Can you understand this reasoning?

by uncle_onion 8 Replies latest jw friends

  • uncle_onion
    uncle_onion

    Hi

    I found this site that Says it had the Biblical answer for everything! ...www.abundantbible.org so I posed them a question. He is the dialogue:

    Saw your site. You wrote : 8. There would be an increase in earthquakes-Mt 24:2,3,7; Mk 13:8; Lk 21:11. This prophecy is correct. That’s 8 out of 8.
    Note: Research from the U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center reveals that in 1986, the total number of earthquakes was 12,718. In 1990, it was 16,612. In 1994, it was 19,371. This will culminate during the Battle of Armageddon, AFTER THE TRIBULATION OF THOSE DAYS. At that time, there will be an earthquake that will shake the world. The cities of the nations will fall.

    I have contacted the above and they stated that earthquakes have not increased?

    Uncle onion

    They wrote back:

    Thank you for visiting our site. May we suggest that before you accuse someone of publishing false information (lying) that you do a little better research and don't rely on what other people tell you. Do your own research!

    Attached to this email is a word document with the statistical charts right off of the Governments website. Look for your self. I have highlighted in red the yearly totals. You may search out the information from their website to verify the charts at the following URL: http://wwwneic.cr.usgs.gov/neis/eqlists/eqstats.html

    If they are not increasing then please tell us, exactly what it is you think they are doing?

    Thank you

    ******************************************************************************

    I wrote back:

    I Contacted them a year ago and they told me categorically that Earthquakes are NOT increasing. Ask them yourself and they will tell you (as they told me) that because we have more detection equipment now we recognise more earthquakes. I suggest that you do your own research and ask their opinions of their research and not form your own opinions.

    Uncle onion

    Them:

    -----Original Message-----
    From: [email protected] [mailto: [email protected]]
    Sent: 16 November 2001 22:40
    To: [email protected]
    Subject: Re: question

    That's rather peculiar reasoning. If they have more detection equipment and are detecting more earthquakes. Then it would stand to reason that had they possessed the same eauipment during previous years, then those numbers would also be higher. So then, since they did not have said equipment, please explain to us exactly what they are basing their comparisons with since there are supposedly no readings from previous years to compare them?

    What kind of time frame are they saying that the quakes are not increasing in? Six months, a year, two years? What? Also, we did not base are statements on their website alone. We also spoke to several people there and found conflicting stories.

    We can line up geologist on both sides of the isles to confirm both sides. However, we chose to print the official findings of the agency. Which is as I sent you. And which, I might add is current through 5-2001. If they want to say that these numbers are not accurate, then they should take them off their website and post new findings. Until then, our statement stands!

    And just for the record, We really do not put much faith in anything they tell us or post. However, we related their figures because they are the only supposedly reliable source of stats.

    I really do not mean this issue to become a point of contention between us. And I think I was a bit sharp with you in my previous email. Please forgive me.

    God Bless you.

    ****************************************

    Me:

    I don’t want to labour the point here.

    You wrote:

    “That's rather peculiar reasoning. If they have more detection equipment and are detecting more earthquakes. Then it would stand to reason that had they possessed the same eauipment during previous years, then those numbers would also be higher. So then, since they did not have said equipment, please explain to us exactly what they are basing their comparisons with since there are supposedly no readings from previous years to compare them?”

    Ask them yourself as I have. They will tell you that the equipment has become more sensitive and therefore erecords more. Ask them yourself and they will tell you that earthquakes are not increasing.

    “We can line up geologist on both sides of the isles to confirm both sides.”

    Then why do you only quote ones that agree with you. Is that not dishonest?

    However, we chose to print the official findings of the agency. Which is as I sent you. And which, I might add is current through 5-2001. If they want to say that these numbers are not accurate, then they should take them off their website and post new findings. Until then, our statement stands!

    And just for the record, We really do not put much faith in anything they tell us or post. However, we related their figures because they are the only supposedly reliable source of stats.

    Then why do you put it on your web site?

    I really do not mean this issue to become a point of contention between us. And I think I was a bit sharp with you in my previous email. Please forgive me.

    No problem but I would like an answer back please.

    **********************************

    Now they start geting nasty:

    I've got a great idea for you. Since you like asking them stuff. Why don't you ask them why they don't correct their website? Why are they supposedly saying one thing but posting another?

    **************************************************************

    I wrote back:
    For your information, here is the relevant part of their web site

    Q: Why are we having so many earthquakes? Has earthquake activity been increasing?

    A: Although it may seem that we are having more earthquakes, earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or greater have remained fairly constant throughout this century and, according to our records, have actually seemed to decrease in recent years. A partial explanation may lie in the fact that in the last twenty years, we have definitely had an increase in the number of earthquakes we have been able to locate each year. This is because of the tremendous increase in the number of seismograph stations in the world and the many improvements in global communications. In 1931, there were about 350 stations operating in the world; today, there are more that 4,000 stations and the data now comes in rapidly from these stations by telex, computer and satellite. This increase in the number of stations and the more timely receipt of data has allowed us and other seismological centers to locate many small earthquakes which were undetected in earlier years, and we are able to locate earthquakes more rapidly. The NEIC now locates about 12,000 to 14,000 earthquakes each year or approximately 35 per day. Also, because of the improvements in communications and the increased interest in natural disasters, the public now learns about more earthquakes. According to long-term records (since about 1900), we expect about 18 major earthquakes (7.0 - 7.9) and one great earthquake (8.0 or above) in any given year. However, let's take a look at what has happened in the past 32 years, from 1969 through 2001, so far. Our records show that 1992, and 1995-1997 were the only years that we have reached or exceeded the long-term average number of major earthquakes since 1971. In 1970 and in 1971 we had 20 and 19 major earthquakes, respectively, but in other years the total was in many cases well below the 18 per year which we may expect based on the long-term average.

    See NEIC's Earthquake Statistics webpage for the tables of earthquake counts by magnitude

  • Fredhall
    Fredhall

    Uncle Onion,

    Are you trying to tell us that you are smarter than Jesus?

  • patio34
    patio34

    That's very interesting UO. It brings to mind how easily statistics can be skewed by unscrupulous religionists. There are 3 kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.

    One needs the whole story to get a proper interpretation. And then, some statistician's explanation, as you have.

    Thanks.
    Pat

  • funkyderek
    funkyderek
    Are you trying to tell us that you are smarter than Jesus?

    That's typical JW "reasoning" and Fred, even you should know better. Just because The facts show that the Watchtower is lying has nothing to do with Jesus at all.

    --
    Those who can induce you to believe absurdities can induce you to commit attrocities - Voltaire

  • Englishman
    Englishman

    Uncle Onion,

    Maybe the only way to detect any increase would be to add up all the Richter scale measurements over several one year periods. I mean 4 earth quakes at level 2 are nothing like as devastating as one earthquake at level 8, but would still be counted as 4 times as many.

    Englishman.

    Nostalgia isn't what it used to be....

  • ISP
    ISP

    UO...I don't think you are going to get anywhere. Even if the detection equipment is more sensitive...they will say 'see told you'.

    ISP

  • Gozz
    Gozz

    You're missing the point.

    During the last days, there will be more earthquakes. We believe we are evidently in the last days, as the evidence clearly shows, so then the earthquakes must have increased. If the measurements show they have not, then the sensitive equipment must be faulty...It was Carl sagan who said something to the effect that beneath fervent religious belief lies the lack of rational enquiry.

  • zerubberballz
    zerubberballz

    Hey SirFRed,

    What did Jesus invent or say that was remotely original? It ain't too hard to be smarter than Jesus, particularly if, as you alledge, he was the god who came to earth in 1919 and gave all his possessions to Judge Rutherford.

    quak'n, shak'n, earthmov'n, unclebruce

  • OUTLAW
    OUTLAW

    Hey Uncle Onion,when your having an argument with a bible thumper,never confuse the issue with facts!(lol)...OUTLAW

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