Yearbook figures =Over 70,000 Witnesses leave the truth after 1975...and the Society claims only "SOME responsibilty" in the 1980 Yearbook!!

by Witness 007 6 Replies latest watchtower scandals

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  Witness 007

  Publisher figures: 1974 - 2,021,432

  1975 - 2,179,256 (up by 157,000 WOW}

  1976- 2,248,390 {up by 69,134}

  1977 - 2,223,538 {down by 24,892}

  1978 - 2,182,341 {down by 41,197} .........TOTAL LOSS OF AROUND 70,000

  1979- 2,186,075 {up by ONLY 3,734 lowest increase ever}

  Yearbook 1980 had an apology from the Governing body on page 30-31 ".........the Society accepts SOME of the responsibilty for the disapointment felt regarding the year 1975....."

  Many faithful longtime Brothers left the "truth" forever after 1975....yet the society accepted "some" of the responsibilty...so who ELSE was to blame???? They were only following instructions from them! No one or two Brothers went out on a limb making huge claims about Armagedon in 1975...they ALL did! You would be disfellowshipped if you started making your own speculations.....unless your name is Fredrick Franz.
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  TheOldHippie

  Don't forget 1 % die each year, so with a death rate of 20,000 each year, from 1976 to 1979 in all 60,000 would have died. 2,248,000 less the 60,000 results in 2,188,000 - and the "real" loss therefore is no more than 2,000. The death rate is so very often forgotten by those who try to calculate how many have left etc.

  TOH
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  Witness 007

  "Oldhippy".......WTF man! Your figures are all messed up. Think of the thousands of new publisher coming in like my Mother who was studying in 1976. {And was never told about the 75 "mix up"} There were at least 3,000 publishers in AUSTRALIA alone who left!....I know many of them. For many years the Watchtower bucket had a huge hole in it....but the kept filling it with new ignorant publishers. The same loss happened in 1925 when a HUGE dip occured in publisher figures.....not due to mass deaths though!!!!!!
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  Witness 007

  I think a better figure of those leaving after 1975 would be between 100-150,000 publishers when you see a yearly average increase of 100-200,000.....I just gave the offical Yearbook figures.....for the society to publish an offical semi-apology, it must have been huge!!!!!!
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  TheOldHippie

  I am not trying to argue against the fact that many left, but my figures are definitely not all messed up. You cannot deny that people die, and you cannot deny that the overall death rate is 1% annually. So if you someone points to a figure of say 2 million and next year's 1.98 million and based on that tries to state 20,000 left - he seriously errs, because those 20,000 are accounted for by the death rate.

  People left, sure. But people died too. That's all I'm saying - don't forget the death rate.
• 

  sir82

  True, don't forget the death rate, but also don't foret the 10's of thousands of new baptisms during that peiod as well.

  No matter how you slice it, for 3 or 4 years far more people left than were coming in. Not a "huge" difference, but compared to the fantastic conversion rate prior to 1975, it was an enormous shock.
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  Mad Sweeney

  If we are going to include the death rate (-1%) in these numbers, we also need to include the birth rate from approximately 10 years earlier (approximately +1.8%), as kids born in "the truth" are almost certainly going to become publishers by the time they're 10. The raw growth/decrease numbers end up virtually the same when you include these (meaning it is practical and harmless to NOT include either one). Including death rates without also including birth rates smacks of the sort of dishonest reporting we have all grown accustomed to seeing from the Borg.

  Publisher figures: 1974 - 2,021,432

  1975 - 2,179,256 (up by 157,000 WOW}

  2179256 - {2021432x.99(subtracting 1% for death rate) + 1034268x.018 (adding in 1965 born-ins)} = 159,421 growth

  1976- 2,248,390 {up by 69,134}

  2248390 - {2179256x.99(subtracting 1% death rate) + 1058675x.018 (adding in 1966 born-ins)}= 71871 growth

  1977 - 2,223,538 {down by 24,892}

  2223538 - {2248390x.99 (subtracting 1% death rate) + 1094280x.018 (adding in 1967 born-ins)} = 22065 DEcrease

  1978 - 2,182,341 {down by 41,197} .........TOTAL LOSS OF AROUND 70,000

  2182341 - {2223538x.99 (subtracting 1% death rate) + 1221504x.018 (adding in 1968 born-ins)} = 40949 DEcrease

  1979- 2,186,075 {up by ONLY 3,734 lowest increase ever}

  2186075 - {2182341x.99 (subtracting 1% death rate) + 1256784x.018 (adding in 1969 born-ins)} = 2935 growth