2005 - The year the Society began its decline (without anyone noticing)!

by cedars 112 Replies latest watchtower beliefs

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  Fencing

  I somewhat agree with Billy about 2001, though I would argue the mental decline actually started right around '96 with the change to the generation doctrine, and solidified at the turn of the century. It took a few more years for that reality to fully set in, as people realized that the "end" was basically open-ended now, there was no immediate goal to look to on the horizon, and the zeal was all but sapped out of the WTS.

  If you look at the growth numbers, it backs that up. Growth in the early 90s was always between 4.5-6%, with the trend line slowly dropping as you approach 1994 (80 years from 1914, i.e., the lifespan of a humany being "80 years in case of special mightiness" that a lot of people were clinging on). Bit of an uptick in '95, but before the generation change comes into play. Then the generation change happens. 1996 growth drops by one whole point which was the biggest single year drop in a while. It goes into freefall after that, with a huge 1.6 point drop between 98 and 99, which happens to correspond to when the internet started getting mainstream.

  It finally hits 1.7% in 2001. Another uptick in 2002 to 2.8%, which is most likely because of 9/11 getting some formerly inactive JW's (and the public at large's) fears up. 2005, cedar's year in question, was a new low at 1.3%.
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  designs

  Fencing- 1995-96, agree, the first generation change really started an exodus.
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  Finkelstein

  http://www.freeminds.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=3236:why-the-watch-tower-society-is-already-in-decline&catid=31:governing-body&Itemid=346

  Good essay Cedars , informative and to the point, there's definitely trouble in Watchtowerland.

  Seems that the people at the top of this organization (GB), work as far as to keep the organization fluent up to at least

  to their own perceived life expectancy. Then when they are gone the next generation of GB members holds the bag for themselves,

  which usually involves doing some doctrinal changes.

  The two things that can keep them afloat is that they can still say they are gods chosen organization

  and they can still say the end is near, provoking fear into people to over look why they are saying those things in the first place,

  as well to cause people to over look the corrupt means in how they exploit the bible and its supportable belief, to serve their own agenda.
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  jws

  Maybe this is finally a balancing of the donation system for literature combined with economic pressure. Back in the day, everybody would buy a ton of magazines when they were pretty cheap. When you didn't place them all, they went in a pile that got bigger and bigger. Sometimes you'd give them to pioneers to leave at the door on not-at-homes or you'd leave them in laundromats.

  Now, "prices" on literature have gone up. With economic times being what they are, are the donations coming in for what they place? Do the JWs have to ante up money when they didn't get any in return. And let's face it, most JWs are not exactly doctors and lawyers. They face economic pressures too. Does this make them a little less likely to over-order magazines every month? And even when I was still in, I remember occasionally being encouraged not to give away free magazines so often because people would expect to not have to pay for them at the door.

  And do you have circulation data to go along with the page counts? For all you know, a magazine might have half the pages, but increased circulation to offset that.

  And what of them offering more online? Do some JWs reduce their monthly subscription because they can read about the same amount online as they do on paper? After all, JWs are not immune to the concept of reducing paper consumption. And the "green" movement has also been ramping up it's efforts over the past few years.

  You know it occurs to me that over the years so many ex-JWs are trying to point to a year they started to decline that we almost sound like the JWs themselves, trying to pinpoint a moment when the final wrap-up to armageddon begins. What's it been from our side? 1976 when the end didn't come in 1975? Early 80's when Franz defected? 1994 when the generation was changed for the first time? 2005 when literature changed? Whenever the home book study was cut? 2011 when the 1914 generation changed to an overlapping generation last summer? Or back to when Judge Rutherford took over and several defected?

  IMO, it's been declining for a long time. Probably the modern organization's decline "began" when 1975 failed. Other events are just additional things that speed the rate of decline, not begin it anew.

  The Society "beginning it's decline" with any recent events would be a misnomer, IMO.
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  stapler99

  I figure it takes about 20 years for a religion to become moribund. If people have children between the ages of 20 and 40, and no children stay in the religion over 20 years, then at the end of the 20 years everyone in the religion is over 40 and is past the point of no return. If we say that broadband internet really started getting popular round about 2005 (e.g. that was the year that YouTube was launched), then this points to 2025 as a tipping point. (Of course, this is just a rough estimate and not all children leave.) The religion will almost certainly carry on in some form in some countries but will likely be very different.
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  jws

  Apostate JW sites were educating people way before 2005. Broadband has little to do with it. Sure, there's some nice videos now. But sites like this one and others were big since the mid-90's exposing the JWs. Even though I was already gone, I remember reading about the generation change on the internet in the mid-90's. And you don't need broadband for content like this site. I wouldn't personally credit broadband or 2005 for internet damage. I was learning more and more even on 56Kbps modems.
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  baltar447

  jws, I disagree. With the pentration of high speed access and the ubiquity of internet access and computer technology, more people, more numbers of people are online. Thus more eyeballs for searching on google about JWs.
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  life is to short

  I just poped on for a minute and saw your thread Cedars so I am marking for later. I always love your take the WT and am looking forward to reading this later. Thanks for what I am sure will be a great post.

  LITS
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  jws

  Sure there are more people searching on JWs now, but you'll be able to say that every year in the future for several years to come. 2005 as a turning point and because of broadband? Probably not.

  Penetration of the internet is what generates more searching, not, IMO, speed. And a lot of good info is out there that is accessible even with minimal speeds. Now there's broadband like fiber optics, before that there was DSL, and before that 56Kbps modems. And info has been there all along. Many people on this board, like me, have been here prior to 2005. And when I joined there were a lot of people here.

  Even in the late 90's, I knew very few people without e-mail addresses. If you don't have internet access, you usually don't have an e-mail account. So penetration was out there as far as I could see.

  Maybe I'm blind to the rest of the world living in a large city, but I had broadband way before 2005. And so did the other city-dwellers I knew. 2005 was nothing special. And before that, they were online with DSL and before that 56Kbps.
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  Sic Semper Tyrannis

  Jimmy Swaggart getting sued in California in the 80's and the advent of the internet in the 90's did more to bury the Society than 1975, the Great Apostasy of 1980 and Ray Franz combined. I noticed the general decline with the new literature arrangment and eventual discarding of the entire notion of feeding people at assemblies. During assemblies, eating the food the Society provided was a big deal and kept the social bonds tight among Witnesses. Once the food was gone, the life seemed to drain out of those assemblies as people were forced to go out for lunch or bring cold and unappetizing food from home. I still have fond memories about the frozen pudding, Shasta cola, orange juice, the assembly burritos, and the hoagies. Now they are just a part of the ever-distant past related by the old-timers. They have gone the way of the seven-day conventions. The only life in the assemblies now are the groups that travel together and meet for dinner at the hotels. The lunch break is now a forced and awkward event, almost like they are letting you have a toilet break.

  I too see the growing possibility of decline in numbers. As the "Baby-Boomer" generation in the US starts to die off, those numbers will become more apparent. While it is still a large enough organization to see them continuing well into this century, they will start to become something more fitting of a remnant - a rump organization. Another sign to look for would be them "simplifying" the assembly arrangement, possibly shrinking it to one event a year, and maybe even only meeting as a circuit. I wouldn't completely discount the possibility of some sort of eventful collapse in numbers and hours. Unfortunately, there will be plenty of die-hards in every family, and I can count on at least two in mine. What other life do they know? I can see my father packing up and moving to Patterson if they even hinted at it. I just share a sense of deep regret that this inevitable decline couldn't have happened a lot sooner and before my time. Perhaps this organization would have not had the detrimental effect on my life as it did.