JWs, as well as other creationists as far as I know, use the argument that the odds of life starting on its own, from a mere mix of chemicals are beyond the mathematically acceptable limits and therefore life must have been designed by a higher being.
My study conductor, a window washer by trade (no, really, this is not a jab at the guy’s choice of making a living) told me that those odds were calculated to be beyond 1:1x10100and statistically anything over 1:1x1050is considered impossible. I can understand the odds. For example, the 5 billion years our precious planet has been in existence translates to “only” 1.5768x1017 seconds…We have a long way to go to anything x1050
So what are the chances that YOU, not your full blooded or half sibling or even your identical twin, are reading this today?
Let’s make a simple calculation.
We will assume that your parents already know each other and are planning to start a family with one child – YOU.
On average, children are born within a 15 year time window (age difference between oldest and youngest). In some developing countries the window is wider, in others narrower, but 15 years is a good starting point.
There are 180 months in 15 years and therefore ideally180 possible fertile eggs on the femile side of the equation. An egg is fertile for about 3 days during ovulation.
During intercourse (at ejaculation), the male counterpart “deposits” no less than 20-50 million sperm. Let’s be really conservative and say only 3 million made it in any shape, way or form to be able to fertilize the egg. Time that by 3 for the 3 most likely days of this to happen and by the 180 times this can happen overt the 15 years of family growth and you have:
3,000,000 x 3 x 180 = 1.62 billion
So the odds of YOU being YOU with the same parents are less that 1:1.5x109
Congratulations!! YOU have overcome some pretty tough odds.
In order for YOU to be YOU, your parents have to have been THEM. Their odds of being THEM are no better than 1:1.5x109 EACH!!!
If we apply the same ideal scenario as above, YOUR odds of being YOU have now diminished to only
3 x (1:1.5x109 ) = 1:4.5x1027 !!!
Shall we take this one level deeper?
There are 4 grandparents required for YOU to be here today, each with their own 1:1.5x109 odds of being THEM.
Going back only 2 generations have put the odds of YOU being YOU to an astonishing
7 x (1:1.5x109 ) = 1:1.05x1063
1:1.05x10 63 , way beyond the statistically acceptable threshold of possibility….
Yet, YOU are here today reading this!
Shall we attempt to apply the math for the 24,000+ generations of the “6,000 year human existence on Earth”? I think not.
The above is an illustration where the same logic used by creationists to dismiss the possibility of life somehow starting on its own, rules them out of existence today.
Those odds CAN NOT be applied retroactively. This is where the notion of using odds to dismiss Abiogenesis fails miserably.
Please note that this is not an attempt to disprove creationist’s views and beliefs, it only illustrates the misuse of one more tool in the process.