He he he!

You had me going there............ A research scientist who can't spell per se ?

Englishman. Python appreciator class.

..... fanaticism masquerading beneath a cloak of reasoned logic.

Er, what a brilliant analysis....the implications are staggering....

Perhaps your research indicates why, as a young boy, whenever I went to a meeting with a magnet in my pocket, I had an almost uncontrollable urge to be a Pioneer....

Thank you Lark for some intelligent questions.

To start with, while we used simple correlation in the initial working of the data, we used least squares spectral analysis for basing our findings on. Here is the abstract of our paper that explains a little more about this:

(snip)
In order to examine whether non-photic solar effects may influence (religious) motivation, yearly data on activities in behalf of their church by Jehovah's Witnesses from 1950 to 1999 were analyzed chronobiologically to assess their time structure (chronome), insofar as it is evaluable in yearly means for up to half a century. Data on the average number of hours per month spent proselytizing, available from 103 different geographic locations as well as grand totals also including other sites, were analyzed by least squares spectra in a frequency range from one cycle in 42 to one in 2.1 years. Each data series was also analyzed by the nonlinear least squares fit of a model consisting of a linear trend and a cosine curve with a trial period of 21.0 years corresponding numerically to that of the Hale cycle. An about 21.0-year component could be statistically validated nonlinearly in about 70% of the data series by the non-overlap of zero by the 95% confidence interval (95% CI) of the non-linearly computed amplitude. Estimates of MESOR (midline-estimating statistic of rhythm, a rhythm- [or chronome-] adjusted mean), amplitude and period were further regressed with geomagnetic latitude. The period estimate does not depend on geomagnetic latitude; the amplitude tends to be larger at low and middle latitudes than closer to the poles. The resolution of the about 21.0-year cycle, gauged by the width of 95% confidence intervals for the period and amplitude, however, is higher (the 95% CI is smaller) near the poles than around the equator. An about 21.0-year period was also found in the (equatorial) u-index from Niemegk but not in the aa-index. Near-matches of periods in solar activity and human motivation hint that the former may influence the latter, while the correlation with latitude constitute evidence that geomagnetic activity may affect certain brain areas involved in motivation, just as it was earlier found that it is associated with effects upon the "grids" of the heart.
(end snip)

In short though, the findings have a 95% confidence level and are significant.

To answer your question regarding other confounding variables, yes we were able to determine several influences upon motivational behavior. Some of these included bans on the open preaching activity, the economy, persecution, how “colonized” a country was already with JW’s, and the prophetic disconfirmation of 1975. In normal sociological statistical work, such outliers would be subtracted from the data to give the data a “better fit.” This sometimes causes critical reviews of other researchers because it is a judgment call. In our case, we left all the outliers in place because our findings were strong enough to support it without any manipulation of the data. The bottom line then, is that the motivational factor was strong enough to be seen through all the noise.

The ability to forecast into the future with this data is limited to very general predictions. The solar terrestrial interface that produces ultra-low frequency fluctuations of the magnetosphere is not fully understood. Further, the dynamics between the solar wind bulk speed, the proton temperature, and other factors that affect the magnetosphere are somewhat complex and scientists can only make comparative predictions about how the geomagnetic field will react. There are other factors that include such things as the ionization of the upper atmosphere, and local geomagnetic phenomena that come into play as well. Having said all this, there are several projects in the works that will eventually allow us to predict with better accuracy the effect of geomagnetism on the encephalon but they may be some years off.

Your last question, “Do you think these cycles affect all motivated behavior or do they affect religious ideation in some particular way?” is of special interest to me. Actually, at this point I’m not sure. You may be aware that University of California at San Diego scientists discovered an area in the frontal lobes of the human brain that seems to relate to religious feelings. This got the general nickname, “The God Spot” fairly quickly. It is feasible that the geomagnetic field is stimulating this part of the brain. On the other hand, in the Chronobiological science field (in which I work) there are many other studies being done or have been done on the relationship with human behavior and geomagnetics.

Here is another snip from our paper that makes brief reference to other studies related to this subject:

(snip)
Schizophrenia, a condition associated with motivational deficit (Gruzelier, 2000), reportedly can be affected by geomagnetic activity (Friedman et al., 1963, 1965; Persinger, 1987). Katz (1980) studied aspects of the temporal structure of motivation. Focus so far, however, was placed on circadian and ultradian components (Hashimoto, 1991; Kohsaka et al., 1999).

Geomagnetic influences have been documented in relation to suicides (Stoupel et al., 1995, 2000) and melatonin (Weydahl et al, this issue), which is latitude-dependent (Tarquini et al., 1997; Wetterberg et al., 1999) produced largely by the gut (Huether, 1993; Bubenik et al., 2000) and the pineal, itself interacting closely with the hypothalamus, identified by Zilov et al. (1983, 1985) as a motivational center.
(end snip)

My own personal current research involves a computational analysis of other animal species to determine if there are geomagnetic relationships with neurocortical activity. I also am working with numerous international surveys of national happiness to see if there are both geomagnetic and chronobiological relationships.

Finally, thank you for your suggestion for publishing in the Psychological Bulletin. Actually though, I was thinking of publishing it in a more general journal to get exposure to the layman. However, this may be of little interest to most Jehovah’s Witnesses as there is ample evidence that their belief system is flawed but they keep on going and going…

P.S. one small correction in my original post, I said 108 countries, it was 103 countries.

sure, they need all the exposure they can get. let us know when your articles are published.

: A few months ago I, along with a team of international scientists, published a scientific paper that addressed a neural-behavioral discovery I had made many years ago that involved Jehovah’s Witnesses. The paper was published by Dr. Kuniaki Otsuka, and is part of a series on Biomedicine and Pharmacotherapy, published by Elsevier in Holland

They're butt-heads. Is that it?

Henry

Interesting. I would suppose that the JW’s were picked because you had ‘been there’. But, on second thought, they happen to be one religion that has an obsession with numeric icons???. That does make it convenient, doesn’t it? A good and practical choice.

But I’m with Larc on this; that is about other influences. He brought up 1975:

“Are there any confounding variables? One I can think of, is the excitement over 1975 which caused a great increase in activity, followed by a drop-off in 1976.”

For instance, you mentioned Japan as being ‘on the geomagnetic equator’ & therefore being of a high incidence, relative to the USA. Incidentally the USA, being the JW origin, has traditionally held high numbers, probably due to the greater central activity of the headquarters. However, currently, the Japanese seem to be on the decline. Please check w/ the local Japanese correspondent, Duggan/JWD, I believe. He has posted on this in some detail, though not recently.

I would call this a ‘confounding variable’. Also, it looks like there is some other ‘prophecy integrity’ problems and potential scandalous matters coming to the fore this year and for the past several years. These would seem to be a ‘headwind’ to your current ‘tailwind’ effect. This might have the effect of indicating a ‘plateau’ now and a steeper fall later, relative to the trends you had mentioned previously.

It has been noted that the WTS is a well-oiled Business engine, their Engineering efficiency is adequate but not the best and that they are highly proficient with the Legal Beagles.

Business & Engineering wise, they could be hurt by the changing scenery with the Internet. And book publishing could take a backseat to such forms of modern endeavor as WTS would not endorse or utilize.

While motivational psychology is probably more important to the JW’s than the Bible actually is, it must be remembered that they ultimately are up against their ability to ‘throw the dice’ and call the shots on the ‘god business’. A few bad calls here will wipe out all the positive pulls that motivational psychology can ever add to their progress. Of course, their Legal squad will seek to enhance those deficiencies.

A ‘mainstreaming’ effort in the endgame might save the day for them. In that event, their uniqueness would go away and the numbers would stabilize or even come back up.

I see that Alan is all set to do a Fourier analysis for you, Larc. Since Alan has probably built a Spectrum Analyzer, you are in good hands, LOL.

Mustang

PS. Mindchild, I will email you w/ something of a similar nature, but totally 'off topic' to this board.

PS#2.
DISCLAIMER #2:

Anything that I write on this posting (and prior posting's on this site and the previous H2O’s) is (or was) intended as an expression of both personal Religious Freedom and Freedom of Speech, as guaranteed in the 1st Amendment to the Constitution of the United States, as the "free exercise", as well as "freedom of speech" clauses.

this is a fascinating follow-up to the 'god spot' studies mentioned. this is not as loony as it probably sounds at first either. one should not get the impression that you could look at publisher and hour numbers and visibly see a rise and fall every 21 years. this is a subtle influence seen using the mathematical analysis described above by alanf. extrapolating from the years mentioned, i gather that these were periods of hi or lo magnetic influence on religious activities:

2002-2005 hi
1991-1994 lo
1981-1984 hi
1970-1973 lo
1960-1963 hi
1949-1951 lo
1939-1941 hi
1928-1930 lo
1918-1920 hi (JW rebirth)
1907-1909 lo
1897-1899 hi
1886-1888 lo
1876-1878 hi (WT founded)

some interesting comparisons can be made if i indeed have gotten this right. the fact that the early 70's being a low period is supported by unaltered statistics of high JW growth during this time makes the conclusions compelling, altho i would really like to see this paper myself.

thanks for the post

mox

Hello Again Lark,

A few brief replies to your questions. First, as to your questions about spectral analysis, Alan F. below did a excellent job in explaining the basics so I won’t expand on this. Regarding geomagnetic vs. electromagnetic effects, we are essentially talking about the same thing. In the electromagnetic spectrum, there are extremely long radio waves which are known as ULFR (ultra low frequency radiation) that instead of being measured in cycles per second as we do with most electromagnetic waves, are measured in seconds or even minutes per cycle. These very long radio waves are generally known as geomagnetic pulsations as they are created by the very large magnetosphere of our planet. A similar type of radiation is the ultra low frequency radio waves used in communicating with submarines under the surface of the sea.

When I mentioned a 300% difference, I was talking about monthly publisher averages for different countries. Typically northern latitude countries see publisher hours somewhere around 10 hours a month, whereas some countries around the geomagnetic equator see over 30 hours a month of preaching activity.

The proximity of the geomagnetic equator and the geographical equator are somewhat similar and in the same general region but it does not follow lines of latitude and is only grossly approximate. Furthermore, the geomagnetic lines of force vary with time over decades along with geomagnetic field strength (generally decreasing in intensity globally).

Yes, there has been some experimental work done already in scientific labs around the world. I personally have built and done some experimental work myself with a device that artificially produces such geomagnetic pulsations and the results were somewhat disturbing, because of the very strong effect it had on me. It disrupted my sleep/wake cycle for weeks, and gave me an effect very similar to that of a mild amphetamine overdose. More controlled and regulated experiments have been conducted and some amazing results are pouring in. Low frequency EM pulsing of the brain is now being used in helping people overcome depression without drugs. Some investigators have produced visual hallucinations of a religious nature using time varying magnetic fields. Some of the normal and healthy test subjects report seeing Jesus or angels and talking to God. There is also information coming in showing that some frequencies of ULFR are having strong negative effects in biological systems, causing or amplifying disease. In short, there is a wealth of experimental and analytical work being done with both human and animal studies in experimental and epidemiological studies. Only time will tell if these prove to have value.

Skipper

P.S. The visual imagery and imagination found in Biblical writings may well have been due in part to neural stimulation of human brains by geomagnetic influences. There is growing archeological evidence that ancient cultures roughly followed the sunspot cycle in periods of creativity. Julian Janes, in his seminal book, “The Origin of Consciousness and the Breakdown of the Bicameral Mind” suggests a plausible evolutionary scenario by which religious visions became incorporated into Biblical script. I find this much more interesting than the Watch Tower explanation which is full of magical thinking and gross fantasy in terms of providing explanations for past events.

After reading this post I have made a scientific discovery of my own. I am way too blonde.
I was told that if I read my watchtower & awake magazines that I would understand this stuff. OK, so I didn't read them.
I'll just pretend I understood it.
Great Info.

Hi Abaddon,

Glad to hear from you! Yes, one member of our team found similar membership cycles for about a half dozen different religious groups. However, this remains to be seen how effectively this models "motivational" behavior as these membership records are rather "loose" in application (namely you can attend a church once in a year and be labeled a member.) Thus, a little messy for publishing but we remain hopeful that other soical indicators will show more promsing results.

Anyway, life is good dude. I hope the same holds true for you.

Skipper