR - MS) intervals ---- are impossible because the moon set BEFORE the sunrise.

Furthermore, if it is true, as many have suggested, that the Writing Dept. monitors this board, then they have known this since Nov. 2007. At the very least, they knew it when they added footnote 18a in between footnotes 18 and 19. Footnote 18a is a reference to the Stephenson/Willis article.

Just one more example of the WTS's misuse of scholarly sources.

Alleymom

JPL HORIZONS site: http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons.cgi#results

Alleymom

Last entry in column 7 of the previous chart was missing the degree symbol. Here is the corrected chart:

Alleymom

Here are the Sky View Cafe results formatted to match the JPL chart in my previous post. Don't know why it is fuzzy.

AnnOMaly

Alleymom, these are fantastic! Thanks for all your hard work and adding them to this thread

Alleymom

AnnOMaly - Note that the IMPOSSIBLE! readings are impossible impossible for 588/587 BCE! Dead-as-a-doornail impossible!

From The Princess Bride: Miracle Max (Billy Crystal): Whoo-hoo-hoo, look who knows so much. It just so happens that your friend here is only MOSTLY dead. There's a big difference between mostly dead and all dead. Mostly dead is slightly alive. WT Writing Dept. (desperately trying to spin Lunar Three results): Maybe 588/587 BCE is only MOSTLY dead. There's a big difference between MOSTLY dead and ALL dead. Mostly dead is slightly alive. Maybe the clocks were wrong.

Memo to the Writing Department -- Your proposed year of 588/587 BCE for the 37th year of Nebuchadnezzar is not just MOSTLY dead. It is ALL dead. It is not even SLIGHTLY alive! When the moon has set more than half an hour BEFORE sunrise, you can't measure the "sunrise to moonset" interval (SR - MS) because the moon isn't there to be measured! Marjorie Alley, still Keeping It Simple, Sweetie!

AnnOMaly

From never a jw's post on THIS THREAD.

--------

Here's a part of my research, only the good matches. Scroll to the right with the lower bar to see the entire table

37th year of Nabuchadnezzar or Julian Year 568/567 BC, beginning April 23, 568 (more precisely April 22 after sunset) and ending April 12, 567 BC at sunset

Month

Day

First Day

Julian

Interval

Measured

Begin

End

Interval

Degrees

Differ

Abs.

Judgement

Difference

(Babyl.)

Julian

Date

VAT 4956

Sky X

(decimal)

ence

Diff

Call

(minutes)

I

14

23-Apr

May 6, 568

SR-MS

4

5:13:42

5:30:08

0:16:26

4.11

0.11

Excellent

0.43

min.

II

26

23-May

June 17, 568

MR-SR

23

3:17:06

4:46:32

1:29:26

22.26

-0.74

0.74

Excellent

2.97

min.

III

1

21-Jun

June 20, 568

SS-MS

20

7:08:52

8:36:47

1:27:55

21.98

1.98

Good

7.92

min.

III

15

21-Jun

July 5, 568

SR-MS

7.5

4:49:11

5:23:21

0:34:10

8.54

1.04

Very good

4.17

min.

XI

1

13-Feb

Feb 12, 567

SS-MS

14.5

5:43:23

6:52:59

1:09:36

17.40

2.90

Acceptable

11.60

min.

XII

1

15-Mar

March 14, 567

SS-MS

25

6:06:26

7:49:07

1:42:41

25.67

0.67

Excellent

2.68

min.

XII

12

15-Mar

March 26, 567

SR-MS

1.5

6:08:52

6:12:00

0:03:08

0.75

-0.75

0.75

Excellent

3.00

min.

Average difference

0.74

1.17

Phizzy

I wonder what Ethos will make of this thread ? LOL

Thanks to all for contributing this excellent research, which will forever be useful, well, until the WT finally abandon their silly 607BCE thingy.

never a jw

Program used: The SkyX Light Edition

The table for Furulli's year contains up to three dates for the same babylonian date because is not clear,

at least to me, what Julian dates Furulli wanted to match with the calendar dates of the VAT 4956 lunar

threes. You will see on the far right who selected each of those three alternative dates (scroll to the right using the bar at the bottom)

Never a JW

37th year of Nabuchadnezzar or Julian Year 568/567 BC, beginning April 22 after sunset and ending April 12, 567 BC at sunset

Date

First Day

Julian

Interval

Measured

Begin

End

Interval

Degrees

Differ

Abs.

Judgment

Diff.

(Babyl.)

Julian

Date

VAT 4956

Sky X

(decimal)

ence

Diff

Call

(min.)

I-14

23-Apr

May 6, 568

SR-MS

4

5:13:42

5:30:08

0:16:26

4.11

0.11

Excellent

0.43

II-26

23-May

June 17, 568

MR-SR

23

3:17:06

4:46:32

1:29:26

22.26

-0.74

0.74

Excellent

2.97

III-1

21-Jun

June 20, 568

SS-MS

20

7:08:52

8:36:47

1:27:55

21.98

1.98

Good

7.92

III-15

21-Jun

July 5, 568

SR-MS

7.5

4:49:11

5:23:21

0:34:10

8.54

1.04

Very good

4.17

XI-1

13-Feb

Feb 12, 567

SS-MS

14.5

5:43:23

6:52:59

1:09:36

17.40

2.90

Acceptable

11.60

XII-1

15-Mar

March 14, 567

SS-MS

25

6:06:26

7:49:07

1:42:41

25.67

0.67

Excellent

2.68

XII-12

15-Mar

March 26, 567

SR-MS

1.5

6:08:52

6:12:00

0:03:08

0.75

-0.75

0.75

Excellent

3.00

Average difference

1.17

Year 588/587, beginning April 4/3, 588 and ending April 22, 587 BC at sunset

Date

First Day

Julian

Interval

Measured

Begin

End

Interval

Degrees

Differ

Abs.

Judgment

Diff.

(Babyl.)

Julian

Date

VAT 4956

Sky X

(decimal)

ence

Diff

Call

(min.)

I-14

4-Apr

April 17, 588

SR-MS

4

5:37:41

5:28:47

0:08:54

-2.23

-6.23

6.23

Very bad!!

24.90

II-26

4-May

May 29, 588

MR-SR

23

3:46:04

4:53:24

1:07:20

16.83

-6.17

6.17

Very bad

24.67

III-1

2-Jun

June 1, 588

SS-MS

20

6:58:19

7:49:56

0:51:37

12.90

-7.10

7.10

Very bad

28.38

III-15

2-Jun

June 16, 588

SR-MS

7.5

4:46:38

5:12:22

0:25:44

6.43

-1.07

1.07

Very good

4.27

XI-1

25-Jan

Jan 24, 587

SS-MS

14.5

5:26:16

6:34:10

1:07:54

16.98

2.48

Acceptable

9.90

XII-1

24-Feb

Feb 23, 587

SS-MS

25

5:52:22

7:43:13

1:50:51

27.71

2.71

Acceptable

10.85

XII-12

24-Feb

March 7, 587

SR-MS

1.5

6:35:09

6:06:42

0:28:27

-7.11

-8.61

8.61

Very bad!!

34.45

Average difference

4.91

In penultimate column the exclamation points indicate an impossible measurement

Year 588/587, beginning May 3/2, 588 -- according to R. Furruli / Watchtower calendar

Date

First Day

Julian

Interval

Measured

Begin

End

Interval

Degrees

Differ

Abs.

Judgement

Diff.

(Babyl.)

Julian

Date

VAT 4956

Sky X

(decimal)

ence

Diff

Call

(min.)

I-14

3-May

May 17, 588

SR-MS

4

5:02:38

5:08:25

0:05:47

1.45

-2.55

2.55

Acceptable

10.22

Hunger

May 16, 588

SR-MS

4

5:03:33

4:32:52

0:30:41

-7.67

-11.67

11.67

Very Bad!!

46.68

Ann, N a JW

II-26

1-Jun

June 28, 588

MR-SR

23

3:35:56

4:47:06

1:11:10

17.79

-5.21

5.21

Very bad

20.83

Hunger

June 26, 588

MR-SR

23

2:22:11

4:46:45

2:24:34

36.14

13.14

Very bad

52.57

Never a JW

June 27, 588

MR-SR

23

2:57:43

4:46:55

1:49:12

27.30

4.30

Bad

17.20

AnnOMaly

III-1

1-Jul

July 1, 588

SS-MS

20

7:11:30

8:20:16

1:08:46

17.19

-2.81

2.81

Acceptable

11.23

Hunger

June 30, 588

SS-MS

20

7:11:58

7:30:58

0:19:00

4.75

-15.25

15.25

Bad

61.00

Ann, N a JW

III-15

1-Jul

July 16, 588

SR-MS

7.5

4:54:22

5:57:52

1:03:30

15.88

8.38

Very bad

33.50

Hunger

July 15, 588

SR-MS

7.5

4:53:48

4:51:30

0:02:18

-0.58

-8.08

8.08

Very bad !!

32.30

Ann, N a JW

XI-1

23-Feb

Feb 22, 587

SS-MS

14.5

5:51:34

6:32:15

0:40:41

10.17

-4.33

4.33

Bad

17.32

H, Ann, N a JW

XII-1

24-Mar

March 24, 587

SS-MS

25

6:12:52

7:38:12

1:25:20

21.33

-3.67

3.67

Bad

14.67

Hunger, Ann

March 23, 587

SS-MS

25

6:12:14

6:28:27

0:16:13

4.14

-20.86

20.86

Very bad

83.45

Never a JW

XII-12

24-Mar

April 7, 587

SR-MS

1.5

5:51:56

6:11:20

0:19:24

4.85

3.35

Bad

13.40

Hunger

April 4, 587

SR-MS

1.5

5:56:12

4:42:34

1:13:38

18.41

-19.91

19.91

Very bad !!

79.63

Never a JW

April 5, 587

SR-MS

1.5

5:54:47

5:13:49

0:40:58

10.24

-11.74

11.74

Very Bad!!

46.97

AnnOMaly

Average difference

8.43

4.33

13.32

for dates chosen by

AnnOMaly

Hunger

N a JW

Excellent

Under 3 minutes

Very good

Under 6 minutes

Good

Under 9 minutes

Acceptable

Under 12 minutes

Bad

Between 12 and 20 min.

Very bad

Over 20 minutes

VAT 4956 - Comparison Of The Lunar Three Time Intervals For Years 568/7 BCE and 588/7 BCE

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